A Dissertation Submitted to Guangdong University of Technology
for the Degree of Master
（Master of Business Administration）
Research on investment risk management and
control of A company old village renovation project
Candidate: Zhu Jiamin
Supervisor: Prof. Zhou Weiji
May 2022
School of Management
Guangdong University of Technology
Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China, 510520

摘要
摘要
由于旧村土地利用率低下，基础设施贫乏，生态恶化，生态环境恶化，不仅对整
个城镇的发展不利，而且对村庄本身的发展也有一定的不利作用。旧村的开发周期长、
不确定性大、不可逆性高、高风险，在一定程度上加大了旧村建设的投资风险。以科
学的方法进行风险控制，确保工程顺利进行是非常必要的。
文章以 A公司旧村改建工程的投资风险控制为研究对象，以中新村整体改建工程
为案例，运用文献资料、案例分析、定性与定量结合的方法分析 A公司旧村改建工程
的投资风险控制，探索 A公司旧村改造项目投资风险管控路径。首先，对 A公司旧村
改造项目投资风险管控现状进行调研，总结出 A公司旧村改造项目投资风险管控存在
的问题，并分析 A公司旧村改造项目投资风险管控问题形成的原因。然后，运用德尔
菲法、AHP和 FAHP法对 A公司旧村改建工程的投资危险因子进行了分析，构建 A公
司旧村改造项目投资风险评估体系，完成 A公司旧村改造项目投资风险评价，掌握 A
公司旧村改造项目投资风险水平。最后，结合 A公司旧村改造项目投资风险管控现状，
提出 A公司旧村改造项目投资风险管控对策。
通过 A公司旧村改造项目投资风险识别，主要投资风险在于内部管理、经济、技
术、社会、政策、自然环境险，整体等风险，属于“一般风险”范围。其中，内部管
理风险、经济风险以及技术风险处于较高风险状态，社会风险处于一般风险水平。为
此，提出 A公司旧村改造项目内部管理风险、经济风险、技术风险以及社会风险控制
措施，为 A公司旧村改造项目投资风险管控提供切实可行的保障。
关键词：旧村改造；投资决策；风险识别；风险评价；风险管控
I

ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT
Due to the low land utilization rate, poor infrastructure, ecological deterioration and
deterioration of ecological environment in old villages, it is not only unfavorable for the
development of the whole town, but also has a certain adverse effect on the development of
the village itself. The development cycle of old villages is long, with great uncertainty, high
irreversibility and high risks, which increases the investment risk of old village construction
to a certain extent. It is very necessary to carry out risk control in a scientific way to ensure
the smooth progress of the project.
This thesis takes the investment risk control of the old village reconstruction project of
Company A as the research object, and takes the overall reconstruction project of Zhongxin
Village as a case, using literature, case analysis, qualitative and quantitative methods to
analyze the investment risk control of the old village reconstruction project of Company A.
Explore the investment risk management and control path of A company old village
renovation project. First, investigate the current situation of investment risk management and
control of A company old village renovation project, summarize the problems in investment
risk management and control of A company old village renovation project, and analyze the
reasons for the formation of investment risk management and control problems in A
company old village renovation project. Then, using the Delphi method, AHP and FAHP
method to analyze the investment risk factors of the old village reconstruction project of
Company A, build the investment risk assessment system of the old village reconstruction
project of Company A, complete the investment risk assessment of the old village
reconstruction project of Company A, master the The investment risk level of A company old
village renovation project. Finally, combined with the current situation of investment risk
management and control of A company old village renovation project, it proposes investment
risk management and control measures for A company old village renovation project.
Through the identification of investment risks in the old village renovation project of
Company A, the main investment risks are internal management, economic, technological,
II
。。。以下略