I 摘要 随着环境污染严重性的日益增加，国内外新型清洁能源的开发和利用也越来 越受到人们的关注。而天然气分布式能源系统既可以实现对能源的多次循环利用， 还能够提供多种能源服务，同时能够大大提高能源使用效率，减少环境污染，大 大减少能源供应和输送的相关基础设施的投资成本。在可预见的未来，投资清洁 能源输送领域大有可为。通过对四川省 L 工业园区天然气分布式能源系统进行初 步的可行性分析和经济评估，有利于决策者与投资者进行合理分析，判断项目的 可行性。因此，项目经济评价方法的全面性、准确性和可靠性对项目的设计和发 展十分重要。经济评价方法的可靠、准确，将有助于进一步发展天然气分布式能 源项目。 本文以四川省 L 工业园区天然气分布式能源项目作为投资评价研究对象，采 用一般工程建设项目经济评价理论对具体项目进行了分析，得出总体建设方案和 改进建议。项目投资的合理性和可行性是取决于对投资项目的财务可行性得评估、 项目不确定性的分析和投资环境安全的分析。同时，通过对项目市场分析和项目 在经济评价研究中所获得的各种数据进行比较，项目公司和投资者可以得到正确 的投资结论意见和项目方案优化建议，具有很强的现实意义。从项目投资者的角 度出发，将天然气能源建设项目的经济评价与其他能源投资建设项目分开，对该 项目的经济效益进行了详细的研究和评价，扩大理论应用范围，为相关项目的决 策及建设提供了一定的借鉴和参考。 关键词，天然气，分布式能源，项目投资，可行性ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT With the increasing severity of environmental pollution, the development and utilization of new clean energy at home and abroad has also received more and more attention. As a model of new energy application, natural gas distributed energy system can not only realize the step-by-step utilization of energy resources, provide a variety of energy services and improve energy efficiency, but also reduce environmental pollution, improve living environment and greatly save energy supply terminal. The investment cost of transporting energy has broad development space in the foreseeable future. The economic evaluation of natural gas distributed energy system provides decision-making information for project decision-makers, which affects the feasibility of the project. Therefore, the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the economic evaluation method of the project is of great significance to the future of the project. The reliability and accuracy of the economic evaluation method will help to further develop natural gas distributed energy projects. This paper takes the natural gas distributed energy project of Sichuan L Industrial Park as the research object for economic evaluation, uses the theory of economic evaluation of general engineering construction projects to analyze specific projects, and obtains general improvement plans and suggestions. Through the economic evaluation, uncertainty analysis and environmental safety prediction of project investment, the feasibility and rationality of project investment are clarified. At the same time, through the comparative data of market analysis, financial evaluation and various schemes obtained from the research of project economic evaluation, investors and enterprises can get correct concluding opinions and suggestions, which has strong practical significance. From the perspective of project investors, this paper separates the economic evaluation of pipeline natural gas construction projects from general projects, makes practical evaluation of economic benefits with rich and detailed research materials, and constantly expands the scope of application in order to provide reference and reference for other similar projects. Keywords，Natural Gas, Distributed Energy, Project Investment, Feasibility目录 III 目录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景 ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 研究的主要意义 ................................................................................................. 3 1.2.1 理论意义 .................................................................................................. 3 1.2.2 实践意义 .................................................................................................. 3 1.3 研究思路及论文框架 ......................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 研究基本思路 .......................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 研究方法 .................................................................................................. 4 1.3.3 论文框架 .................................................................................................. 4 第二章 项目投资可行性理论及天然气能源行业投资环境研究................................ 6 2.1 项目投资可行性研究的概念 ............................................................................. 6 2.2 项目可行性研究的特点 ..................................................................................... 6 2.3 项目可行性研究的主要内容 ............................................................................. 7 2.4 项目可行性方法 ................................................................................................. 7 2.5 行业宏观环境分析 ............................................................................................ 8 2.5.1 政策环境 .................................................................................................. 8 2.5.2 经济环境 .................................................................................................. 9 2.5.3 社会环境 .................................................................................................. 9 2.5.4 技术环境 ................................................................................................ 10 2.6 区域市场分析 ...................................................................................................11 2.6.1 供应商的议价能力 .................................................................................11 2.6.2 购买者的议价能力 ................................................................................ 12 2.6.3 新进入者的威胁 .................................................................................... 14 2.6.4 替代品的威胁 ........................................................................................ 14 2.6.5 同业竞争者的竞争程度 ........................................................................ 15 第三章 L 工业园区天然气分布式能源项目方案....................................................... 17 3.1L 工业园区天然气分布式能源项目概况......................................................... 17 3.1.1 项目背景 ................................................................................................. 17 3.1.2 项目概况 ................................................................................................. 17 3.1.3 L 工业园区天然气分布式能源项目概况.............................................. 17目录 IV 3.2 L 工业园区耗能负荷的确定............................................................................ 18 3.2.1 市电网现状 ............................................................................................. 18 3.2.2 市电网发展规划 ..................................................................................... 18 3.2.3 L 工业园区电力负荷预测...................................................................... 19 3.3 投资估算 ........................................................................................................... 19 3.3.1 投资估算概况 ......................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 投资估算主要参数 ................................................................................. 20 3.4 项目资金来源及资金使用方案 ....................................................................... 21 第四章 L 工业园区天然气分布式能源项目投资经济效益分析............................... 23 4.1 成本费用估算 ................................................................................................... 23 4.1.1 成本