目前，我国老龄人口剧增，我国人口结构正面临着重大的变化，我国养老机构的发 展面临养老服务供给不足、床位供需不均、供给质量低下、相关人员素质低下等问题。 所以政府与社会资本方合作是促进养老服务业健康发展的必然途径，而构建养老服务体 系的前提就是保证政府投入和社会资本投入能够适应经济新常态的发展。现在我国的经 济转向质量型和集约型发展，所以在经济增速放缓的情况下，一定会对企业的投资产生 影响，因此对社会资本方的择优选择是推动养老服务向品牌化、连锁化、专业化和规模 化方向发展的首要前提。 本文首先对养老PPP模式发展现状进行研究，发现目前国内外大多数学者对养老产 业的研究是基于整个PPP模式，对社会化养老的研究过于宽泛，研究大多关注的是宏观 层面，没有对养老方面的社会资本方选择进行深层次的探索。本文在结合国内外相关学 者研究基础上，针对养老PPP项目库中的入库案例对社会资本方选择标准进行深入研 究，通过从PPP项目库中找出现有养老PPP项目选择标准，采用案例研究方法总结目 前选择标准，其次将案例研究总结出的标准通过PLS-SEM方程进行分析，发现目前养 老PPP模式社会资本方的选择将实施方案、管理方案以及财务方案作为重要标准，也就 是加强建设方案、运营方案、移交方案、安全及质量保障、日常服务与维护措施、应急 预案、融资能力、投资估算、财务效益等方面的权重。 通过阅读相关文献，并在在“公共选择理论”基础上，将社会资本方的选择标准新 增公众及利益集团的支持、信息透明度、风险防范机制三大方面，其次将这三个大方面 细分成公众意愿、公众满意度、公共关系、利益集团的认可程度、可接受的信息公开程 度、公开的信息的准确性、敢于对养老产品或服务做出保证、政策响应程度、风险管理 能力等九个指标，每个指标都是依据“公共选择理论”并在现有案例中没有体现出来的， 进而通过问卷调查的方法得到由相关学者、评标专家、政府工作人员以及养老行业从事 者所填写纸质或网络问卷，通过PLS-SEM方程对得到的数据进行分析，从而为养老PPP 项目社会资本方的选择标准又增添了公众及利益集团的支持、信息透明度以及风险防范 机制三大方面。 通过在现有标准的基础上进行指标的完善，构建出的综合养老PPP模式社会资本方 选择标准，充分反映出社会公众的意愿，体现出养老项目软服务的特点，为政府部门在 II 养老PPP项目中科学的选择最优合作伙伴提供参考价值，提高政府与社会资本方的合作 能力，以免因对社会资本方选择不利而导致养老PPP项目流产。 关键词：公共选择，养老PPP，社会资本方，选择标准 -III- Abstract Atpresent,China'selderlypopulationisincreasingsharply,andChina'spopulation structureisfacingmajorchanges.ThedevelopmentofChina'selderlycareinstitutionsis facingproblemssuchasinsufficientsupplyofelderlycareservices,unevensupplyand demandofbeds,lowsupplyquality,andlowqualityofrelatedpersonnel.Therefore, cooperationbetweenthegovernmentandsocialcapitalisaninevitablewaytopromotethe healthydevelopmentoftheelderlyserviceindustry,andthepremiseofbuildinganelderly servicesystemistoensurethatgovernmentinvestmentandsocialcapitalinvestmentcan adapttothedevelopmentofthenewnormaleconomy.NowthatChina'seconomyisturning toqualityandintensivedevelopment,sowheneconomicgrowthslowsdown,itwilldefinitely haveanimpactoncorporateinvestment.Therefore,thebestchoiceforsocialcapitalisto promotethebrandingandchainingofold-ageservices.,Theprerequisiteforthedevelopment ofspecializationandscale. ThisarticlefirststudiesthecurrentdevelopmentstatusofthepensionPPPmodel.Itis foundthatmostofthedomesticandforeignscholars'researchonthepensionindustryis basedontheentirePPPmodel.Theresearchonsocializedpensionistoobroad.Thesocial capitalsidechoosestocarryoutin-depthexploration.Basedontheresearchofrelated scholarsathomeandabroad,thisarticleconductsanin-depthstudyontheselectioncriteriaof socialcapitalpartiesforthecasesenteredintothepensionPPPprojectdatabase,andfindsout theexistingpensionPPPprojectselectioncriteriafromthePPPprojectdatabase,usingacase studymethodSummarizethecurrentselectioncriteria,andthenanalyzethestandards summarizedbythecasestudythroughthePLS-SEMequation.Itisfoundthatthecurrent pensionPPPmodelsocialcapitalpartychoosestheimplementationplan,managementplan andfinancialplanasimportantcriteria,thatis,strengtheningtheconstructionplan, Weightingsinoperationplans,transferplans,safetyandqualityassurance,dailyserviceand maintenancemeasures,emergencyplans,financingcapabilities,investmentestimates, financialbenefits,etc. -IV- Afterreadingrelevantliterature,andonthebasisofthe"publicchoicetheory",the selectioncriteriaofthesocialcapitalsidewereaddedtothethreemajoraspectsofpublicand interestgroupsupport,informationtransparency,andriskpreventionmechanisms,followed bythethreemajoraspects.Dividedintothepublicwill,publicsatisfaction,publicrelations, thedegreeofrecognitionofinterestgroups,thedegreeofacceptableinformationdisclosure, theaccuracyofthedisclosedinformation,thecouragetomakeguaranteesforpension productsorservices,thedegreeofpolicyresponse,andriskmanagementcapabilities,etc. Nineindicators,eachofwhichisbasedonthe"publicchoicetheory"andisnotreflectedin existingcases,andisthenobtainedthroughquestionnairesurveysbyrelevantscholars,bid evaluationexperts,governmentworkersandpensionindustrypractitioners.Fillinpaperor internetquestionnairesandanalyzetheobtaineddatathroughthePLS-SEMequation,which addsthepublicandinterestgroupsupport,informationtransparency,andriskprevention mechanismstotheselectioncriteriaforthesocialcapitalsideofpensionPPPprojects. Throughtheimprovementofindicatorsonthebasisofexistingstandards,the comprehensiveselectioncriteriaforthesocialcapitalsideofthecomprehensivepensionPPP modelareconstructed,whichfullyreflectsthewishesofthepublicandthecharacteristicsof softservicesforpensionprojects.SinoScienceselectsthebestpartnertoprovidereference value,andenhancesthegovernment'sabilitytocooperatewiththesocialcapitalside,soas nottocausemiscarriageofthepensionPPPprojectduetotheadverseselectionofthesocial capitalside. KeyWords：PublicChoice,Old-agePPP,SocialCapitalSide,SelectionCriteria 目录 摘要..........................................................................................................I Abstract......................................................................................................III 第一章绪论..................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景...........................................................................................................2 1.2研究目的与研究意义.......................................................................................2 1.2.1理论意义...............................................................................................2 1.2.2实践意义...............................................................................................3 1.3研究内容...........................................................................................................4 1.4研究方法...........................................................................................................5 1.5技术路线...........................................................................................................6 1.6论文创新点.......................................................................................................7 第二章国内外研究现状与PPP相关概念.................................................8 2.1养老PPP模式研究现状...................................................................................8 2.2养老PPP项目社会资本方选择综述.............................................................11 2.3公共选择理论综述.........................................................................................13 2.4研究现状总结.................................................................................................15 2.5PPP模式相关概述..........................................................................................15 2.5.1PPP模式概念界定..............................................................................15 2.5.2养老PPP模式主要参与方.................................................................16 2.5.3养老PPP模式体系.............................................................................17 2.6养老PPP模式社会资本方界定.....................................................................18 2.6.1养老PPP项目社会资本方角色定位......................