国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新发布的《世界经济展望报告》中预计全球经济发 展的总体趋势是扩张减弱，中国社科院在《经济蓝皮书》中也预计明年中国 GDP 潜在 增长率将小幅下滑。由此可见当前经济增长动能有所减弱，企业在此大环境下将面临更 大的财务风险，故财务风险预警工作就显得愈发重要起来。房地产行业在我国经济发展 中占据着关键地位，而现金流的健康状况对该行业的重要性不言而喻。 基于以上背景，本文从现金流视角出发，为我国房地产企业构建财务风险预警模型。 首先选取 2002-2017 年沪深两市 A 股房地产行业上市公司为研究样本，建立基于现金流 量视角的指标体系，并运用 Logistic 回归构建财务风险预警模型。经检验，该模型对危 机企业的预测准确率高达 96.8%，总体正确预测率为 87.1%，且预警效果优于经典 Z 值 模型，同时发现现金流偿债能力指标的预警效果非常显著；接着本文选择房地产行业中 的龙头企业——恒大集团作为实证检验对象，在对其财务风险预警管理现状进行分析的 基础上，利用其 2009-2017 年的财务数据进行检验，结果显示本文的财务风险预警模型 在恒大的应用效果非常理想，进一步证明了模型的有效性；最后，针对恒大集团的财务 风险预警建设，从构建完整财务风险预警体系的角度，提出了相应的对策建议。 关键词： 房地产企业； 财务风险预警；现金流； Logistic 回归II Abstract In the latest World Economic Outlook Report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the overall trend of global economic development is weakening expansion. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also predicted that the potential growth rate of China’s GDP will decline slightly next year in the Economic Blue Book. This shows that the current economic growth momentum has weakened. Enterprises will face greater financial risks in this environment. Therefore, financial risk warning work is becoming more and more important. The real estate industry occupies a key position in China's economic development, and then the importance of the health of cash flow to the industry is self-evident. Based on the above background, the thesis constructs a financial risk early warning model for real estate enterprises in China from the perspective of cash flow. Firstly, the listed companies of A-share real estate industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2002 to 2017 were selected as research samples, and an index system based on cash flow perspective was established. Logistic regression was used to construct a financial risk early warning model. After testing, the prediction accuracy of the model for crisis enterprises is as high as 96.8%, the overall correct prediction rate is 87.1%, and the early warning effect is better than the classic Z value model. At the same time, the early warning effect of the cash flow solvency indicator is very significant. Then this thesis chooses the leading enterprise in the real estate industry - Evergrande Group as the empirical test object. Based on the analysis of the current status of financial risk early warning management, using its financial data from 2009 to 2017, it is found that the application of the financial risk early warning model in Evergrande is very satisfactory, which further proves that the model is effective. Finally, in view of the financial risk early warning construction of Evergrande Group, corresponding countermeasures were put forward from the perspective of constructing a complete financial risk early warning system. Keywords: Real estate company; Financial risk early warning; Cash flow; LogisticIII regressionIV 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 第 1 章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义.......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究意义............................................................................................................ 2 1.2 国内外文献综述.......................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 国外文献综述.................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 国内文献综述.................................................................................................... 5 1.2.3 文献述评............................................................................................................ 8 1.3 研究内容...................................................................................................................... 9 1.4 研究方法与思路.......................................................................................................... 9 1.4.1 研究方法............................................................................................................ 9 1.4.2 研究思路.......................................................................................................... 10 第 2 章 理论基础....................................................................................................................12 2.1 财务风险预警概述.................................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 财务风险预警内涵.......................................................................................... 12 2.1.2 财务风险预警功能.......................................................................................... 14 2.2 财务风险预警相关理论............................................................................................ 15 2.2.1 企业预警理论.................................................................................................. 15 2.2.2 经济周期波动理论.......................................................................................... 15 2.2.3 内部控制理论.................................................................................................. 16 2.2.4 风险价值理论.................................................................................................. 16 2.2.5 理论基础述评.................................................................................................. 17 2.3 现金流视角下研究财务风险预警的必要性与科学性............................................ 17 2.3.1 现金流视角下研究财务风险预警的必要性.................................................. 17 2.3.2 现金流视角下研究财务风险预警的科学性.................................................. 18 第 3 章 房地产企业现金流财务风险预警模型的构建........................................................20 3.1 样本及指标选择........................................................................................................ 20 3.1.1 样本选择.......................................................................................................... 20 3.1.2 指标选择.......................................................................................................... 21 3.2 Logistic 模型构建....................................................................................................... 22V 3.2.1 Logistic 模型概述............................................................................................. 22 3.2.2 Logistic 模型结果............................................................................................. 23 3.3 模型效果检验............................................................................................................ 25 3.3.1 回代检验.......................................................................................................... 25 3.3.2 与经典 Z 值模型对比检验 ............................................................................. 26 第 4 章 财务风险预警模型在恒大集团的实证检验............................................................29 4.1 恒大集团概况............