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I
A 银行人才流失预警的实证研究
中文摘要
由于商业银行的服务和产品同质化的趋势日益明显，银行业之间的竞争最终将归
结成人才之争。金融行业已经放低了准入门槛，四大国有银行的地位也受到了极大的
影响，大量人才纷纷流向外资银行、新兴的股份制商业银行和城市商业银行。因此，
对人才流失的有效预警和预控，是提升国有控股商业银行核心竞争力的前提。本篇论
文将以人才的流失模型以及相关的预警管理理论作为研究的基础，通过分析 A 银行
人才流失的现状和原因，运用回归模型形成了一套预警指标体系，进而建立了具有实
际操作意义的人才流失预警机制，并针对 A 银行提出了相关预控措施，以帮助其从
根本上将人才流失所带来的风险、损失降到最低
关键词：国有控股商业银行；人才流失；预警与预控；实证研究
作 者：施雯君
指导教师：蒋 丽英文摘要 A 银行人才流失预警的实证研究
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II
Empirical research on early warning over
outflow of talents in A bank
Abstract
Since services and products provided by commercial banks tend to homogenize, the
competition among banks will finally develop into a fight for talents. Comprehensive
opening-up of the financial industry is gradually breaking up the monopoly of four major
state-holding commercials banks in China which are the pillars of China’s banking industry.
Many talents get themselves employed in foreign banks, emerging joint-stock commercial
banks and urban commercial banks. Therefore, effective early warning and pre-control
over the outflow of talents can help to improve the core competitiveness of state-holding
commercial banks. Based on models concerning outflow of talents and theories related to
early warning management, the thesis analyzes the current situation of the outflow of
talents in A bank and the reasons behind. With the application of regression model, the
thesis develops a set of early warning indicators system and builds an operable early
warning mechanism for the outflow of talents. The thesis also proposes pre-control
measures for A bank, hoping to fundamentally help the bank to decrease the risks and loss
brought by outflow of talents to the lowest.
Key words: state-holding commercial banks; outflow of talents; early warning and
pre-control; empirical research
Written by: Shi Wenjun
Supervised by：Jiang Li
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目 录
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1 绪论·1
1.1 研究背景.......1
1.2 研究的目的和意义...2
1.3 研究的方法、思路与框架...2
1.3.1 研究方法.........2
1.3.2 研究思路.........2
1.3.3 研究框架.........3
1.4 国内外研究综述和简要评析...........4
1.4.1 人才流失问题的研究现状.....4
1.4.2 人才流失预警问题研究现状.6
2 人才流失及其预警的相关概念及理论基础·9
2.1 基本理论概念...........9
2.1.1 人才的概念.....9
2.1.2 商业银行人才的界定.9
2.1.3 人才流失的内涵及种类.......10
2.1.4 人才流失预警........... 11
2.2 研究的有关理论..... 11
2.2.1 人才流失模型的探究.......... 11
2.2.2 预警管理理论..........16
3 A 银行人才流失的现状、危害·· 18
3.1 A 银行人才流失的现状.....18
3.1.1A 银行人才流失的概况........18
3.1.2 A 银行人才流失的倾向分析...........20
3.2 A 银行人才流失的危害.....20
3.2.1 资金成本的剧增.......21
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3.2.2 工作绩效的下降.......21
3.2.3 无形资产的流失.......21
3.2.4 凝聚力下降..22
4 A 银行人才流失原因分析·· 23
4.1 A 银行人才流失的外部因素.........23
4.2 A 银行人才流失的内部因素.........24
4.3 A 银行人才流失的个人因素.........26
5 A 银行人才流失的预警机制建设·· 29
5.1 预警管理的指导原则与运作流程.29
5.1.1 人才流失预警的必要性.......29
5.1.2 预警管理的指导原则..........30
5.1.3 预警管理运作流程...30
5.2 A 银行人才流失预警指标体系的建立.....32
5.2.1 预警指标选择的准则...........33
5.2.2 A 银行预警指标体系的建立...........34
5.2.3A 银行预警等级的确立........36
5.3 预警管理工作的具体内容.36
5.3.1 组织和人员的准备工作.......36
5.3.2 日常监测和管理.......37
5.3.3 识别分析......38
5.3.4 预警发出......38
5.3.5 预警对策......38
5.3.6 反馈修正......
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