摘 要 控制城市房价波动在合理的区间，是坚决守住不发生区域性、系 统性金融风险底线的关键，同时也是我国政府在经济领域长期面临的 重大挑战。在我国房地产业已处于价格既不能涨更不能跌，既要去库 存又要拉投资的困境下，关键问题不再是证明泡沫是否存在或多大， 而是如何防止房价异常波动，因此，准确识别并有效控制房价的异常 波动显得尤为关键。然而，现有文献结构中，驱动城市房价出现异常 波动的研究视角鲜有涉及，类似研究也大多采用影响因素合成指标体 系，存在一定的主观性与片面性。 基于以上现实需求与理论背景，本文首先对房价异常波动进行了 概念界定，阐明房价异常波动与价格波动、房价泡沫之间的区别。随 后，在广泛阅读文献的基础上，将识别房价异常波动的方法归纳为峰 谷检测三角法、动态均线偏移法与递归 HP 滤波法。同时基于我国 35 个大中城市 2005 年至 2017 年共计 53 个季度的新建住宅价格与二手 住宅价格的定基比指数，识别并分析房价异常波动的整体特征、个体 特征与空间特征，最后利用非参数检验与多元 Logit 模型探究了影响 房价异常波动的关键因素。 研究发现：（1）我国房价异常上涨时期主要集中于 2009 年、2013 年与 2016 年，异常下跌时期主要集中于 2008 年、2011 年与 2014 年， 且两者之间存在紧密联系；（2）谱聚类结果显示房价波动会从第一类 城市向第三类城市传递且具有逐级削弱效应；（3）信贷增长率、居民 收入与商品住宅销售面积的增加会提高房价高峰发生的概率，房地产 投资额与宅地供应面积的增加是导致房价低谷概率提高的关键因素。 关键词：房地产价格，异常波动，影响因素，KW 检验，MNL 模型 论文类型：应用/专题研究II IDENTIFICATION OF ABNORMAL FLUCTUATION IN URBAN HOUSING PRICES AND THE INFLUENCING FACTORS ABSTRACT Controlling house price fluctuations in a reasonable range is necessary to defend the bottom line of regional and systemic financial risks, and it is also a major challenge for the Chinese government in the economic field. China's real estate industry has reached a critical period for maintaining price stability. The key concern is no longer proving whether a bubble exists or how large the bubble is, but rather how to prevent abnormal fluctuations in house prices. Therefore, it is particularly important to accurately identify abnormal fluctuations in house prices and to effectively control them. However, little research has examined what drives abnormal fluctuations in urban housing prices. Studies that have done so have primarily employed synthetic index systems of influencing factors, which are subjective and one-sided. Based on the above realistic needs and theoretical background, this paper defines the abnormal fluctuations in housing prices, and clarifies the difference between abnormal price fluctuations, price fluctuations, and housing price bubbles. Subsequently, on the basis of extensive reading of the literature, the method of identifying abnormal fluctuations in house prices is summarized as peak-valley detection trigonometry, dynamic mean-line migration method and recursive HP filtering method. At the same time, based on the 35 large- and medium-sized cities' quarterly data from 2005 to 2017, this study analyzes the overall, individual, and spatial characteristics of abnormal housing price fluctuations in new residential buildings and second-hand residential. Finally, the nonparametric test and MNL model are employed to analyze the influencing factors. The findings are as follows: (1) The abnormal rise in urban housing prices was mainly concentrated in 2009, 2013, and 2016; the period of abnormal decline was concentrated in 2008, 2011, and 2014, and there was a close relationship between these periods. (2) The results of spectral clustering revealed that house price fluctuations between cities are transmitted from the first category to the third category and have a step-by-step weakening effect. (3) Increases in credit growth rate, household income,III and commercial residential sales area increase the probability of a peak in housing prices; by contrast, increases in real estate investment and supply of homesteads are the key factors leading to an increased probability of falling house prices. KEY WORDS: Real Estate Price; Abnormal Fluctuations; Influencing Factors; KW Test; MNL Model YPE OF DISSERTATION / THESIS: Application Research浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 城市房地产价格异常波动的识别及其影响因素研究 IV 目 录 1 绪论.......................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ............................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景..............................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义..............................................................................................3 1.2 研究内容与框架结构 ....................................................................................4 1.2.1 研究内容..............................................................................................4 1.2.2 框架结构..............................................................................................5 1.3 主要创新点 .....................................................................................................6 2 基本理论与文献综述 ..........................................................................8 2.1 价格异常波动的一般定义 ............................................................................8 2.2 房价异常波动的研究现状 ............................................................................8 2.2.1 国外研究现状..................................................................................................8 2.2.2 国内研究现状................................................................................................10 2.3 房价波动关键影响因素 .............................................................................. 11 3 基于峰谷检测三角法的我国主要城市房价异常波动识别............16 3.1 数据来源与预处理 ......................................................................................16 3.2 峰谷检测三角法简介 ..................................................................................17 3.2.1 相关理论基础....................................................................................17 3.2.2 识别具体步骤....................................................................................18 3.3 新建住宅价格异常波动识别 .......................................................................19 3.3.1 整体波动特征....................................................................................19 3.3.2 城市波动特征....................................................................................21 3.3.3 空间扩散特征....................................................................................23 3.4 二手住宅价格异常波动识别 ......................................................................24 3.4.1 整体波动特征....................................................................................24 3.4.2 城市波动特征....................................................................................27 3.4.3 空间扩散特征....................................................................................28 4 基于动态均线偏移法的我国主要城市房价异常波动识别............30 4.1 动态均线偏移法简介 ..................................................................................30 4.1.1 相关理论基础....................................................................................30 4.1.2 识别具体步骤....................................................................................31浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 城市房地产价格异常波动的识别及其影响因素研究 V 4.2 新建住宅价格异常波动识别 ......................................................................31 4.2.1 整体波动特征....................................................................................31 4.2.2 城市波动特征....................................................................................34 4.2.3 空间扩散特征....................................................................................34 4.3 二手住宅价格异常波动识别 ......................................................................35 4.3.1 整体