H 医院经过多年发展，诊疗水平不断提高，在医疗保健方面为人民大众做出卓越的 贡献，诊疗病人群不断增多。与此同时，医院的现有建筑面积、环境不足问题尤为突出。 因此医院近期实施改扩建工程，扩大其营业面积和接待能力。同时，为响应国家“十三 五”能源减排、低碳经济的政策分针，H 医院考虑使用高效节能的天然气分布式能源系 统解决新建大楼与部分旧院的能源供应问题。 基于此，本文以 H 医院改扩建阶段能源改造技术方案为出发点，基于项目可行性研 究框架，对于 H 医院建设的天然气分布式能源系统项目的可行性进行分析。首先，对 H 医院建设天然气分布式供能系统的已有资源、潜在资源以及待增资源进行分析，认为 H 医院的资源环境满足建设分布式能源系统的条件；其次，从新能源系统需承担的供能负 荷出发对分布式系统设备、工艺流程与运行方案进行分析，认为目前的技术水平能够支 撑 H 医院建设分布式能源系统；然后，从经济效益方面对分布式能源系统项目进行分析 和研究，结果显示该项目能带来与同类相比更好的经济效益，在经济上切实可行；最后， 从多方面对该项目可能遇到的风险与产生的社会影响进行分析阐述，并根据该项目可能 遇到的风险进行分析并给出一定建议。 基于本文分析，可以知道 H 医院天然气分布式能源系统项目实施方案可靠，系统建 设所需资源能够满足，技术水平能够满足 H 医院需求，并且具备一定的经济效益.虽然 该项目可能存在一定的风险，但是风险可以避免或减少，与项目带来的环保效益、社会 效益、经济效益相比，可以接受。通过对 H 医院天然气分布式能源系统项目的可行性进 行全面分析，得到客观的评价结果，将更有利于投资方对方案的选择与判断，也希望能 够为同行业机构进行天然气分布式能源系统改造或建设项目的规划提供一定的借鉴。 关键词，分布式能源；节能减排；投资决策；SWOT；德尔菲法II ABSTRACT As a large energy user, the manner to save resources, reduce energy consumption and reduce energy consumption costs has become one of the important indicators for building modern hospitals. H Hospital hopes to take the opportunity of building a new integrated building to improve it’s functional system that can meet the requirements of advanced technology and green environmental protection. The distributed energy supply mode of natural gas possesses the characteristics of high efficiency, low emission, less investment and short period. So, H Hospital proposes to use natural gas distributed energy technology to meet the energy needs of new and old residential areas. Therefore, based on the energy technology plan of H hospital, the paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the project’s feasibility. Under the framework of the feasibility Analysis, the paper analyzes the technical feasibility, economic rationality, operational mode applicability, risk analysis, and social impact of the distributed energy supply system. Firstly, the paper analyzes the existing resources, potential resources and resources to be added to the natural gas distributed energy supply system of H hospital. It can be considered that the resources and environment of H hospital meet the conditions for building a distributed energy system. Secondly, base on the supply that the new energy system needs to bear , the paper analyzes the distributed system equipment, process flow and operation plan of the distributed energy system. It is believed that the current technical level can support H hospital to build a distributed energy system. After that, through the comprehensive analysis and research on distributed energy system projects from multiple dimensions, it can be considered that the project is economically. Finally, the paper also analyzes the risks that may be encountered in the project and gives certain suggestions. Overall, based on the analysis of this paper, we can say that the H hospital's natural gas distributed energy system project implementation plan is reliable, the system construction needs resources the technical level can be met. Although the project may exist some risks, but the risks can be avoided or reduced, which is acceptable compared with the environmental benefits, social benefits and economic benefits brought by the project. Through a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of the H hospital's natural gas distributed energy system project, the paper gets objective evaluation results. It will be more conducive to investors' choice of the program, and provides some reference for other projects. Key words: DistributedEnergy; Energy Saving and Emission Reduction; Investment Decision; SWOT; Delphi MethodIII 目录 摘要 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I ABSTRACT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II 目录-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------III 图表清单 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ⅵ 第一章绪论 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 1.1 研究背景、目的和意义.................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 选题背景................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究目的和意义...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国内外分布式能源研究现状................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 可行性分析............................................................................................................... 4 1.3 研究内容、方法及技术路线.......................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 研究内容.................................................................................................................. 6 1.3.2 研究方法.................................................................................................................. 7 1.3.3 技术路线................................................................................................................... 8 第二章 H 医院发展天然气分布式供能系统的必要性 .....................................................10 2.1 H 医院简介 .................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 H 医院的供能需求分析 ................................................................................................ 11 2.2.1 H 医院的供能现状 ................................................................................................. 11 2.2.2 H 医院的能耗状况分析 ......................................................................................... 13 2.2.3 H 医院能源系统持续运转的困境 ......................................................................... 14 2.3 H 医院发展分布式能源项目的外部环境分析 ............................................................ 16 2.3.1 政策环境分析......................................................................................................... 16 2.3.2 行业发展趋势......................................................................................................... 17 2.3.3 市场环境分析......................................................................................................... 17 2.4 医院新建医疗综合大楼的基本方案 ........................................................................... 18 2.4.1 项目建设目标与选址............................................................................................ 18 2.4.2 基于分布式能源系统的总体方案........................................................................ 20 2.4.3 基于常规能源系统的总体方案............................................................................. 20 2.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 2