近年来,随着金融危机影响的深化,全球贸易发展增速逐渐放缓,我国航运

业正面临着前所未有的困境。

中国远洋与中海集运作为中国最具有代表性的两家航运企业,分别主要从事

干散货运输与集装箱班轮运输。本文将从宏观环境、行业层面、财务政策逐渐递

进地对两家公司进行解析,重点通过三维分析、各项财务指标对比、ROE分解

和战略矩阵分析等,对两家企业的运营政策进行评价并对企业未来发展提出切实

可行的建议。

从2008年初开始,金融海啸在全世界范围内大规模爆发,加上随之引爆的

欧债危机,造成世界经济严重下滑,全球贸易锐减,给航运业带来的冲击可谓是

百年一遇,大批船舶无货可运,港口争相晒港,船东入不敷出。与此同时,航运

企业对于上下游相关产业的议价能力被逐渐削弱,利润被进一步摊薄。

在企业内部,从盈利能力来看,中国远洋要强于中海集运;而资产使用效率

方面,中海集运则要略高一筹;过高的负债使得中国远洋承担了巨大的财务风险,

而中海集运则始终保持在适度负债的范围以内;由于连年亏损,两家企业的现金

创造能力都极弱,且都属于损值型企业,在研究期间内,中国远洋的利润质量优

于中海集运,但放眼未来,中海集运的创现能力将会比中国远洋更具竞争力;尽

管亏损,但两家企业仍旧从航运的上下游企业那边OPM 了大量现金;从ROE

分解来看,虽然中国远洋被誉为亏损王,但研究期间的ROE平均值仍旧高于中

海集运,由于2012年中海集运已经止损盈利而中国远洋仍旧大幅度亏损,因此

中海集运相较于中国远洋的ROE在未来有更大的提升空间与较小的风险。

尽管航运市场仍旧低迷,但中海集运却让人对航运看到了一丝曙光,而中国

远洋的持续亏损是否会让这家中国最大的航运企业退市还是能在2013年一举扭

亏为盈,这仍值得大家期待。但可以肯定的是,当危机到来之时,企业必须为了

生存而制定相应的对策,为寒冬之后的复兴而储存足够的资本。中国远洋就像一

头沉睡的大象,而中海集运就像一匹开始奔跑的骏马,未来谁能称霸航运市场仍

未可知。

关键词:中国远洋、中海集运、经济状况、财务指标、战略矩阵

Abstract

In recent years, with deep influence of financial crisis, the global trading

development becomes slow down, shipping business in our country facing

unprecedented predicament.

Being the most representatives in China, China COSCO and China Shipping

Container Lines Company have their own business of bulk cargo transportation and

container liner transportation respectively. This article analyze the two companies

from macro-environment, industry field,financial policy step by step, mostly focus on

three-dimensional analysis, comparison of each financial index, ROE disassemble and

strategy matrix analysis, then make comments of the operation policy and feasible

suggestions for the future development of the two companies.

At the beginning of 2008,financial tsunami had worldwide outbreak, together

with the European debt crisis, which make the world economics severe slowdown,

global trading decline sharply. Meanwhile, shipping business is facing hundred year

impact, lots of vessels and ports are out of business, ship owners aren't meet their

ends. Shipping business had their bargain ability been weaken by related upstream

and downstream firms, the profits becomefurther dilution.

Inside the enterprise, the China COSCO's profitability is better thanChina

Shipping Container Lines Company Limited, when it comes to efficiency of assets,

China Shipping is better. High debt makes China COSCO undertake big financial

crisis, but China Shipping keep their debt ratio in a moderation range from beginning

to end. Unfortunately, with the loss year by year, the two companies have very bad

cash creation ability, both of them belong to loss value enterprise.During the research

period, China COSCO had their quality of profit better than China Shipping, but in

the future, China Shipping would be more competitiveness than China COSCO in

cash creation ability.Although these two companies are loss their value, they still

occupy money from related upstream and downstream companies. Even though China

COSCObeen rated as loss king, but its ROE average higher than China Shipping. But

in 2012, compared with China COSCO, China Shipping restarts to make profit, so

China Shipping will have bigger room for improve ROE and less risks.

Even though the shipping market still low, China Shipping makes people see

opportunities. It still worth our expectation to find out China COSCO will keep loss

and retreat from stock market or start making profits in 2013. When crisis coming,

enterprise have to make relevant policy for survival, and reserve enough capital for

the next spring. China COSCO just like a sleeping elephant, China Shipping like a

running horse, nobody can tell who will dominate shipping market in the future.

Keyword: China COSCO, China Shipping, Economic Condition, Financial

Index,Strategy Matrix.

第一章绪论

本章首先介绍论文的选题动机和意义,进而简要阐述论文的结构内容,并在

此基础上提出本文的研宄结论和启示建议。

一、论文的选题动机和意义

随着国际贸易的不断加强,中国的航运业也得到了空前的发展,作为我国经

济的命脉,航运在物流运输中发挥的作用越来越明显。首先,中国是世界上海运

需求总量、集装箱运载量、铁矿石进口量最大的国家,第二大原油进口国,海运

作为保障我国社会经济发展的战略通道具有特别重要的意义。其次,航运业的发

展水平和便利程度已成为影响“中国制造”在国际竞争中成本优势的重要因素,

成为我国参与国际分工,形成国际竞争优势的重要组成部分。不仅如此,商船船

队作为国家海军的后备力量,时,航

运业还有效地带动丁顆琉融等海洋经济和国民经济其他行业的

发展。

航运业拥有如此众多的光环和头衔,因此研宄航运业对于研究国民经济、国

际贸易、物流甚至一国政治都有着极为重要的意义。而中国远洋和中海集运作为

中国航运业中最具有代表性的佼俊者,他们的一举一动都牵动着每一个航运人的

心。通过对这两家企业透析可以帮助读者了解和分析航运业及其相关产业的发展,

无论是对宏观经济还是微观产业都会有更进一步的认识。同时,由于受到2008

年以来金融危机、欧债危机等的影响,国际贸易萧条导致全球航运萎缩,航运信

心指数下滑,当年航运的黄金时期已经一去不复返了。本文的分析将有助于读者

了解到航运业是否仍旧受投资者青睐、航运业是否仍旧有长远的发展、是否仍值

得航运院校毕业生孜孜不倦地抱以热情,这就是本文最大的意义所在了。

作者本人的本科阶段在中国三大航运院校之一的集美大学航海学院完成,本

科毕业在航运企业工作数年后又返回厦门大学研修工商管理,非常希望能将自己

的实践经验和理论知识相结合,来对航运业的发展进行一个评价和预测,这不仅