2015 年 3 月 15 日，中共中央国务院发布关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干 意见（中发〔2015〕9 号文件），明确提出积极发展分布式能源，全面放开用户侧 分布式能源市场。天然气分布式能源是建设在用户端或用户负荷中心的天然气综 合利用系统，以热电冷联产技术为基础，与配电网和天然气管网组网运行，并向 一定区域内的用户或特定用户同时提供电力、蒸汽、热水和空调冷水等能源服务。 天然气分布式能源是以资源、环境效益最大化、以供需最佳确定匹配方式和容量 的系统，具备现代能源系统高效、安全、低碳、绿色、集约、精细化、智能化的 特点。本文通过对四川省 M 天然气分布式能源项目进行财务可行性研究，为该项 目的建设提供了重要依据，具有重要的理论和工程指导意义。 本文分为六章。第一章主要研究本文的背景、投资项目概况、内容框架和主 要意义；第二章主要研究天然气分布式能源面临的投资环境，采用波特五力分析 法分析了四川省天然气分布式能源市场；第三章主要研究 M 天然气分布式能源项 目的技术方案；第四章主要研究该项目的财务评价；第五章主要研究项目的风险 评价及防范措施；第六章是本文的结论，并从可持续发展的角度为行业健康、有 序发展提出建议。 本文依据对 M 天然气分布式能源项目的用能数据分析，本项目规划建设 2 套 60 兆瓦等级燃气-蒸汽联合循环分布式能源机组，工程总装机容量 109 兆瓦，项目 建成并投产后，全年直供电量 14520 万千瓦时，上网电量为 36678.68 万千瓦时， 售蒸汽量为 22.77 万吨，售冷量为 152.6 万吉焦。在天然气价格 1.77 元/立方米， 上网电价 613 元/兆瓦时，直供电价 560 元/兆瓦时，售冷价 73.45 元/吉焦，供蒸汽 价格 220 元/吨的条件下，项目投资内部收益率 8.39%，项目投资净现值 2595.09 万元（基准收益率=8%），项目资本金内部收益率 12.5%，项目资本金净现值 6440.84 万元（基准收益率=10%），满足相关企业的投资标准，论证出本项目具备投资可 行性。并对天然气价格、售电价格、供热（冷）价格、总投资等因素进行敏感性 分析，分析出项目具备较强的抗风险能力。 关键词，天然气分布式能源项目，冷热电三联供，财务评价，可行性研究II ABSTRACT In March 15, 2015, the CPC Central Committee and State Council issued several opinions on further deepening the reform of electric power system (Document No. 9 in 2015), which clearly put forward to develop the distributed energy system actively, and open the distributed energy market on the user side comprehensively. Natural gas distributed energy system refers to the natural gas comprehensive utilization system built at the user side or in the user’s load center. Based on CCHP technology, its operation cooperates with the power distribution network and natural gas pipeline network, and it provides the energy services such as electricity, steam, hot water and air conditioning cold water to the specific users or the users in a certain region at the same time. The system’s matching mode and capacity is determined by maximizing the resources and environment benefits and optimizing the supply and demand, with the modern energy system characteristics of high efficiency, safety, low carbon, green, centralization, elaboration and intellectualization. Through the financial feasibility study of Sichuan M natural gas distributed energy project, this thesis provides an important basis for the project’s construction stage, and it has important theoretical and engineering guidance significance. This thesis is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 mainly studies the background, the investment project’s overview, the content framework and the main significance of this thesis; Chapter 2 mainly studies the investment environment of the natural gas distributed energy, and adopts Potter’s five analysis method to analyze the natural gas distributed energy market in Sichuan province; Chapter 3 studies the technical scheme of M natural gas distributed energy project; Chapter 4 makes the financial evaluation of the project; Chapter 5 mainly studies the risk assessment and preventive measures of the project; Chapter 6 makes a conclusion and gives some suggestions for the industry healthy and orderly development from the point of view of sustainable development. In this thesis, based on the energy data analysis of M natural gas distributed energy project, this project is planned to construct 2 sets of 60MW gas-steam combined cycle distributed energy units with a total installed capacity of 109MW. After the project puts into operation, the annual direct power supply is 145.2 million kWh, the electricity connected to the grid is 366.7868 million kWh, the steam sales volume is 227.7III thousand tons, and the cold sales volume is 1526 thousand GJ. On the condition that the natural gas price is RMB 1.77 Yuan/m^3, the sales price of the electricity connected to the Grid is RMB 613 Yuan/MWh, the sales price of the electricity supplied to the customers is RMB 560 Yuan/MWh, the cold water sales price is RMB 73.45 Yuan/GJ and the steam sales price is RMB 220 Yuan/Ton, it could be calculated out that the project internal rate of return of investment is 8.39%, its investment net present value is RMB 25.9509 million (the benchmark yield is 8%), its internal rate of return of capital is 12.5%, and its capital net present value is RMB 64.4084 million (the benchmark yield is 10%). The above data meet the relevant investment standards and it proves that this project owns investment feasibility. In the meanwhile, through the sensitivity analysis of natural gas price, electricity prices, heating (and/or cooling) sales price and the total investment, it could be got the result that this project has a strong ability to resist risks. Keywords:Natural gas distributed energy project, CCHP, Financial evaluation, Feasibility studyIV 目 录 第一章 绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景................................................................................................................1 1.2 投资项目概况........................................................................................................2 1.3 研究的主要意义....................................................................................................2 1.3.1 天然气是能源转型过渡阶段的重要能源.....................................................2 1.3.2 发展天然气分布式能源有利于提高供能可靠性.........................................3 1.3.3 天然气分布式能源具有显著的节能减排效益.............................................3 1.4 研究思路及报告框架............................................................................................3 1.4.1 研究基本思路.................................................................................................3 1.4.2 研究方法.........................................................................................................4 1.4.3 报告框架.........................................................................................................4 第二章 行业投资环境分析.............................................................................................6 2.1 宏观环境分析........................................................................................................6 2.1.1 政策环境.........................................................................................................6 2.1.2 经济环境.........................................................................................................7 2.1.3 社会环境.........................................................................................................8 2.1.4 技术环境.........................................................................................................9 2.2 省内市场分析......................................................................................................10 2.2.1 供应商的议价能力.......................................................................................10 2.2.2 购买者的议价能力.......................................................................................14 2.2.3 新进入者的威胁...........................................................................................16 2.2.4 替代品的威胁...............................................................................................16 2.2.5 同业竞争者的