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论文作者（签名）：
2022年 6月 17日
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外资参股、股权集中度对商业银行风险承担影响研究
摘要
随着我国不断深化对外开放，引进外资成为我国商业银行改革的关键环节。2018
年8月 23日，我国取消了外资在商业银行的持股比例限制。这一措施进一步提高了
境外机构进行投资的积极性，然而外资股东的进入，改变了商业银行原有的股权集中
度，使得内部股权结构发生改变。此外资股东虽然为商业银行补充了资本金，但即使
是资本足够充足也难以全部吸收风险爆发的危害，况且我国现阶段银行业风险承担的
存量较大，截至2020年底，我国银行业不良资产总规模达到34740亿元，较2019年
上升8.82%。在这样的背景下，本文从内部视角出发，研究外资参股、股权集中度对
商业银行风险承担的影响，从内部视角寻求可行的方法，充分发挥外资股东的相对优
势，有效降低商业银行风险承担，对金融深化开放和商业银行稳健发展具有重要意义。
本文首先对国内外的相关研究进行整理，然后以委托代理、利益相关者和金融脆
弱性理论为基础，从理论上多方面阐述了三者之间的联系，并提出了本文的四个假设。
然后，以22家商业银行2010-2020年的数据为样本，利用遮掩模型和门限模型进行
实证分析，即将外资参股对风险承担和股权集中度在两者关系中发挥的门限效应与遮
掩效应分别进行回归分析。研究结果表明：外资股东的进入能够发挥积极的作用，有
效降低商业银行的风险承担，且随着持股占比增加，其作用效果越明显，外资股东能
够为被参股银行带来先进的风险管理理念、发挥良好的监督作用和提供创新业务的经
验支持；股权集中度越高，商业银行风险承担越高，并且能够在两者关系中发挥遮掩
效应，即外资参股能够增加股权集中度，从而遮掩了对风险承担的降低作用；商业银
行的股权集中度存在一个特定的值，一旦超过这个值则会使得外资参股对风险承担的
作用效果减弱，即存在门限效应。最后在此基础上提出相关建议：适度提高外资参股
比例，建立深度合作关系；提供引资便利，加强对变向利益输送的监管；提高外资股
东“参与度”，发挥外资股东在资源方面的相对优势。
关键词：外资参股；股权集中度；风险承担；遮掩效应；门限效应
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外资参股、股权集中度对商业银行风险承担影响研究
ABSTRACT
With the deepening of China's opening to the outside world, the introduction of
foreign capital has become the key link of China's commercial bank reform. On August
23, 2018, China lifted the limit on foreign ownership in commercial banks. This
measure further improved the enthusiasm of overseas institutions to invest, but the entry
of foreign shareholders changed the concentration of commercial banks' original
ownership and changed the internal ownership structure. Although the foreign
shareholders supplement the capital for commercial banks, it is difficult to absorb all
the risks even if the capital is sufficient. Moreover, China's banking industry has a large
stock of risks at the present stage. By the end of 2020, the total scale of non-performing
assets in China's banking industry reached 3,474 billion yuan, up 8.82% compared with
2019. In this context, this article from the internal perspective, research investment,
equity concentration on the influence of the commercial bank risk bearing, to seek
feasible method, from the perspective of internal foreign shareholder of comparative
advantage into full play, effectively reduce the risk of commercial Banks, to commercial
bank financial deepening, opening up and stable development is of great significance.
This paper first sorts out relevant research at home and abroad, and then, based on
principal-agent, stakeholder and financial vulnerability theories, theoretically expounds
the relationship among the three, and puts forward five hypotheses of this paper. Then,
with the data of 22 commercial banks from 2010 to 2020 as samples, the empirical
analysis is made by using the cover model and the threshold model, that is, the threshold
effect and the cover effect of foreign equity participation on the relationship between
risk taking and ownership concentration are analyzed respectively. The results show
that the foreign shareholder into can play a positive role, effectively reduce the risk of
commercial Banks, and with the increase of shareholding proportion, its effect is more
apparent, foreign shareholder is able to bring advanced risk management idea, by taking
a stake in bank play a role of good supervision and provide innovative business
experience support; The higher the ownership concentration, the higher the risk taking
of commercial banks, and can play a masking effect in the relationship between the two,
that is, foreign equity participation can increase the ownership concentration, so as to
mask the reduction of risk taking; There is a specific value of equity concentration of
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