项目的投资可行性研究是企业投资管理活动中十分重要的环节。在市场经济 条件下，针对投资项目科学地进行市场分析和预测，合理地确定投资项目的规模、 预测项目的经济效益，是企业项目投资成功的可靠保障。 本文从山西兰花科创股份有限公司的经营现状及公司的近期发展规划及煤 矿市场现状入手进行分析，采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法，通过对项目 所在地的人口、经济发展状况和能源需求等情况进行预测，结合国家的相关政策， 提出了玉溪煤矿项目的实施方案及合理投资规模，并确定了项目实施的进度指 标。 本文还对项目进行了经济评价，分析了项目的投资成本、赢利能力、清偿能 力，并进行了敏感性分析和盈亏平衡分析，为企业对本项目的决策立项提供科学 客观的依据。 关键词: 投资决策 市场预测 投资估算 盈利分析ABSTRACT Project feasibility study is a very important aspect in enterprises’ investment management activities. In a market economy environment, scientifically make market analysis and forecasting, reasonably determine the size of investment and correctly predict the economic benefits of the project is the business guarantee of investment success. In this paper, according to the Lanhua Company's management status and the latest development plan, and the national policies, adopting qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method, through the coal market situation analysis, the forecasting for the project site’s population, economic development and energy demand, etc., we propose Yuxi coal projects’ implementation plan and a reasonable investment, and identify the progress indicators of project implementation. In addition, the paper also makes the economic evaluation, analysis of the project's investment cost, profitability, liquidity, and makes a sensitivity analysis and breakeven analysis. Key words: investment decision-making, market forecasts, estimatet investment, profitability analysis目 录 第一章 绪论........................................................................................................1 1.1 本项目对晋城市经济发展的意义...........................................................1 1.2 本项目对投资企业发展的意义...............................................................2 1.3 本文的研究思路和方法...........................................................................2 第二章 兰花公司经营现状概述.........................................................................4 2.1 兰花公司经营现状...................................................................................4 2.2 公司组织结构...........................................................................................4 2.3 公司目前存在的主要问题.......................................................................5 第三章 煤炭市场综述.........................................................................................7 3.1 煤炭市场供需分析...................................................................................7 3.1.1 国际煤炭市场.................................................................................7 3.1.2 国内煤炭市场.................................................................................8 3.2 煤炭市场需求预测...................................................................................8 3.3 煤炭市场发展展望.................................................................................10 第四章 玉溪煤矿项目建设影响因素分析.......................................................11 4.1 玉溪煤矿资源条件分析.........................................................................11 4.1.1 煤层贮存条件...............................................................................11 4.1.2 矿井水文地质情况.......................................................................12 4.1.3 瓦斯及煤尘情况...........................................................................13 4.1.4 其它内部条件...............................................................................14 4.1.5 内部资源条件综合评价...............................................................14 4.2 玉溪煤矿建设条件分析..........................................................................15 4.2.1 国家政策对玉溪煤矿建设的影响...............................................15 4.2.2 外部运输条件分析.......................................................................16 4.2.3 水、电、通讯及主要建设材料供应分析...................................16 4.2.4 外部建设条件综合评价...............................................................17 第五章 玉溪煤矿项目实施方案.......................................................................18 5.1 项目建设实施方案.................................................................................18 5.1.1 煤矿设施建设方案.......................................................................18 5.1.2 煤矿开采实施方案.......................................................................23 5.1.3 煤矿组织机构及人力资源配置...................................................265.2 项目建设实施计划.................................................................................28 5.2.1 施工准备的内容与进度...............................................................28 5.2.2 煤矿主体工程建设指标与进度...................................................28 5.2.3 矿井移交标准...............................................................................29 5.2.4 加快建井速度的措施...................................................................29 第六章 玉溪煤矿项目财务分析.......................................................................30 6.1 投资估算与资金筹措.............................................................................30 6.1.1 资金估算.......................................................................................30 6.1.2 资金筹措.......................................................................................31 6.2 财务评价.................................................................................................32 6.2.1 基础数据与参数选取...................................................................32 6.2.2 成本费用估算...............................................................................33 6.2.3 销售收入估算...............................................................................36 6.3 财务分析.................................................................................................37 6.3.1 盈利能力分析...............................................................................37 6.3.2 清偿能力分析...............................................................................38 6.3.3 敏感性分析...................................................................................38 6.3.4 盈亏平衡分析...............................................................................39 6.4 产品方案研究.........................................................................................40 6.5 综合评价.................................................................................................41 结束语...................................................................................................................42