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2022年 5月 25日
中原工学院
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2022年 5月 25日

中原工学院硕士学位论文
摘 要
新发展阶段，房地产的作用意义重大。新冠疫情、俄乌冲突对全球经济产生深刻影
响，全球供应链问题凸显，各国经济萎靡不振，加之金融市场不稳定因素增多，市场预
期转向悲观，整个行业弥漫着一片悲凉的气氛中。十九大以来，各级政府把化解房地产
金融风险当作政治任务来抓，落实把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，坚决守住不发生系统
性风险，提升房地产业风险管理已然成为当前急需关注的重大课题。
调控政策密集出台，房企投、融、营全盘收紧；另一方面国内经济复苏无力，市场
疲软，销售躺平，楼市成交量价齐跌，叠加债务集中到期，相当数量的房企资金流动性
吃紧。本文研究内容基于风险管理等基本理论出发，以MX集团G项目为例，通过了解G
项目所处的大环境和实际现状，在房地产项目开发风险管理等理论基础上对G项目深入
剖析，并设计出针对性风险应对意见。在论文分析中，选定专家意见等方法对项目存在
的主要风险因素和指标展开针对性的辨识。后续，对风险指标进行全面评价，综合对比
出各风险权重，分析并排列出G项目面临风险的严重程度。最后，论文结合风险评价的
相关结论，围绕房地产G项目设计出配套的风险应对方案。借助论文的深度分析，为同
行房地产项目风险管理给予相应的理论支持，借助各项措施来增强项目管理水平，丰富
其手段，在补充并完善有关理论体系的基础上，实现高质量的长期稳定发展。
关键词：房地产开发项目；风险管理；模糊层次分析
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中原工学院硕士学位论文
Abstract
The role of real estate is significant in the new development stage. The new crown
epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have had a profound impact on the global economy,
global supply chain problems have come to the fore, and the economies of various countries
are sluggish, coupled with increased instability in the financial markets, market expectations
have turned pessimistic, and the entire industry is permeated by a gloomy atmosphere. Since
the 19th National Congress, governments at all levels have taken the resolution of real estate
financial risks as a political task to implement the prevention of risks in a more prominent
position, resolutely guard against systemic risks, and enhance the risk management of the real
estate industry has become a major issue that needs urgent attention at present.
On the other hand, the domestic economic recovery is weak, the market is weak, sales
are flat, and the volume and price of property transactions are falling, and the debt maturity is
concentrated, which makes the liquidity of a considerable number of real estate enterprises
tight. The research content of this paper is based on risk management and other basic theories,
taking the G project of MX Group as an example, through understanding the general
environment in which the G project is located and the actual status quo, the G project is
analyzed in depth on the basis of theories such as risk management of real estate project
development, and the targeted risk response advice is designed. In the analysis of the thesis,
the main risk factors and indicators of the project are identified by combining the actual
situation of real estate project construction with selected expert opinions and other methods.
Subsequently, the risk indicators are comprehensively evaluated, the risk weights are
comprehensively compared, and the severity of the risks faced by the G project is analyzed
and ranked. Finally, the thesis combines the findings of the risk evaluation and designs a risk
response plan for the real estate G project. With the in-depth analysis of the thesis, it gives
corresponding theoretical support to the risk management of peer real estate projects,
enhances the project management level with the help of various measures, enriches its means,
and achieves high-quality long-term stable development on the basis of supplementing and
improving the relevant theoretical system.
Key words: real estate development project；risk management；fuzzy hierarchy analysis
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