Ⅰ 摘要 棚户区改造是政府大力推进的一项重要民生工程，为千家万户困难群众改善 了住房条件，同时配套建设的市政基础设施，增强了城市功能，提升了城市整体 的现代化水平。我国棚户区改造经过较长时间的发展，从零星的工矿企业旧房改 造，到大规模城市危旧住房拆迁与基础设施建设相结合的综合建设，已经从单纯 的“政府主导”转变成“政府主导，市场运作”的方式。引入PPP模式，在棚户 区改造中推广政府与社会资本合作，不仅为棚改解决了资金缺口的大问题，还充 分发挥出了社会资本的市场经验和技术优势，在有效利用社会资源的同时极大地 提升了城市建设效率，推动了城市化进程。但是，PPP模式棚户区改造项目是复杂 的系统工程，具有项目各相关方利益交错，投融资结构复杂，建设运营周期长等 特点，这些都将导致项目面临更多的风险问题，因此，PPP模式棚户区改造项目是 否能达到预期目的，风险管理就成了成败的关键。 本文顺应PPP模式棚户区改造项目风险管理需要，在深入研究国内外PPP模 式理论、棚户区改造理论和项目风险管理相关理论的基础上，对我国棚户区改造 的现状和特点进行了梳理，提炼出棚户区改造相关政策和面临的问题，阐述了项 目实施主体的组成结构及主要职责，总结出项目实施流程，对项目干系人利益倾 向进行了分析。并以Y市棚户区改造项目为例，通过对项目概况、项目运作以及 交易边界的分析介绍，展现了PPP模式下项目的各项具体特征，从而根据项目实 际情况，依据项目风险管理理论，以项目全生命周期风险管理的角度，分析归纳 出PPP模式棚户区改造项目风险识别、风险评估以及风险分担的原则和方法，运 用核检清单法、系统分析法和专家调查法构建起项目风险清单和风险指标体系， 采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法相结合，对项目的风险进行全面评估，并提出 相应的风险应对策略，搭建起具有普适性的PPP模式棚户区改造项目风险管理框 架。最后，运用前文的风险管理框架，对Y市棚户区改造项目进行风险识别和风 险分担，并基于风险模糊综合评价结果，分析得出项目的整体风险水平偏高，且 主要是社会风险和金融风险最为突出的结论，由此提出建立完整项目风险防控系 统的具体措施。 本文将理论研究与实际项目结合起来，弥补了只基于理论层面进行分析的不 足，以项目风险识别、风险分担、风险评估以及风险应对为主线，研究并建立起 PPP模式下棚户区改造风险管理机制，为Y市棚户区改造项目的风险管理实施提 供了理论依据，同时在理论和实践方面对同类型的PPP棚改项目具有一定的参考 摘要 Ⅱ 价值。 关键词：PPP模式，棚户区改造，项目风险管理 ABSTRACT Ⅲ ABSTRACT The renovation of shantytowns is an important livelihood project vigorously promoted by the government, which has improved housing conditions for millions of families in need. At the same time, the supporting municipal infrastructure has enhanced urban functions and the overall modernization level of the city. After a long period of development, the renovation of shantytowns in China has changed from the sporadic reconstruction of industrial and mining enterprises' old houses to the comprehensive construction combining large-scale urban dilapidated old housing demolition and infrastructure construction, from a simple "government-led" mode to a "government-led, market operation" mode. The introduction of Public-Private- Partnership(PPP) model and the promotion of cooperation between the government and social capital in shantytown renovation not only solved the problem of capital shortage, but also gave full play to the market experience and technical advantages of social capital. Greatly improved the efficiency of urban construction and promoted the process of urbanization. However, the shantytown reconstruction project in PPP mode is a complex systematic project, which has the characteristics of staggered interests of all parties, complicated investment and financing structure, and long construction and operation cycle. All these will lead to more risks for the project. Therefore, risk management is the key to success of Public-Private-Partnership shantytown renovation project. This paper conforms to the risk management needs of shantytown reconstruction projects in PPP mode. Based on in-depth studies of domestic and international Public-Private-Partnership model theory, shantytown renovation theory and risk management theory, this paper summarizes the policies and problems related to shantytown renovation, expounds the project principal part composition structure and main responsibilities, summarizes the project implementation process, and analyzes the interest tendency of project stakeholders. Taking the shantytown renovation project in Y city as an example, through the analysis and introduction of project overview, project operation and transaction boundary, the specific characteristics of the project under PPP mode are demonstrated. Based on the actual situation of the project and the theory of project risk management, this paper analyzes and summarizes the principles and ABSTRACT Ⅳ methods of risk identification, risk assessment and risk sharing of Public-Private-Partnership mode shantytown reconstruction project from the perspective of risk management in the whole life cycle. The project risk list and risk index system are constructed by using the check and check list method, systematic analysis method and expert investigation method. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to comprehensively evaluate the risk of the project. And put forward the corresponding risk coping strategies， build a universal PPP mode shantytown renovation project risk management framework. Finally, risk identification and risk sharing for shantytown renovation project in Y city are carried out using the risk management framework mentioned above. Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results, the analysis concludes that the overall risk level of the project is high, and social risk and financial risk are the most prominent conclusions, and then puts forward specific measures to establish a complete project risk prevention and control system. Combining with theoretical research and practical project, this paper makes up for the deficiency of only theoretical analysis. Taking project risk identification, risk sharing, risk assessment, and risk response as the main line, the research and establishment of a shantytown transformation risk management mechanism under the PPP model provides a theoretical basis for the implementation of risk management of shantytown transformation projects in Y City. At the same time, it has a certain reference value for the same type of PPP shantytowns renovation project in the aspect of theory and practice. Keywords: Public-Private-Partnership mode，shantytown renovation，Project risk management 目录 V 目录 第一章 绪论 ....................... 1 1.1 研究背景、目的和意义 ..................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ... 1 1.1.2 研究目的 ... 2 1.1.3 研究意义 ... 3 1.2 国内外文献综述 .. 3 1.2.1 国外研究现状 .......................... 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状 .......................... 6 1.3 研究内容及创新点 ............................. 9 1.3.1 研究内容和技术路线 .............. 9 1.3.2 创新点 ..... 10 1.4 本章小结 ............ 10 第二章 相关理论综述 ..... 12 2.1 PPP模式的相关理论 ........................ 12 2.1.1 公共产品理论 ........................ 12 2.1.2 委托代理理论 ........................ 12 2.1.3 信息不对称理论 .................... 13 2.1.4 风险分担理论 ........................ 13 2.2 棚户区改造的相关理论 ................... 13 2.2.1 棚户区改造相关政策 ............ 13 2.2.2 棚户区改造模式 .................... 15 2.2.3 棚户区改造项目现状及特点 16 2.2.4 棚户区改造项目面临的问题 17 2.3 PPP模式棚户区改造项目的运作 .... 17 2.3.1 项目实施主体 ........................ 17 2.3.2 项目干系人利益倾向分析 .... 18 2.3.3 项目实施主要流程 ................ 19 2.4 本章小结 ............ 20 第三章 Y市棚户区改造项目概况 ................ 21 3.1 项目概况 ............ 21 目录 Ⅵ 3.1.1 项目背景和建设必要性 ........ 21 3.1.2 项目目标 . 22 3.1.3 项目里程碑 ............................ 24 3.2 项目运作 ............ 24 3.2.1 项目运作方式 ........................ 24 3.2.2 项目组织运作结构 ................ 25 3.2.3 项目运作要点 ........................ 25 3.3 项目交易边界 .... 26 3.3.1 权利义务边界 ........................ 26 3.3.2 交易商务条件 ........................ 26 3.3.3 履约保障机制 ........................ 29 3.4