影视业属于投资金额较大、周转时间较长、投资风险较大、资源 消,耗很少、几乎无环境污染的核心创意文化产业，目前越来越受,到全 世界各,国政府的,重点关注，预把影视,业作为重点.发展产业并.努力把 它打.造为支柱产业。影视业运营模式在欧美国家早已形成形成规范. 的产业，加之风险管理研究和应用较早，所以影视业项目投资风险在 西方国家相对较小。最近几年随着我国政府的持续，我国影视业得到 了快速发展，但因影视业项目投资风险因素众多且关系错综复杂，如 何对影视业项目投资风险进行管控的研究较少，导致我国影视业项目 投资失败率较高，所以研究我国影视业项目投资风险管理不管是对理 论还是实践都具有重大意义。本文运用项目投资风险管理中的相关理 论知识，以ZY影视公司项目投资风险为研究对象，对该项目中的风 险进行识别，构建项目投资风险指标体系，并通过层次分析法对项目 风险中的风险因素进行评估，从而得到ZY影视公司项目风险的等级， 根据等级对项目风险因素的管控提出相应的策略和建议，给其它影视 业项目风险管理一定的借鉴。 关键词：影视产业，投资风险，风险管理，层次分析法 V ABSTRACT The film and television industry belongs to the huge investment, long turnaround time, little resource consumption, little environmental pollution ,and the cultural creativity of the core industries, and it's getting more and more attention from all the governments of the world, and it’s taking the film and television industry as the key industry and try to make it a pillar industry. In the United States, the industry has already established a model of industrialized operations, and risk management and research and applications are early, so the risk of investment in the film and television industry is relatively low in the west. In recent years along with our country government continued, film and television industry got fast development, but the film and television industry project investment risk factors and the relationship is complex, how to control the film and television industry project investment risk study is less, lead to China's film and television industry project investment failure rate is higher, so the film and television industry in our country project investment risk management has very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper uses relevant theoretical knowledge in risk management of project investment to identify risks in project risk management of ZY film and television company, builds risk index system of project investment, and evaluates risk factors in project risk through analytic hierarchy process, so as to obtain the level of project risk of ZY film and television company. According to the result, corresponding strategies and suggestions are put forward for risk management of project risk factors, which can be used for reference of other film and television industry projects risk management. VI Key Words：the film and television industry,i nvestment risk, risk management, analytic hierarchy process(AHP) VII 目 录 摘要.......................................................................................................................... III ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. V 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 选题背景 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 研究目的与意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1研究目的........................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2研究意义........................................................................................................ 2 1.3 国内外研究现状 ................................................................................................ 3 1.3.1国外研究现状................................................................................................ 3 1.3.2国内研究现状................................................................................................ 4 1.4 研究方法与研究内容 ........................................................................................ 6 1.4.1 研究方法....................................................................................................... 6 1.4.2研究内容........................................................................................................ 7 1.4.3主要创新点.................................................................................................... 8 第二章 相关概念及理论............................................................................................ 10 2.1 影视业的基本概念 ........................................................................................... 10 2.2项目投资的基本理论 ........................................................................................ 11 2.2.1 项目投资的概念与特点............................................................................. 11 2.2.2 项目投资的分类......................................................................................... 11 2.2.3 项目投资的意义......................................................................................... 12 2.3 投资风险的基本理论 ....................................................................................... 12 2.3.1 投资风险的概念与特点............................................................................. 12 2.3.2投资风险因素分类...................................................................................... 13 2.4 风险管理的基本理论 ....................................................................................... 14 2.4.1 风险管理的概念及形式............................................................................. 14 2.4.2 风险管理的基本过程................................................................................. 14 第三章 ZY影视公司项目投资风险识别 ................................................................. 19 3.1 影视业现状分析 ............................................................................................... 19 3.2 ZY影视公司项目介绍 ...................................................................................... 21 3.3 ZY影视公司项目投资风险特点 ...................................................................... 22 3.3.1复杂性.......................................................................................................... 22 3.3.2动态性.......................................................................................................... 23 3.3.3客观性.......................................................................................................... 23 3.4 ZY影视公司项目投资风险识别 ...................................................................... 23 3.4.1 宏观环境风险............................................................................................. 23 3.4.2 微观风险..................................................................................................... 25 VIII 3.4.3 企业自身风险............................................................................................. 27 第四章 ZY影视公司项目投资风险评估 ................................................................. 29 4.1 层次分析法（AHP）的导入 ........................................................................... 29 4.1.1 风险评价方法的确定................................................................................. 29 4.1.2 评价指标体系选择的原则......................................................................... 34 4.2 层析分析法（AHP）的应用 ........................................................................... 36 4.2.1 建立层次分析法指标体系......................................................................... 36 4.2.2 层次分析法的权重计算............................................................................. 36 4.3 ZY影视公司项目投资风险评估 ...................................................................... 39 第五章 ZY影视公