：投资基础设施建设一直以来都是我国拉动经济增长的重要手 段，在过去一直都是由政府主导投资行为，通过由上而下的规划实现 我国的基础设施建设发展。而伴随着经济的发展和社会改革，很多民 间企业已经开始逐渐地加入国家基础设施投资建设中，这样一方面可 以扩大民间资本的投资范围，加强资本的流动性，另一方面可以调动 更多的资金用于社会建设，节约政府资金分配到更加需要改变民生的 地方，同时也引入先进的管理模式和理念，促进了资金的使用效率， 推动社会的进步和经济的发展。 本文首先对国内外成熟的投资风险管理进行了综述，之后对某大 学新校区PPP风险管理体系建设进行了介绍。结合项目案例，根据其 自身的特点和所进行的投资项目，利用定性和定量分析方法进行了风 险因素识别及分析，详细介绍了层次分析法这一风险分析工具。最后 采用多层次多算子数学模型对各个指标因素的危险程度进行逐一考 量，对于整个项目的投资风险得出了一个具体的评价结果，并运用该 评价结果进行了项目风险决策。 根据本文所做分析结果，可以认定大型的建筑企业可以作为合格 的投资主体加入到我国的大学校园建设中，其资质能力和技术水平都 可以保证其具备了圆满完成大学校园PPP项目的能力。但是，大型建 筑企业在投资建设PPP项目过程中依旧存在政府关系，投资人关系等 众多问题需要完善。 根据以上分析，得出我国大型建筑企业作为投资主体之一参与大 学校园建设的PPP项目较为可行，同时在能力方面也具有相当的可能 性。但是，根据案例总结及PPP项目本身的特点，建筑企业参与PPP 项目己经/可能遇到关于与政府关系、与其他投资人关系、与其他参 与人关系方面的诸多问题。 最后本文结合企业投资项目中所面临的风险因素进行了风险控 制对策分析，提出了一系列风险指标因素的控制方式，对类似的PPP 投资项目风险规避提出了宝贵的意见。 关键词：PPP项目；风险识别；风险评价；风险应对 RESEARCH ON RISK EVALUATION OF PPP PROJECT IN A NEW CAMPUS OF A UNIVERSITY BASED ON THE PERSPECTIVE OF ENTERPRISE CONSTRUCTION ZhouHaijun(MBA) Directed by Zhouxiaodong Abstract：Investment in infrastructure construction has always been an important means of stimulating economic growth in China. In the past, it has been a government-led investment behavior, through top-down planning to achieve the development of infrastructure construction in China. With the economic development and social reform, more and more private capital began to participate in infrastructure construction investment. On the one hand, it can expand the scope of private capital investment, strengthen the liquidity of capital, on the other hand, it can mobilize more funds for social construction and save government funds to allocate more. It is necessary to change people's livelihood and introduce advanced management models and concepts to promote the efficiency of the use of funds and promote social progress and economic development. Firstly, this paper summarizes the mature investment risk management strategies at home and abroad, and then introduces the construction of PPP risk management system in a new campus of a university. Combining with the project case, according to its own characteristics and investment projects, this paper identifies and analyses the risk factors using qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, and introduces the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a risk analysis tool in detail. Finally, the multi-level and multi-operator mathematical model is used to consider the risk degree of each index factor one by one, and a concrete evaluation result is obtained for the investment risk of the whole project, and the risk decision of the project is made by using the evaluation result. According to all kinds of analysis, it is concluded that it is very necessary for large construction enterprises in our country to participate in the PPP project of university campus construction as the investor, and at the same time, it is also quite possible in the aspect of ability. However, according to the case summary and the characteristics of the PPP project itself, the construction enterprises involved in the PPP project have may encounter many problems about the relationship with the government, with other investors, with other participants. Finally, this paper combines the risk factors faced by the enterprise investment projects to study the risk control countermeasures, and puts forward a series of risk index factors control methods, and puts forward valuable suggestions for similar PPP venture capital project avoidance. Keywords: ppp Project risk identitication risk evaluation risk response. 目 录 摘要 ..................................................................................................... Ⅰ Abstract ............................................................................................... Ⅲ 第1章 绪 论 ........................................ 1 1.1 选题背景与研究意义 ........................................................... 1 1.1.1 选题背景 ...................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ...................................................................... 3 1.2 文献综述 ............................................................................... 3 1.2.1 关于PPP模式风险评价相关问题 ............................. 4 1.2.2 关于PPP模式风险控制相关问题 ............................. 4 1.2.3 文献述评 ...................................................................... 5 1.3 研究思路、研究方法与内容 ............................................... 6 1.3.1 研究思路 ...................................................................... 6 1.3.2 研究方法 ...................................................................... 6 1.3.3 研究内容 ...................................................................... 7 第2章 PPP模式的相关理论与制度背景分析............................... 9 2.1 理论基础 ............................................................................... 9 2.1.1 经济风险理论 .............................................................. 9 2.1.2 风险预警理论 ............................................................ 10 2.1.3 内部控制制度理论 .................................................... 10 2.2 项目风险管理相关理论 ..................................................... 11 2.3 PPP项目管理相关理论 ...................................................... 11 2.3.1 PPP项目风险存在的周期长 ..................................... 11 2.3.2 PPP项目风险具有复杂性 ......................................... 12 2.3.3 PPP项目风险具有相对性 ......................................... 12 2.3.4 防范PPP项目合同风险至关重要 ........................... 12 2.4 资本运作相关理论 ............................................................. 12 2.4.1 融资 ............................................................................ 12 2.4.2 融资风险管理 ............................................................ 12 2.5 相关法律法规 ..................................................................... 13 2.6 风险管理基本理论选用 ..................................................... 14 第3章 某大学新校区PPP项目介绍及其分析 ............................. 19 3.1 建企某大学新校区PPP项目风险管理概述 .................... 19 3.2 某大学新校区建设PPP项目特点分析 ............................ 21 3.2.1 群体工程且体量较大 ................................................ 21 3.2.2 工期要求紧 ................................................................ 21 3.2.3 投资回报周期长 ........................................................ 21 3.3 某大学新校区PPP项目风险识别 ..................................... 22 3.3.1 项目识别阶段风险识别 ............................................ 22 3.3.2 项目准备阶段风险识别 ............................................ 22 3.3.3 项目采购阶段风险识别 ............................................ 22 3.3.4 项目执行阶段风险识别 ............................................ 23 3.3.5 项目移交阶段风险识别 ............................................ 25 第4章 基于层次分析法（AHP）的某大学新校区PPP项目风险 评价研究 ................................................................................................... 27 4.1 风险分析 ............................................................................. 27 4.1.1 可操作性和完整性原则 ............................................ 28 4.1