摘 要
近年来，中国频繁出台对房地产的调控政策，但是这些调控政策的主要对
象是住宅，对产业地产项目多表现出鼓励态度，因此很多地产开发公司转型投
资产业地产。但是产业性地产具有其自身的发展规律与特点，投资风险也非常
高。相较于我国传统住宅建筑项目，产业地产的开发建设、培育及发展皆需要
一个漫长的时间与周期，开发也会比较困难，并且在进行区域性产业开发的过
程中经常会遇到融资、开发、招商、产业培育、服务等一系列因素的影响，使
项目资金回收困难，项目利润降低，所以须特别重视产业地产的风险，搭建科
学可行的产业地产风险的管控体系。
本论文根据产业地产项目风险管理相关的理论，采用文献研究法初步形成
可能影响Ａ公司 H项目的所有风险因素清单明细，并利用德尔菲法来对此初步
风险清单进行优化删减和编辑修正，确定了影响 H项目的最终风险清单。此外，
本论文利用问卷调查法获得了风险发生概率和风险影响程度的基础数据，并通
过主成分分析法进行数据分析后确定了影响Ａ公司产业地产项目的五大主要风
险因子，并构建了Ａ公司产业地产Ｈ项目风险评价体系。针对风险评价体系中
的各项风险因素逐一给出风险控制方案，为该行业风险管理方案制定提供相应
的依据。
关键词：产业地产，风险管理，德尔菲法，主成分分析法
I
ABSTRACT
In recent years, China has frequently launched real estate regulation and control
policies, which are mainly aimedat residential properties, and have shown an
encouraging attitude towards industrial real estate projects,so many real estate
development enterprises have transformed to invest in industrial real estate. However,
industrial real estate has its own development rules and characteristics. Compared to
residential projects, the cultivation and development of industrial real estate requires
a longer period and is more difficult to develop. Moreover, the process of industrial
development involves many factors such as development, financing, investment,
services and industrial cultivation, which may lead to difficulties in recovering the
huge amount of capital invested in the project, so it is necessary to pay attention to the
risks of industrial real estate and establish a reliable risk control system for industrial
real estate projects.
According to the risk management theory of industrial real estate projects, this
thesis used the literature research method to form a preliminary risk list of all risk
factors that may affect Company A's Project H. The Delphi method was used to
optimize and delete the initial list of risks and determine the final list of risks affecting
Project H. In addition, this thesis also used a questionnaire survey method to obtain
basics data on the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of risk impact and
identified five major risk factors affecting Company A's industrial real estate project
through principal component analysis. Finally, this thesis used the actual case project
to construct a risk evaluation index system for Company A's industrial real estate H
project, and after a scientific and reasonable classification of the risk evaluation results,
risk prevention strategies and risk management strategies were given for each risk
factor of the project one by one, which provided a certain basis for the formulation of
risk management strategies in this industry.
KEY WORDS:IndustrialReal Estate,Riskmanagement, Delphimethod,
Principal component analysis method
III
目录
摘要................ I
ABSTRACT..................III
目录...............V
第 1章绪论.............1
1.1研究背景..................1
1.2研究意义..................2
1.2.1理论意义..............2
1.2.2实践意义..............2
1.3研究内容..................3
1.4研究方法和技术路线............3
1.4.1研究方法..............3
1.4.2技术路线图..........4
第 2章文献综述及理论基础.............5
2.1文献综述..................5
2.1.1国外研究现状.............5
2.1.2国内研究现状.............6
2.2产业地产基本理论................7
2.2.1产业地产基本概念............7
2.2.2产业地产分类.............8
2.2.3产业地产发展方向............9
2.3产业地产项目风险概述.............11
2.3.1产业地产项目风险的内涵与特征.......11
2.3.2产业地产项目风险的来源............11
2.3.3产业地产项目风险的分类............12
2.4产业地产项目风险管理的内容和原则..........13
2.4.1风险管理的内容...............13
2.4.2产业地产项目风险管理的原则...........13
2.5本章小结................14
第 3章A公司产业地产 H项目风险识别...........15
3.1 A公司概况及 H项目概况 .........15
3.2风险因素的初步识别..........15
3.2.1风险识别方法...........15
V