随着改革开放节奏加快，经济结构优化升级，为满足不同规模、不同类型企 业的融资需求，我国建立了全国中小企业股份转让系统即“新三板”。作为多层 次资本市场的重要环节，“新三板”主要服务于创新型、科技型、成长型的中小 微企业，为解决我国长期存在的中小企业融资难，民间资本投资渠道狭窄等问题 提供有效解决方法。但近年来，随着一系列借壳上市、虚假信息披露、内幕交易、 垫资开户等不良事件的发生，“新三板”逐渐暴露出估值非理性化的缺陷，导致 投资者纷纷用脚投票，新增挂牌公司显著减少，融资规模大幅下降，“新三板” 在很长一段时间内处于沉寂状态。但“新三板”不乏一批主业突出、科技含量高、 成长性好的企业，在“新三板”全面深化改革的背景下，如何正确引导投资者对 “新三板”公司股票投资价值进行客观理性的评估是重新使市场恢复活力的关键。 乳业是现代农业和食品工业的重要组成部分，也是关系民生大计的战略性产 业之一，多年来一直备受投资者关注。因此本文以“新三板”上市乳业公司华瑞 农业作为研究对象，在价值投资分析框架的指导下，选择合适的估值模型对其股 票投资价值进行评估，为投资者确定合理投资价格区间提供参考，为“新三板” 公司进行估值提供有益借鉴。 本文立足于投资者视角，采取定量和定性相结合、理论和实证相结合的研究 方法，对华瑞农业市场地位、竞争优势、发展战略、宏观经济、行业因素、会计 政策进行分析，掌握公司基本面；再选取一系列财务指标进行同业对比分析，判 断公司盈利能力和发展前景；最后运用相对估值法和绝对估值法对公司进行估值 定价分析，发掘出公司股票投资价值，得出本文结论：华瑞农业具有地理位置优 势、产品质量优势、成本控制优势、技术研发优势，是一家财务状况良好、成长 潜力较大的企业，华瑞农业股票的合理价格区间位于5.93元/股—16.51元/股 之间，是一家值得投资者关注和投资的公司，投资者可以在考虑各项投资风险因 素后，选择机会进行价值投资。 关键词：新三板，华瑞农业，价值投资，估值模型，B-S期权定价模型 MBA学位论文 作者：蒋昕 甘肃华瑞农业股份有限公司股票投资价值分析研究 III ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH ON STOCK INVESTMENT VALUE OF GANSU HUARUI AGRICULTURE CO., LTD. Abstract The pace of China's reform and opening up has been accelerated, and the economic structure has been optimized and upgraded. In order to meet the financing needs of enterprises of different sizes and types, China has established a nationwide SMEs stock transfer system in the over-the-counter market, namely the“ New OTC Market”. As an important part of the multi-level capital market, the “New OTC Market” mainly serves innovative, technological, and growing SMEs, which eases the long-term financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises in China and broadens private capital investment channels. However, in recent years, with the occurrence of a series of adverse events such as backdoor listing, false information disclosure, insider trading, and fund-opening, the “New OTC Market” has gradually exposed the flaws of irrational valuation, causing investors to leave the market .Meanwhile, the number of newly listed companies has decreased significantly, and the scale of financing has fallen sharply. The “New OTC Market” has been silent for a long time. However, there are many companies in the market that have outstanding main businesses, high technological content and strong growth capabilities. Against the background of the comprehensive reform of the "New OTC Market", how to properly guide investors to objectively and rationally evaluate the stock investment value is the key to revitalize the market. The dairy industry is an important part of modern agriculture and the food industry, and it is also one of the strategic industries that related to the livelihood of the people. It has attracted the attention of investors for many years. Therefore, this paper takes the “New OTC Market” listed dairy company Huarui Agriculture as the research object. Under the guidance of the value investment analysis framework, this paper chooses a suitable valuation model to evaluate the value of its stock investment, provides a reference for investors to determine a reasonable investment price range, and a useful reference for the valuation of the“New OTC Market”listed companies. Based on the perspective of investors, this paper adopts a combination of quantitative and qualitative research, combined with theoretical and empirical research methods, analyzes Huarui's market position, competitive advantage, development strategy, industry factors, and accounting policies, and grasps the basics of the company. MBA学位论文 作者：蒋昕 甘肃华瑞农业股份有限公司股票投资价值分析研究 IV Then it selects a series of financial indicators to compare and analyze with companies in the same industry to judge the company's profitability and development prospects. Finally, it uses relative valuation method and absolute valuation method to conduct valuation and pricing analysis on the company to discover the company's stock investment value. The conclusion of this paper is: Huarui Agriculture has advantages in geographical location, product quality, cost control, and technology research and development. It is a company with good financial status and large growth potential. The reasonable investment price range of Huarui Agricultural is between 5.93 yuan / share and 16.51 yuan / share. It is a company worthy of investors' attention and investment. Investors can take opportunities for value investment after considering various investment risk factors . Key words: New OTC Market, Gansu Huarui Agriculture Co., Ltd, value investment, valuation model, B-S option pricing model MBA学位论文 作者：蒋昕 甘肃华瑞农业股份有限公司股票投资价值分析研究 V 目 录 中文摘要 ............................................. II Abstract ............................................ III 第一章 绪论 ........................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与研究意义.......................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................ 4 1.2 研究内容与研究问题.......................................... 4 1.2.1 研究内容................................................ 4 1.2.2 研究问题................................................ 5 1.3 研究方法与论文结构.......................................... 5 1.3.1 研究方法................................................ 5 1.3.2 论文结构................................................ 6 第二章 股票投资价值分析相关理论综述 ..................... 8 2.1 股票投资价值理论............................................ 8 2.1.1 有效市场假说............................................ 8 2.1.2 信息不对称理论.......................................... 9 2.1.3 价值投资理论............................................ 9 2.2 股票投资价值分析基本方法................................... 10 2.2.1 相对估值模型........................................... 10 2.2.2 绝对估值模型........................................... 11 2.2.3 新三板企业估值模型的选择............................... 12 2.3 国内外股票投资价值研究情况................................. 12 2.3.1 国外研究情况........................................... 12 2.3.2 国内研究情况........................................... 13 MBA学位论文 作者：蒋昕 甘肃华瑞农业股份有限公司股票投资价值分析研究 VI 2.3.3 文献评述............................................... 14 第三章 华瑞农业发展现状分析 ........................... 16 3.1 公司基本情况............................................... 16 3.1.1 基本信息............................................... 16 3.1.2 业务状况............................................... 17 3.1.3 财务状况............................................... 18 3.1.4 股权结构............................................... 20 3.1.5 职工情况............................................... 21 3.2 公司市场地位及竞争优势..................................... 22 3.2.1 市场地位............................................... 22 3.2.2 竞争优势............................................... 23 3.3 公司发展战略............................................... 25 3.3.1 经营战略............................................... 25 3.3.2 业务战略............................................... 26 3.3.3 财务战