房地产作为国民经济发展的重点支柱产业，正处于蓬勃发展阶段。而我国房地产普 遍存在的负债融资开发以及工程建设固有的长周期的特点决定了该行业潜在的高风险。 随着近些年市场竞争激烈以及政府对房地产市场相继出台调控政策，房地产企业的财务 风险更加突出，尤其是对于非上市的中小企业来说，更是缺乏可以直接适用的财务风险 预警系统。因此对于房地产企业而言，建立系统的财务预警体系用于提前预测并防范风 险具有现实的意义。 有效的财务预警系统能够为企业及时捕捉到企业日常经营过程中潜藏的风险，提前预 测财务风险的程度，在财务风险转变为现实危机之前将预测结果传递给企业的管理层，为 其下一步决策提供依据。 本文以财务风险预警理论为依据，围绕 Z 模型财务预警模型，选取温州房地产 A 企业 的财务风险预警作为案例分析的对象。首先，梳理财务风险预警的理论基础，重点介绍 Z 模型财务风险预警模型，为后续的财务预警系统的建立打下理论基础；其次，在介绍 A 企 业财务状况的基础上，重点分析案例 A 企业目前财务预警的现状，并指出该企业目前所实 施的财务风险预警方法存在的问题。接下来，针对 A 企业财务预警存在的问题，提出构建 具体的财务风险预警系统，即以 Z 模型为基础的定量财务风险预警模式，并根据房地产企 业的特点，对 Z 模型的应用提出改进的建议；同时，引入非财务指标的定性财务风险预警 方法作为补充，全面完善企业的财务风险预警系统。最后，基于该企业的隐性风险源分析 财务风险预警系统构建时应注意的问题，从而全面完善企业的财务风险预警系统，提高预 警系统的实用性。 关键词，房地产企业；财务风险预警；Z 模型；非财务指标浙江理工大学硕士专业学位论文 II Abstract As the key pillar industry of national economic development, the real estate are in the stage of vigorous development. However, the development of debt financing and the long cycle of construction of real estate in China determine the potential risk of the industry. With the fierce market competition in recent years and the government regulation of the real estate market, the financial risks of real estate enterprises are more prominent. Therefore, for real estate enterprises, it is of practical significance to establish a system of financial warning system to predict and prevent risks in advance. Effective financial early warning system can timely capture the enterprise daily management for the enterprise in the process of latent risk points, predict financial risk in advance and the direction of the trend of the financial risk into reality before the crisis will predict the results passed to the enterprise's management, provide the basis for its next decision. In this paper, based on financial risk early warning theory, the real estate A state-owned enterprises in Wenzhou as the object of case analysis, based on the analysis of the present situation of financial risk early warning, and points out that the current implementation of the financial risk early warning of merit and existing problem. Next, according to A enterprise specific financial risk early warning system is put forward, namely on the basis of Z model of short-term financial risk early warning model and the introduction of non-financial indicators of long-term financial risk early warning model. Finally, based on the hidden risk source and transformation of the enterprise development plan analysis financial risk early warning system for problems that should be paid attention to when building, so as to comprehensively improve the enterprise's financial risk early warning system, improve the practicality of early warning system. Key Words: State-Owned Real Estate Enterprises; Financial Risk Warning; Z Model; Non-Financial Index浙江理工大学硕士专业学位论文 III 目 录 摘要............................................................................................................................................... I Abstract .........................................................................................................................................II 目 录............................................................................................................................................III 1 绪 论........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景及意义.................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 选题背景 ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 选题意义 ................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 研究对象的界定.................................................................................................................. 3 1.2.1 研究对象的定义 ....................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 研究对象的实施程序 ............................................................................................... 3 1.3 研究内容.............................................................................................................................. 4 1.4 研究方法.............................................................................................................................. 4 2 理论分析..................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 企业财务风险预警的概念.................................................................................................. 6 2.2 经济预警理论...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 财务风险预警的定性研究 ....................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 财务风险预警的定量研究 ..................................................................................... 10 2.3 Z 模型预警理论 ................................................................................................................. 12 2.3.1 上市公司财务预警模型 ......................................................................................... 12 2.3.2 非上市公司财务预警模型 ..................................................................................... 13 2.3.3 跨行业财务预警模型 ............................................................................................. 14 3 房地产 A 企业财务风险预警现状及问题.............................................................................. 15 3.1 A 企业的总体概况 ............................................................................................................. 15 3.2 A 企业财务风险预警管理现状 ......................................................................................... 18 3.3 A 企业财务风险预警的评价 ............................................................................................. 19 3.3.1 A 企业财务风险预警的可取之处........................................................................... 19 3.3.2 A 企业财务风险预警存在的问题........................................................................... 20 4 基于 Z 模型房地产 A 企业财务风险预警系统的构建 ......................................................... 23 4.1 建立财务风险预警系统的可行性.................................................................................... 23 4.2 建立财务风险预警系统遵循的原则................................................................................ 24 4.3 以 Z 模型为基础的财务指标风险预警直接应用 ........................................................... 25 4.3.1 Z 模型的运用 ........................................................................................................... 26 4.3.2 A 房地产企业的特点............................................................................................... 27 4.3.3 Z 模型的更大范围应用 ........................................................................................... 31浙江理工大学硕士专业学位论文 IV 4.4 对 Z 模型的改进 .........................................................................................................