作为世界上最大的发展中国家，中国自改革开放以来，经历了经济的持续高 速增长，目前已经成为世界上第二大经济体。但是与此同时，中国的能源消费和 碳排放总量也在不断增长，面临着越来越多来自国际社会和国内舆论的减排压力。 为此，中国政府一直在积极努力探索减少碳排放与稳定经济增长并重的发展路径。 在此背景下，本文以中国30个盛自治区和直辖市1997-2016年的经济发展与 碳排放数据作为研究对象，构建碳减排潜力指数，并利用空间计量经济学的检验 方法验证碳减排潜力是否具有空间集聚性。文章通过空间SDM模型探讨中国30 个盛自治区和直辖市的碳减排潜力的关键影响因素，并分析影响因素对碳减排 潜力的作用机制与空间溢出效应。最后，文章为各地区政府制定碳减排目标以及 加强区域碳减排合作提供理论支持与政策建议。本文的主要研究成果如下： （1）1997年以来，中国总体碳排放水平呈持续上升趋势，尚未达到碳排放 量峰值，但增长速度已明显放缓。从空间分布来看，各地区的碳排放水平也呈现 出较大的差异。山东、江苏、广东、河北、山西和辽宁研究样本期内的平均碳排 放量水平最高，合计占全国碳排放总量的40.45%；天津、江西、北京、重庆、宁 夏、青海和海南的整体碳排放量较低，占全国碳排放总量平均值的8.55%。 （2）碳减排潜力指数存在明显的区域差异性。1997-2016年中国30个盛 自治区和直辖市的碳减排潜力均呈现总体平稳并略有下降的趋势，但是碳减排成 本及潜力水平的差异明显，空间分布不平衡。总体来说，宁夏、上海、山西、青 海和天津等地区具有较大的减排政策实行空间，这5个地区的减排潜力占全国二 氧化碳可行减排量的33.4%，对国家减排目标的达成具有重要影响力。 （3）中国30个盛自治区和直辖市的碳减排潜力指数呈现显著的空间相关 性，存在明显的正向集聚效应。同时，随着跨区域的经济活动愈发频繁，区域间 的往来联系越来越紧密，相互作用影响也越来越大，各地区的碳减排潜力的空间 集聚也在日益加强。我国碳减排潜力的局部空间自相关性较为稳定，处于“高- 高”集聚和“低-低”集群象限的省份最多。 （4）经济发展水平、人口集聚、能源强度和投资研发水平都对提高区域碳 减排潜力具有明显的促进作用，且其影响程度递减；城镇化对碳减排潜力具有显 著的抑制作用；对外开放水平和工业结构对碳排放潜力指数的作用不显著。进一 步分析各因素的空间效应，发现经济发展水平、能源强度和工业结构对我国的碳 减排潜力指数都存在显著的空间溢出效应，其中经济发展水平和能源强度的空间 溢出作用为负，工业结构的空间溢出作用为正。 关键词：碳减排潜力，空间Durbin模型，空间溢出效应，影响因素 II Abstract As the largest developing country in the world, China has experienced sustained and rapid economic growth since the reform and opening up, and has now become the world's second largest economy. However, at the same time, China's energy consumption and carbon emissions are also growing, facing increasing pressure from the international community and domestic public opinion. And for this, the Chinese government has made a series of efforts to reduce carbon emissions and stabilize economic growth at the same time. In this paper, we take the economic development and carbon emission data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 1997 to 2016 as the research object, constructs the carbon emission abatement capacity index (CACI), and use the method of spatial econometrics to analysis whether the carbon emission reduction potential at the provincial level has spatial agglomeration. Furthermore, this paper identifies the key factors of China's provincial carbon emission abatement potential through spatial SDM model, and analyzes the mechanism and spatial spillover effects of these influencing factors. Finally, this paper provides theoretical support and policy advice for regional governments to set carbon emission reduction targets and strengthen regional carbon reduction cooperation. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) Since 1997, China's overall carbon emission has continued to rise, and has not yet reached the peak, but the growth rate has noticeably slowed down. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the carbon emission of different regions also show great gaps. Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hebei, Shanxi and Liaoning have the high average carbon emissions during the research period, accounting for the 40.45% of national total carbon emissions; Tianjin, Jiangxi, Beijing, Chongqing, Ningxia, Qinghai and Hainan have lower overall carbon emissions, accounting for the 8.55% of the national total carbon emissions. (2) There are obvious regional differences in the carbon emission abatement index. During 1997-2016, the carbon emission reduction potentials of all provinces and regions in China showed an slightly decreasing trend, but the carbon emission reduction III costs and potential levels were significantly different. The distribution is also not balanced. In general, Ningxia, Shanghai, Shanxi, Qinghai and Tianjin have large implementation space for emission reduction policies. The emission reduction potential of these five regions accounts for 33.4% of the national carbon dioxide emission reductions, and have significant influence to the national reduction target. (3) The carbon emission abatement potential at the provincial level shows significant positive spatial agglomeration effect. At the same time, with the increasing frequency of economic activities across regions, the interactions among regions are becoming more and more important. The spatial agglomeration of carbon emission reduction potential in various regions is also strengthening at the provincial level. The local spatial autocorrelation is relatively stable, with the most provinces are in the “high-high” cluster and the “low-low” cluster quadrant. (4) The level of economic development, population agglomeration, energy intensity and investment of R&D all have significant effect in promoting regional carbon emission reduction potential, and its impact is diminishing; urbanization has a significant negative effect on carbon emission reduction potential. The influence of foreign trade degree and industry structure on the carbon emission potential is not significant. Further analysis found that the level of economic development, energy intensity and industrial structure have significant spatial spillover effects on the carbon emission reduction potential at the provincial level in China, and the spatial spillover effects of economic development level and energy intensity are negative, the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure is positive. KEY WORDS：Carbon emission abatement capacity, SDM model, Spillover effects, Influencing factors IV 目 录 第1章 绪论.................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景 ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究目标与研究意义 .................................................................................. 3 1.2.1 研究目标 ............................................................................................ 3 1.2.2 研究意义 ............................................................................................ 4 1.3 技术路线与文章结构 .................................................................................. 5 1.3.1 技术路线 ............................................................................................ 5 1.3.2 论文结构 ............................................................................................ 6 1.4 本章小结 ...................................................................................................... 7 第2章 相关文献研究综述.......................................................................................... 9 2.1 碳排放总量研究 .......................................................................................... 9 2.2 碳排放影响因素研究 ................................................................................ 10 2.3 碳排放与经济增长关系研究 .................................................................... 13 2.4 碳排放空间计量研究 ................................................................................ 14 2.5 文献评述与创新点 .................................................................................... 15 2.6 本章小结 ........