摘要
随着网络金融的飞速发展，电子货币的出现，极大的推动了支付货币电子化
的发展，改变了传统的支付方式和消费习惯，在带来便利的同时也对传统的金融
支付方式带来了强烈的冲击和挑战。现行的货币研究理论表明，货币供给由基础
货币和货币乘数两个重要因素组成：保持基础货币固定不变时，货币供给会随着
货币乘数的改变而随之改变。通常来讲，对于基础货币这个要素中央银行是可控
的，但是对于货币乘数，中央银行不能完全对其进行控制。
本文结合理论与实证研究来分析当前电子货币的发展对我国货币乘数的影
响。理论研究部分，将电子货币作为一个影响我国货币乘数变化的重要因素，引
入传统货币乘数模型，深入地研究了电子货币对我国货币乘数的四个决定因素的
影响，并从电子货币对现金和活期存款的替代效应着手分析，得出电子货币对我
国狭义货币乘数和广义货币乘数具有放大效应的结论。实证研究部分，选取1990-
2015年国内货币乘数的相关数据，通过单位根检验、格兰杰因果、协整检验、多
元回归等实证方法，验证了电子货币对我国货币乘数的放大性影响，同时总结出
电子货币的发展增强了货币乘数的内生性，加大了中央银行控制货币供给的难度，
从而降低了货币政策的有效性以及电子货币对现金的替代作用十分明显等结论，
并基于此结论向中央银行提出了相关政策建议：对电子货币采用严格的监管措施，
比如缴纳准备金，减小电子货币的流动性风险；以M
2
作为货币供应量的主要指
标；保证电子货币发行主体的资产安全问题，对电子货币发行机构的风险投资活
动及主营业务范围做出严格限制；加大在相关设施方面的投入力度，为电子货币
这类电子数据支付形式提供支持和保障；加强与国外中央银行的监管合作等。
关键词：电子货币，货币乘数，货币供给III
ABSTRACT
With the rapid development of network finance, the emergence of electronic
money, greatly promoted the development of electronic currency payment, it changes
the traditional payment and consumption habits, and brings convenience to the
traditional financial payment, also brings a strong impact and challenges for it. The
current theory of monetary research shows that the money supply is composed of two
important factors: the base currency and the monetary multiplier. When the base
currency is fixed, the money supply will change with the variation of the money
multiplier. Generally speaking, the central bank can control the basic currency, but for
the money multiplier, the central bank can’t control it completely.
In this paper, we use the method of theoretical research and empirical research to
analyze the impact of the current development of electronic currency on China&39;s
monetary multiplier. In the theoretical research section, regard electronic money as an
important factor which can affect the change of China&39;s monetary multiplier, and
introduce it into the traditional money multiplier model, the influence of electronic
money on the four determinants of China&39;s monetary multiplier is deeply studied, the
conclusion is drawn that the electronic money has amplification effect on the narrow
money multiplier and the broad money multiplier in China. In the process of empirical
analysis, related data from 1990-2015 years of domestic monetary multiplier, through
empirical unit root test, co integration test and causality, Grainger multiple regression
method, verified electronic money on monetary multiplier effect, and summarizes the
development of electronic money enhances the endogenous nature of money multiplier,
make the central bank control money supply difficultly, thereby reducing the
substitution effect of the effectiveness of monetary policy and electronic money replace
cash obvious, based on the conclusion, give the following recommendations to the
central bank: take the strict regulatory measures of electronic money, such as pay the
reserve, liquidity risk reduction of electronic money; using the M
2
as the main index;
asset security guarantee for the electronic money issuer; increase in related
infrastructure investment, such as electronic money payment to provide support and
protection to it; strengthen the supervision cooperation with foreign central banks etc..
KEY WORDS: Electronic Money, Monetary Multiplier, Money Supply目录
中文摘要…………………………………………………………..……………Ⅰ
ABSTRACT………………………………………………………..………………Ⅲ
第一章 绪论........................................................................... 1
1.1 研究背景 ........................................................................ 1
1.2 研究目的和意义..........................................................................................2
1.3 研究的创新点..............................................................................................4
1.4 国内外研究现状..........................................................................................4
1.4.1 国外研究现状......................................................................................4
1.4.2 国内研究现状......................................................................................5
第二章 电子货币概念界定与发展趋势分析 ......................................................9
2.1 电子货币的概念界定..................................................................................9
2.1.1 货币形态的演变和特征以及分类......................................................9
2.1.2 本文所研究的电子货币定义界定....................................................12
2.2 电子货币的发展趋势分析........................................................................12
第三章 电子货币对货币乘数影响理论分析 ....................................................19
3.1 电子货币的需求........................................................................................19
3.1.1 电子货币的市场接受过程分析........................................................19
3.1.2 基于商家和消费者的电子货币支付博弈模型................................20
3.2 我国货币乘数的理论模型........................................................................26
3.3 电子货币对货币乘数的影响分析............................................................19
3.3.1 电子货币作用于通货存款比率对货币乘数产生的影响................27
3.3.2 电子货币作用于总准备金比率对货币乘数产生的影响................30
3.3.3 电子货币作用于定期存款比率对货币乘数产生的影响................31
3.4 电子货币的现金存款替代效应对货币乘数的影响................................33
3.5 小结............................................................................................................34
第四章 实证模型变量选择及数据说明.............................................................35
4.1 货币层次....................................................................................................35
4.2 电子货币层次............................................................................................35
4.3 指标和模型说明........................................................................................364.3.1 数据选择与分析................................................................................36
4.3.2 模型说明............................................................................................39
第五章 电子货币对货币乘数影响的实证分析 ................................................41
5.1 序列平稳性检验........................................................................................41
5.2 协整关系检验............................................................................................42
5.3 格兰杰因果关系检验................................................................................43
5.4 变量之间的长期均衡关系及实证结果分析............................................44
第六章 结论及政策建议.....................................................................................45
参考文献...............................................................................................................47
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