摘
要
摘要
创新药企业是指主营业务为研发、生产和销售符合国家监管定义
创新药且尚未实现盈利的医药企业。传统估值方式无法适用于高风险、
高收益、长研发周期的创新药企业。
面对创新药企业估值过程中面临的困境，本文通过对在金融市场
上市企业公布的信息和现场调研获取的大量案例企业数据，用定性研
究法、调查分析法、案例研究法对创新药企业的价值评估展开研究，
提出估值方法的调整建议，期望能够为后续的理论研究提供支持，为
投资创新药企业提供决策的依据。
通过研究，本文发现创新药企业在估值过程中面临历史财务数据
有限、长期亏损、核心资产不在账面体现、研发失败、风险高、可比
企业少等诸多问题，大多数创新药企业的估值均受到制约，而实践中
常用的几种估值方式也存在遗漏资产、无法确定乘数和可比指标少等
问题。创新药具有包括社会价值属性、经济价值属性和临床价值属性
等特点，而对处于研发阶段的创新药而言，其核心价值来源于临床价
值，这是创新药企业在估值中应重点考虑的因素。在进一步研究中，
本文选取了在科创板上市的创新药企业泽璟制药作为研究案例，对该
企业的在研药物品种进行了深入剖析，且结合市场容量、发病率、销
售价格等因素，同时根据历史数据对该企业的中长期预期收益进行审
慎预测，然后在预期收益基础上采用了基于风险调整的现金流折现法
（rNPV）、基于销售峰值的市销率法对其价值进行评估；并同步选取
了 19家在科创板和港交所上市的同类型企业，采用市值/研发费用比
率作为可比指标对案例企业的价值进行评估，最后将分析结果与泽璟
制药在二级市场的股票价格进行交叉验证，发现rNPV法存在超过20%
的误差，其它两种方式分别选取2倍市销率乘数和可比公司的市值/研
发费用比例的中值进行估值的误差在5%以内。通过对rNPV方式的估值
结论分析发现，误差基本来源于创新药企业估值时点的账面净资产值。
从整个行业来看，对创新药企业进行较为准确的估值有利于避免形成
估值泡沫，促进行业和企业的良性发展。
通过分析研究，本文得出的主要结论为：创新药企业的价值来源
基础是临床价值，在估值方式的选择和改进上可以此为出发点进行调
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中国政法大学硕士学位论文
创新药企业估值研究
整；采用基于销售峰值的市销率方式评估创新药企业价值时，相应的
市销率采用 2倍较为合理；采用基于可比案例的市场分析方式时，可
采用市值/研发费用作为可比指标；无论从理论基础、案例研究结果对
比来看，基于风险调整的现金流折现法具有一定的优越性；当采用基
于风险调整的现金流折现法对创新药企业不同品种的药品价值评估后
可于评估时点对企业净资产进行相加获得更为合理的估值；在使用基
于风险调整的现金流折现法估值时应重点考虑的因素包括市场规模、
研发成功率、监管政策、评估时点、预测周期等因素的影响。
考虑到创新药企业、创新药行业发展的实际情况以及目前实务操
作中的估值实践，建议选用基于风险调整的现金流折现法，同时采用
销售峰值市销率模型、可比案例的市场分析法等其他估值方法对结果
进行交叉验证。
关键词：创新药企业；价值评估；泽璟制药
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ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT
Innovative drug enterprises refer to pharmaceutical enterprises whose
main business is R & D, production and sales of innovative drugs in line
with the national regulatory definition and have not yet achieved
profitability. Traditional valuation methods cannot be applied to innovative
drug enterprises with high risk, high return and long R & D cycle.
Facing the difficulties faced by innovative drug enterprises in the
valuation process, this paper obtains a large number of case enterprise data
through open market and on-site research, studies the value evaluation of
innovative drug enterprises with qualitative research methods, investigation
and analysis methods and case research methods, and puts forward
suggestions on the adjustment of valuation methods, hoping to provide
support for subsequent theoretical research, Provide decision-making basis
for investment in innovative drug enterprises.
Through research, this paper finds that innovative drug enterprises
face problems in the valuation process, such as limited historical financial
data, long-term losses, core assets not reflected in the book, high risk of R
& D failure, few comparable enterprises, etc. most of the valuations are
restricted, and several valuation methods commonly used in practice also
have problems such as missing assets, unable to determine multipliers and
comparable indicators. Innovative drugs include social value attributes,
economic value attributes and clinical value attributes. For innovative
drugs in the R & D stage, the core value comes from clinical value, which
should be considered in the valuation. In further research, this paper selects
zhe pharmaceutical listed on the KCG as a research case, and makes a
thorough analysis of the drug varieties in the enterprise. Combined with
market capacity, incidence rate, selling price and other factors, it forecasts
the medium and long term expected returns of the enterprise based on
historical data, and adopts the cash flow discount method (rNPV) based on
risk adjustment based on the expected revenue. The market sales ratio
method based on the peak sales value is used to evaluate its value; At the
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