I 摘要 GL电器公司在全球空调行业发展中是名列前茅的，有着强大生产、研发、销售 队伍体系，更是我国空调行业的龙头企业，GL电器公司已经出口到100多个国家， 在海内外有着良好的口碑与声誉。GL电器公司由于发展前景好，属于行业中的佼佼 者，GL公司引起很多投资者或者机构的关注，GL电器公司自1996年上市，一直受 到很多投资者的跟踪。基于此本文以GL电器公司为具体案例，结合财务分析方法、 估值计算方法，从多角度的测算GL电器公司的投资价值，帮助投资者能够更清晰的 认识GL电器公司，作出科学的决策。 本文采取自由现金流折现法与市盈率两种方法分别测度GL电器公司目前的估值 水平，研究发现，以企业自由现金流量折现法及市盈率法来对GL电器每股的价值进 行估算的结果并不相同，分别为76.20 元、60.27 元，差异较为明显。同时本文还分 析了运用自由现金流量法与市盈率法测度GL电器公司价值差异的原因，并科学讨论 GL电器公司面临的宏观经济环境、行业政策、同业竞争、原材料及汇率、气候环境 与资本市场的风险问题，最后提出GL电器公司可行的投资建议，以期能够帮助投资 者进行合理、科学的投资。 关键词：GL电器 价值评估 投资价值 Abstract II Abstract GL electric appliance company ranks among the best in the development of the global air conditioning industry, with a strong production, development and sales team system, and is also the leading enterprise in the air conditioning industry of China. GL electric appliance company has been exported to more than 100 countries, and has a good reputation and reputation at home and abroad. Due to its promising development prospect, GL electric appliance company is one of the outstanding companies in the industry. GL company has attracted the attention of many investors or institutions. Since its listing in 1996, GL electric appliance company has been followed by many investors. Based on this paper, taking GL electric appliance company as a specific case and combining with financial analysis method and valuation calculation method, the investment value of GL electric appliance company is calculated from multiple perspectives, which helps investors to have a clearer understanding of GL electric appliance company and make scientific decisions. This paper adopts the free cash flow discount method and the income method to jointly measure the current valuation level of GL electric appliance company. It is found that the evaluation results of the value per share of GL electric appliance based on the free cash flow discount method and the price-to-earnings ratio method are not the same, which are respectively 76.20 yuan and 60.27 yuan, with obvious differences. At the same time this paper also analyzed the used two methods to measure the GL electrical reason for the difference between the value of the company, and discuss scientific GL electric company are faced with the macroeconomic environment, industry policy, competition, raw materials and the risk of exchange rate, climate, environment and capital market problems, finally put forward the GL electric feasible investment advice, in order to help the investors to invest the rational and scientific. Key words: GL Electrical Appliances，Value Evaluation，Investment Value， 目 录 III 目 录 1 绪论 .............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1背景及意义 ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2研究内容与方法 ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2.1研究内容 ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2.2研究方法 ................................................................................................................... 2 1.3研究创新点 ......................................................................................................................... 2 2 宏观分析及行业概况 .................................................................................................................. 3 2.1宏观经济行业分析 ............................................................................................................. 3 2.1.1国外宏观经济行业分析 ............................................................................................ 3 2.1.2国内宏观经济行业分析 ............................................................................................ 5 2.2行业分析 ............................................................................................................................. 9 3 GL电器基本面分析 ................................................................................................................... 14 3.1公司概况 ........................................................................................................................... 14 3.2主营业务分析 ................................................................................................................... 15 3.3核心竞争力分析 ............................................................................................................... 16 3.3.1战略目标 .................................................................................................................. 16 3.3.2技术竞争力 .............................................................................................................. 16 3.3.3管理竞争力 .............................................................................................................. 17 3.3.4文化竞争力 .............................................................................................................. 18 3.3.5营销竞争力 .............................................................................................................. 19 3.4贸易战对GL公司的影响分析 ........................................................................................ 19 3.4.1中美贸易战对GL公司的短期影响....................................................................... 19 3.4.2中美贸易战对GL公司的长期影响....................................................................... 20 4 GL电器公司财务分析 ............................................................................................................... 22 4.1资产负债表分析 ............................................................................................................... 22 4.2利润表分析 ....................................................................................................................... 23 4.3现金流量表分析 ............................................................................................................... 24 4.4盈利能力分析 ................................................................................................................... 25 4.4.1指标数据分析 .......................................................................................................... 25 4.4.2同业比较分析 .......................................................................................................... 26 4.5运营能力分析 ................................................................................................................... 27 4.5.1指标数据分析 .......................................................................................................... 28 GL电器投资价值研究 IV 4.5.2同业比较分析 .......................................................................................................... 28 4.6偿债能力分析 ................................................................................................................... 29 4.6.1指标数据分析 .......................................................................................................... 29 4.6.2同业比较分析 .......................................................................................................... 29 5公司估值评价 ............................................................................................................................. 31 5.1公司估值评价概述 ........................................