I 比亚迪股份有限公司投资价值分析 摘要 近年来，全球新能源汽车快速发展，已经成为炙手可热的投资行业之一，我国己经连续三年成为 全球最大的新能源汽车市场，政府通过产业规划和相应的扶植政策不断推动新能源汽车产业的发展。 同时经济的平稳运行以及消费需求的增加和环保消费理念的升级，也为新能源汽车的发展提供了资本 和社会保障，而技术的进步也将是产业发展源源不断的动力。在此大背景下，行业内龙头公司，具有 非常高的研究价值。 本文选取新能源汽车行业领跑者——比亚迪为研究对象，合理选用多因子投资价值分析模型，解 决投资者最为关心的投资价值区间的问题，充分考虑到外部、内部环境及市场表现变动对于投资价值 的影响，并且弥补了已有量化模型缺少动态跟踪的不足之处。主要研究过程及方法：本文的研究主要 从6个部分依次展开，第1部分为绪论，包括研究背景、研究目的及意义、研究内容及方法。第2部 分为相关理论基础知识的概述，包括投资价值评价的主要指标以及模型方法，通过对比分析了传统以 及现代的投资价值模型的发展和优缺点，最终选取了多因子投资价值分析模型来进行比亚迪的投资价 值评估。第3部分从外部环境进行了相关分析，包括宏观环境分析和新能源汽车行业分析；第4部分 则进行了内部环境分析，包括比亚迪公司基本情况分析和财务状况分析，第3、4章节的内容，遵循 自上而下的分析维度，并为公司投资价值模型的建立，提供了充分的分析依据及数据基础。第5部分 也是本文最为重要的模型部分，详细介绍了模型方法的选取以及模型构建的全过程，并为投资者提供 了最终的可投资区间参考范围。第6部分，则进行了相关结论概括及展望。经过对比论证，笔者最终 选用打分法和占比加权法来建立多因子投资价值分析模型。从有效因子及因子系数的选取，到代入相 关因子数据确定可投资区间，以及最后的模型检验和改进，经过上述一系列分析论证得到最终的结论， 多因子投资价值分析模型结果的取值范围为：40.9~60.4，即比亚迪的可投资参考区间为：40.9~60.4。 即当模型得分y满足此范围时，比亚迪股份有限公司具备投资价值，否则，将判断不具备投资价值， 以此为依据为投资者提供投资价值参考。并且将最近报告期（2019年年报预告）相关数据代入到模型 中，得到y的值为55.41，符合可投资区间40.9~60.4，因此公司1季度及后续依旧具备较高的投资 价值，同时未来的任何一个既得数据时间点上，投资者都可以根据模型中的y值进行判断，在此时点 上，比亚迪股份有限公司是否具备投资价值。 关键词： 新能源汽车行业,比亚迪股份有限公司,多因子模型,投资价值分析 吉林大学硕士学位论文 II Investment value analysis of BYD Company Limited Abstract In recent years, new energy vehicles are developing rapidly and have become one of the hot investment industries, China has been the world's largest market for new energy vehicles for three consecutive years, the government through industrial planning and the corresponding support policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles industry. At the same time, the stable operation of the economy, the increase of consumer demand and the upgrading of the concept of environmental protection consumption also provide capital and social security for the development of new energy vehicles, and the progress of technology will also be the continuous power of industrial development. In this context, the leading companies in the industry have very high research value. In this paper, BYD, the leader of new energy automobile industry, is selected as the research object, and the multi factor investment value analysis model is reasonably selected to solve the problem of the investment value range that investors are most concerned about, and the impact of external and internal environment and market performance changes on investment value is fully considered, and make up for the lack of dynamic tracking in the existing quantitative model. Main research process and methods: The research of this paper is mainly carried out in six parts. Part 1 is the introduction, including the research background, research purpose and significance, research contents and methods. Part 2 is an overview of relevant theoretical basic knowledge, including the main indicators of investment value evaluation and model methods. The development, advantages and disadvantages of traditional and modern investment value models are compared and analyzed. Finally, the multi-factor investment value analysis model is selected to evaluate the investment value of BYD. Part 3 analyzes the external environment, including the macro environment and the new energy automobile industry. Part 4 conducts internal environment analysis, including BYD company's basic situation analysis and financial situation analysis. The contents of chapters 3 and 4 follow the top-down analysis dimension, and provide sufficient analysis basis and data basis for the establishment of the company's investment value model. Part 5 is the most important part of this paper, which introduces the selection of model methods and the whole process of model construction in detail, and provides investors with the final reference range of investable interval. In the sixth part, the relevant conclusions are summarized and prospected. After comparison and demonstration, the author finally uses scoring method and proportion weighting method to establish a multi factor investment value analysis model. From the selection of effective factors and factor coefficients to the determination of investable interval by substituting relevant factor data, as well as the final model test and improvement, through the above series of analysis and demonstration, the final conclusion is obtained. The value range of multi factor investment value analysis model results is: 40.9 Abstract III ~ 60.4, that is, BYD's investable reference interval is: 40.9 ~ 60.4. That is to say, when the model’s score meets this range, BYD has the investment value, otherwise, it will be judged that it does not have the investment value, so as to provide investment value reference for investors. And the relevant data of the most recent reporting period (2019 annual report notice) is substituted into the model, and the value of y is 55.41, which is in line with the investable range of 40.9 ~ 60.4. Therefore, the company still has high investment value in the first quarter and follow-up time. At any given time point, investors can judge based on the y value in the model, at this point, whether BYD Company Limited has investment value. Key words: New energy automobile industry, BYD Company Limited, Multi factor model, Investment value analysis 吉林大学硕士学位论文 IV 目录 第1章 绪论.......................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景 ..................................................................... 1 1.2 研究目的 ..................................................................... 1 1.3 研究意义 ..................................................................... 1 1.4 研究内容及方法 ............................................................... 2 1.4.1 研究内容................................................................ 2 1.4.2 研究方法................................................................ 3 第2章 相关理论基础知识的概述........................................................ 4 2.1 投资价值评价的主要指标 ....................................................... 4 2.2 投资价值评估方法 ............................................................. 4 2.2.1 传统的企业投资价值模型.................................................. 4 2.2.2 现代的企业投资价值模型.................................................. 4 第3章 外部环境分析.................................................................. 6 3.1 宏观环境分析 ................................................................. 6 3.1.1 政治环境分析............................................................ 6 3.1.2 经济环境分析............................................................ 7 3.1.3 社会环境分析........................................................... 10 3.1.4 技术环境分析........................................................... 10 3.2 新能源汽车行业分析 .......................................................... 11 3.2.1 新能源汽车概述......................................................... 11 3.2.2 新能源汽车行业产业链分析............................................... 11 3.2.3 新能源汽车行业发展脉络及趋