为促进我国传统制造业转型升级，优化产品结构，从《中国制造 2025》以来， 国家和地方政府出台了一系列的政策措施和行动计划，鼓励传统制造向智能制造 转型，明确指出要以智能工厂为发展方向，加快智能技术、增材制造等在生产过 程中的应用，促进制造业生产装备的智能化升级、改善工艺流程，以提升生产效 率。受国家利好政策的影响，我国产业分工和发展格局发生根本性变化，出现大 批智能制造示范项目。在此背景下，基于智能制造的投资越来越火热。 通过股权评估，有助于深入了解企业的整体经营状况，并对企业价值有总体 衡量。因此伴随着智能制造主体的投资火热，对智能制造企业的股权评估应运而 生。本研究站在投资方的角度，以智能制造系统集成商 A 公司为评估对象，在经 过详尽的分析后，对该企业的股权投资价值进行评估。首先在总结国内外相关文 献和概念界定的基础上，结合股权价值评估方法的对比分析，确定了本研究采用 的股权投资价值评估模型；然后对企业概况进行整体介绍，包括股权结构和管理 团队，以及对 2016 年—2018 年该企业的财务情况进行了详细分析，以及对企业所 处的市场环境包括政策、经济和行业等方面进行了分析；最后基于对企业主要项 目的预测，综合采用折现现金流量法和市场法对企业进行股权价值评估；并进一 步站在投资方的角度对该企业的股权投资方案进行设计，提出了相应的风险控制 措施。经过以上分析，主要得到以下结论： 一是不论是从 A 企业所处的行业环境、政策环境来看，结合 A 公司经营状况 分析，判断 A 企业未来具有广阔的发展空间； 二是 A 企业的股权较为分散，不利于企业长期发展，近三年来 A 企业的盈利 能力和营运能力有所下降，但是成长能力前景较好； 三是通过对企业价值评估，发现营业利润在影响股权价值中占有较大因素， 但是结合 A 企业在智能制造产业链中的环节分析，发现该企业对上游供应商的议 价能力有限，因此需要引进处于整个行业中游环节的投资方，以提升 A 企业的竞 争优势；湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II 四是基于对 A 企业价值评估分析，设计了募集 6000 万元的融资方案用于生产 线扩造和加大研发投入；以及 3 年内上市和未来三年净利润不低于 2018 年的对赌 协议。 最后在肯定全文股权评估模型的可行性和科学性基础上，反思了本研究中存 在的不足，并指明未来的研究方向重点。 关键词：价值评估；智能制造；股权投资湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 III Abstract To promote the transformation and upgrading of China's traditional manufacturing, and optimize the product structure, since the "made in China 2025", national and local governments issued a series of policy measures and plan of action, to encourage the traditional manufacture to the intelligent transformation, clearly points to intelligent factory for development direction, speed up the intelligent technology, material manufacture and so on in production process, the application of promote the intelligent manufacturing equipment upgrading, improve the technological process, to enhance the production efficiency. Under the influence of favorable national policies, China's industrial division of labor and development pattern has undergone fundamental changes, and a large number of intelligent manufacturing demonstration projects have appeared. In this context, investment based on intelligent manufacturing is becoming more and more popular.Through equity evaluation, it is helpful to have a deep understanding of the overall operation of the enterprise, and to have an overall measure of the enterprise value. Therefore, with the hot investment of intelligent manufacturing entities, the equity evaluation of intelligent manufacturing enterprises arises at the right moment. From the perspective of investors, this research takes intelligent manufacturing system integrator A company as the evaluation object, and evaluates the equity investment value of the enterprise after detailed analysis. Firstly, on the basis of summarizing relevant literature and definition at home and abroad, and combining with comparative analysis of equity valuation methods, the equity investment valuation model adopted in this study is determined. Then, the general situation of the enterprise is introduced, including the ownership structure and management team, the financial situation of the enterprise from 2016 to 2018 is analyzed in detail, and the market environment of the enterprise including policies, economy and industries is analyzed. At last, based on the prediction of the main projects, the discounted cash flow method and the market method are used to evaluate the equity value of the enterprise. Further from the investor's point of view, the equity investment scheme of the enterprise is designed, and the corresponding risk control measures are put forward. After the above analysis,湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 IV the main conclusions are as follows: First, from the perspective of the industrial environment and policy environment in which Enterprise A is located, it can be judged that enterprise A has broad development space in the future based on the analysis of company A's operation status. Second, the dispersed equity of Enterprise A is not conducive to the long-term development of the enterprise. In the past three years, the profitability and operating capacity of Enterprise A have decreased, but the prospect of growth capacity is good. Three were found through the assessment of enterprise value, operating profit occupies larger factors in affecting equity value, but A link in A enterprise in intelligent manufacturing industry chain analysis, found that the enterprise to the upstream suppliers bargaining power is limited, so you need to introduce middle link of the investor in the whole industry, to enhance the competitive advantage of A business, Fourth, based on the analysis of enterprise A's value assessment, A financing plan of 60 million yuan was designed for the expansion of production lines and the increase of r&d investment. As well as three years of listing and the next three years of net profit not less than 2018. Finally, on the basis of affirming the feasibility and scientific nature of the full-text equity evaluation model, this paper reflects on the shortcomings of this research and points out the future research direction. Key words: Value evaluation; Intelligent manufacturing; Equity investment湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 V 目 录 摘要.......................................................... I Abstract ...................................................... III 目 录........................................................ V 第 1 章 绪 论.................................................... 8 1.1 立论依据 ...................................................8 1.1.1 选题背景 .............................................8 1.1.2 研究目的 .............................................9 1.1.3 研究意义 .............................................9 1.2 文献综述 ..................................................10 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ........................................10 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ........................................12 1.2.3 研究评述 ............................................14 1.3 研究内容及方法 ............................................15 1.3.1 研究内容 ............................................15 1.3.2 研究方法 ............................................16 第 2 章 智能制造企业股权投资价值评估相关理论基础 ................ 18 2.1 股权投资与债权投资 ........................................18 2.2 企业价值与股权投资价值 ....................................19 2.3 企业价值与股权投资价值评估 ................................20 2.3.1 收益法 ..............................................20 2.3.2 市场法 ..............................................21 2.3.3 成本法 ..............................................21 2.4 智能制造企业及其股权价值评估的特点 ........................22 2.4.1 智能制造的定义 ......................................22 2.4.2 智能制造企业的特点 ..................................22 2.4.3 智能制造企业股权价值评估的特点 ......................23 2.5 理论基础 ..................................................24湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 VI 2.5.1 MM 理论..............................................24 2.5.2 价值投资理论 ........................................25 2.5.3 有效市场理论 ........................................25 第 3 章 智能制造