随 着 电 信 技 术 的 更 新 换 代 ， 电 信 市 场 竞 争 日 益 激 烈 ， 中 国 电 信 面 临 着 前 所 未 有的困难和挑战。移动通信已成为未来电信业的主要利润来源之一。投资 3G 移 动通信项目，进入移动通信领域，已成为中国电信发展的迫切要求。 本 文 通 过 翔 实 的 数 据 ， 全 面 分 析 了 中 国 电 信 所 处 的 外 部 环 境 和 电 信 行 业 状 况，介绍了 3G 技术的发展现状，探讨 3G 技术与其他无线技术的竞争关系；分析了 全球 3G 业务的发展状况，以及 3G 业务运营比较成功的韩国和日本运营商的成功经 验。指出中国移动通信市场仍然存在 巨 大的 获 利空间 和投资 机会； 第三代移 动通 信(3G)技术己基本成熟，在全球获得了大规模商用；中国发展 3G 业务的条件也 基本成熟。 文章分析了中国市场 3G 业务的发展过程，预测了 2007-2010 年中国市场 3G 业 务的用户总规模。运用 SWOT 模型和核心竞争力理论，分析了中国电信开展 3G 业 务的优势和劣势及其竞争能力，探讨了中国电信 3G 业务的市场定位与目标市场选 择，同时提出了相应的业务发展总体策略。在此基础上，进一步预测中国电信 3G 业 务的市场占有率和用户规模。 本文分析了中国电信发展 3G 的特殊性，提出中国电信 3G 网络建设的策略。指 出本项目对 3G 技术标准的选择，关键取决于国家信息产业部颁发给中国电信的牌 照类型。但还是从符合市场需求和竞争的角度，分析中国电信 3G 网络技术标准的 最优选择，认为本项目的 3G 技术标准选择 WCDMA 为宜。建议本项目的建设规模 为 5000 万户，建设期为 3 年，估算投资额为 700 亿元。 最 后 ， 从 企 业 理 财 的 角 度 ， 对 项 目 进 行 财 务 评 价 。 并 分 析 了 项 目 可 能 面 临 的 风险，并提出了应对风险的策略。 通过可行性研究，中国电信投资 3G 移动通信项目，不仅是必要的，也是可行 的；中国电信应尽早上马建设 3G 移动通信项目。 关键词，电信；3G；移动通信；投资项目；可行性研究工商管理硕士学位报告 -III- Abstract With the upgrading and updating of telecommunication technologies, competition in telecommunication market has become more and more intense. China Telecom is being confronted with unexperienced difficulties and challenges.Mobile telecommunication is one of the mostly source of profit for future telecom industry. The urgent demand of development of China Telecom requests to invest 3G Project and enter China's mobile telecommunication market. The paper makes an overall analysis on present exterior environment and telecom industrial status on the basis of full and accurate datum, and presents the status of 3G technology, the competition relations between 3G and other wireless technologies, overseas 3G service development and the successful experience in Korea and Japan.Then this paper points out that enormous profits and great opportunity still exist in China's mobile telecommunication market, and 3G has become more mature and been applied commercially in a large scale, the conditions of 3G development in China has also become mature. The paper forecasts the development process of 3G service and the subscribers number of 3G service in China. SWOT model and Core Competition Power Theory are also applied to analyze the strength and weakness of China Telecom in 3G service.China Telecom's 3G market orientation and target market choosing strategy and the strategies for 3G business development are discussed. On the basis of above discussion, the paper forecasts the subscribers number and market penetrating rate of China Telecom's 3G service. The traits of China Telecom's 3G project are discussed and some strategies on network construction are put forward in the paper. The paper points out that which standard the project would adopt is decided by the licence granted by Ministry of Information Industry, but still gives an answer to the question of which standard should adopt from market demand and competition angle, that is to say, WCDMA should be adopted. Then the paper suggests that the 3G network's design capability should reach 50 million users, and construction period should be 3 years, and the entire investment of the projects would reach 70 billion RMB. Finally, an evaluation on the project was given from a corporation financing angle. Risk analysis on 3G project is made and risk prevented strategy is also proposed in the中国电信投资 3G 移动通信项目可行性研究 -IV- paper. Based on the result of the feasibility study on the project, the paper consider that it is not only necessary but also feasible for China Telecom to invest 3G project, and China Telecom should construct the project as soon as possible. Key words: Telecom; Third-Generation Mobile Telecom Technology (3G); MobileTelecommunication; Investment Project; Feasibility Study工商管理硕士学位报告 -V- 目 录 摘要........................................................................................................................II ABSTRACT............................................................................................................. III 第 1 章 绪论 .............................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ............................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 选题背景 ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外理论研究现状 ........................................................................................ 2 1.3 报告研究思路 ................................................................................................... 6 第 2 章 外部环境与市场现状分析 ..........................................................................7 2.1 中国电信外部环境分析 .................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 政治经济因素的影响.................................................................................. 7 2.1.2 社会文化技术因素的影响 .......................................................................... 8 2.2 中国移动通信市场现状分析 ............................................................................ 9 2.2.1 中国电信市场总体状况分析 ...................................................................... 9 2.2.2 中国移动通信市场现状与发展趋势 ........................................................ 12 2.3 3G 技术与市场发展现状 ................................................................................. 14 2.3.1 3G 技术演进及发展现状 ........................................................................... 14 2.3.2 3G 技术与其他无线技术比较 ................................................................... 15 2.3.3 3G 业务分类 .............................................................................................. 18 2.3.4 国外 3G 业务发展现状 ............................................................................. 19 2.3.5 中国发展 3G 业务的条件已基本成熟...................................................... 21 第 3 章 中国电信 3G 业务预测 .............................................................................23 3.1 中国市场 3G 业务预测 ................................................................................... 23 3.1.1 业务预测的基本假设与重要前提 ............................................................ 23 3.1.2 中国市场 3G 业务发展过程预测 ............................................................. 23 3.1.3 全国 3G 用户总规模预测 ....................................................................... 23 3.2 中国电信 3G 业务预测 ................................................................................... 26 3.2.1 国内用户选择移动运营商的考虑因素分析 ............................................. 27 3.2.2 中国电信 3G 业务竞争能力分析 ............................................................. 29中国电信投资 3G 移动通信项目可行性研究 -VI- 3.2.3 中国电信 3G 业务发展策略 ..................................................................... 33 3.2.4 中国电信 3G 业务市场占有率与用户总数预测 ...................................... 35 第 4 章 中国电信 3G 网络建设规划 ..................................................................... 37 4.1 中国电信发展 3G 的特