：由于房地产项目投资额度大、开发周期长等特点所决定，房 地产项目存在较大的风险，因此，对房地产项目进行风险管理研究意 义深远。房地产行业作为我国市场经济的重要组成，是属于高附加值 的综合性产业，使得经济发展产生高度敏感性，同时房地产项目作为 高风险、高收益的产业，又存在诸多不确定性。 随着国内国外的经济影响加剧，房地产项目的风险进一步加大， 项目在立项、设计准备、建设和租售阶段都面临风险，项目经营管理 不到位容易导致项目产生高风险，从而引发开发商资金链断裂甚至破 产。目前，我国的经济和社会发展正处于加速转型阶段，对于处在经 济新常态下的房地产企业来说，加强对房地产项目风险的管理研究， 才能保证项目的顺利完成以及完成项目预期收益，有助于房地产市场 发展的健康持续稳定，也能够为国内其他房地产项目风险防范提供经 验借鉴。 本文通过研究基本理论和项目的风险特点，从风险的识别、评价 和控制三个方面进行分析。重点以BL房地产项目为例进行风险管理 的研究。（1）在风险识别中运用核对表法，构建6个第一层级风险 指标：财务风险、建设风险、经营风险、技术风险、市场风险、环境 风险，16个二级风险指标：融资风险等。（2）在风险评价中运用层 次分析法、模糊综合评价法设立指标权重、度量风险，对BL房地产 项目风险评价的研究结果为一般风险。（3）通过对BL房地产项目 的风险进行详细计算和分析，结合目前项目遇到的实际情况，对国家 政策风险、延迟工期风险、安全风险、融资风险、合同制定风险、施 工方案风险、商品房需求风险及财务风险提出了控制策略。 本文针对房地产项目面临的各类风险，分析了房地产风险管理的 意义，分别介绍和运用房地产项目风险管理的内容和方法，对房地产 项目风险管理中应注意的风险点进行识别、评价和控制研究，以指导 房地产项目管理层对风险进行有效管理，规避不利影响，更多地是为 其他房地产项目风险管理提供借鉴。 关键词：房地产项目 风险管理 风险识别 风险评价 风险控制 III RESEARCH ON RISK MANAGEMENT OF BL REAL ESTATE PROJECT Xie Yu Bo(Business Administration Major) Directed by: Guan He Shan Abstract: Due to the characteristics of large investment amount and long development cycle of real estate projects, there are great risks in real estate projects. Therefore, the research on risk management of real estate projects is of far-reaching significance. As an important part of China's market economy, the real estate industry is a comprehensive industry with high added value, which makes economic development highly sensitive. At the same time, as a high-risk and high-yield industry, there are many uncertainties in real estate projects. With the increasing economic impact at home and abroad, the risk of real estate project is further increased. The project is faced with risks in the stages of project approval, design preparation, construction and lease and sale. The project management is not in place, which will easily lead to high risk of the project, leading to the rupture of the developer's capital chain or even bankruptcy. At present, China's economic and social development is in the stage of accelerating transformation. For real estate enterprises in the new economic normal, strengthening the research on the management of real estate project risk can ensure the smooth completion of the project and the expected income of the completion of the project, which is conducive to the healthy and sustaina BL e development of the real estate market, and It also provides reference for risk prevention of other real estate projects in China. This paper studies the basic theory and risk characteristics of the project, analysis from three aspects of risk identification, evaluation and control. Focus on the risk management of BL real estate project as an example. (1) In risk identification, the checklist method is used to construct six first-level risk indicators: financial risk, construction risk, operational risk, technical risk, market risk and environmental risk, and Sixteen secondary risk indicators: financing risk, etc. (2)In the risk evaluation, the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to set up the index weight and measure the risk. The result of the risk evaluation of BL real estate project is the general risk.(3) Through detailed calculation and analysis of the risk of BL real estate project, combined with the actual situation of the current project encountered.Control strategies are proposed for national policy risk, delay risk, safety risk, financing risk, Contract-making risk, construction risk, demand risk of commercial housing and financial risk. This paper aims at all kinds of risks faced by real estate projects, this paper analyzes the significance of real estate risk management, introduces and applies the contents and methods of real estate project risk management respectively, and studies the identification, evaluation and control of the risk points that should be paid attention to in real estate project risk management, so as to guide the real estate project management to effectively manage the risk, avoid adverse effects, and more It is a reference for other real estate project risk management. Keywords: real estate project；risk management；risk identification； risk assessment；risk control 目 录 摘要......................................................I Abstract................................................III 第1章 绪 论.............................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义.....................................1 1.1.1 研究的背景....................................1 1.1.2 研究意义......................................3 1.2 国内外研究现状.....................................4 1.2.1 国内外房地产项目理论研究现状..................4 1.2.2 研究评述.....................................6 1.3 研究思路及内容....................................7 1.3.1 研究思路.....................................7 1.3.2 研究方法.....................................7 1.4 论文研究内容......................................8 第2章 相关概念与相关理论.................................9 2.1 风险相关概念.......................................9 2.1.1 房地产项目风险的概念..........................9 2.1.2 房地产项目风险的特点.........................10 2.2 房地产项目风险管理的内容和程序....................10 2.2.1 房地产项目风险识别...........................10 2.2.2 房地产项目风险评估...........................11 2.2.3 房地产项目风险控制...........................11 第3章 BL房地产项目风险识别研究.........................13 3.1 BL房地产项目概况.................................13 3.1.1 BL房地产项目基本情况........................13 3.1.2 项目投资情况.................................14 3.2 BL房地产项目风险的识别...........................18 3.2.1 环境风险识别.................................19 3.2.2 建设风险识别.................................20 3.2.3 经营风险识别.................................21 3.2.4 技术风险识别.................................22 3.2.5 市场风险识别.................................23 3.2.6 财务风险识别.................................23 第4章 BL房地产项目风险的评价...........................31 4.1 风险评价指标体系的具体构建........................31 4.1.1 房地产项目风险评价的模糊特性.................31 4.1.2 风险评价指标的设置和权重确定.................32 4.2 BL项目风险评价...................................32 4.2.1 风险评价指标确定权重.........................32 4.2.2 BL房地产项目风险等级确定....................39 4.3 项目整体风险分析.................................42 4.3.1 各风险指标的权重.............................42 4.3.2 分析专家对各个层级风险指标评价比重...........43 第5章 BL房地产项目风险控制研究.........................45 5.1 BL房地产项目风险控制.............................45 5.1.1 国家政策风险控制.............................45 5.1.2 延迟工期风险控制.............................45 5.1.3 安全风险控制.................................46 5.1.4 融资风险控制.................................46 5.1.5 合同制定风险控制.............................47 5.1.6 施工方案风险控制.............................47 5.1.7 商品房需求风险控制...........................48 5.1.8 财务风险的控制...............................48 第6章 研究结论及展望....................................51 6.1 研究结论..........................................51 6.2 研究展望......................