城市轨道交通的加速发展逐步缓解了大城市的交通拥挤问题，同时城市轨道交通 快速便捷的特点也为居民出行带来了显著的便利性。由于交通条件的改善，城市轨道 交通往往能带来大量的客流，从而带动轨道交通周边的经济发展，同时也带来土地价 格的增值。土地价格水平直接影响城市的土地利用形态、布局与规模，因此定量化预 测城市轨道交通周边区域的土地增值，对于土地合理规划和土地供给调控有着重要意 义。可见，研究城市轨道交通对地价的影响是具有理论意义和实际意义的。 本文在查阅了大量相关文献和资料基础上，分析了现有研究方法的特点，提出了 改进的研究方法并选取了地价的相关影响因素，研究了城市轨道交通对地价的影响。 本文基于Rook权重矩阵存在“伪邻接”现象的局限性，利用比值阈值进行限制从而优 化Rook权重矩阵；结合选择的相关影响因素，建立改进的半对数模型。 最后，本文选择天津地铁1号线部分区域作为研究区域进行实证研究，证明了优 化的Rook权重矩阵能够更准确的表达邻接性，改进的半对数模型模拟精度更高；模拟 结果证明利用房价变化推算地价变化是可行的；城市轨道交通已逐渐取代公交车成为 城市重要的公共交通方式；城市轨道交通站点距离对地价是正向影响，在其他因素不 变的情况下，每靠近城市轨道交通站点1米，地价上涨1.46元。 关键词：城市轨道交通；地价；半对数模型；Rook权重矩阵 III Abstract Withtheacceleratingdevelopmentofurbanrailtransit,trafficcongestionwillbe graduallyrelievedinbigcities.Atthesametime,urbanrailtransithasahighdegreeof accessibility.Urbanrailtransitcansignificantlyimprovetheconvenienceofresidentstravel. Urbanrailtransitcanbringalargenumberofpassengerflow,thusleadingtothe developmentofthesurroundinglandeconomy.Landpricehasadirectimpactontheform, layoutandscaleofurbanlandusing.Therefore,forgovernmentdepartments,quantitative predictionoflandvalue-addedaroundurbanrailtransitisofgreatsignificancetorational landplanning,landsupplyregulationandcontrol.Anditisconducivetothebenigncircle ofgovernment'slandpriceregulationandnationaleconomy.Therefore,thestudyofthe impactofurbanrailtransitonlandpriceisoftheoreticalandpracticalsignificance. Onthebasisofconsultingalargenumberofrelevantliteratureanddata,thispaper analyzesthecharacteristicsofexistingresearchmethodsandselectstherelevantfactorsof landpricetostudytheimpactofurbanrailtransitonlandprice.Theratiothresholdisused tooptimizeRookweightmatrixbasedontheLimitationof Pseudo-adjacency inRook WeightMatrix.Theimprovedsemi-logmodelisbuiltwithrelatedfactors. Finally,thispaperchoosessomepartsofTianjinMetroLine1astheresearchareato conductanempiricalstudy.TheresultsshowthattheoptimizedRookweightmatrixcan moreaccuratelyexpresstheadjacency,andtheimprovedsemi-logmodelhashigher simulationaccuracy.Thesimulationresultsprovethatitisfeasibletocalculatelandprice changebyusingthechangeofhouseprice.Urbanrailtransithasgraduallyreplacedbusas animportantmodeofpublictransportincities.Thedistancebetweenurbanrailtransit stationsandblockhasapositiveimpactonlandprice.Withotherfactorsunchanged,the landpriceincreasesby1.46yuanforeverymetreclosetourbanrailtransitstations. Keywords:Urbanrailtransit;Landprice;Semi-logmodel;Rookweightmatrix V 目录 摘要..................................................................................................................................I Abstract.................................................................................................................................III 第一章绪论....................................................................................................................-1- 1.1研究背景.....................................................................................................................-1- 1.2研究目的及意义.........................................................................................................-1- 1.3研究内容.....................................................................................................................-2- 1.3.1论文研究内容......................................................................................................-2- 1.3.2预期目标和成果..................................................................................................-3- 1.4研究方法及技术路线.................................................................................................-3- 1.4.1研究方法..............................................................................................................-3- 1.4.2技术路线..............................................................................................................-3- 1.5论文创新点.................................................................................................................-4- 第二章相关理论概述及文献综述................................................................................-5- 2.1城市轨道交通对土地价值影响理论.........................................................................-5- 2.1.1区位理论..............................................................................................................-5- 2.1.2地租理论..............................................................................................................-6- 2.2空间统计相关理论.....................................................................................................-6- 2.2.1空间统计量..........................................................................................................-6- 2.2.2空间权重矩阵......................................................................................................-8- 2.3文献综述.....................................................................................................................-8- 2.3.1城市轨道交通对地价的影响研究现状..............................................................-8- 2.3.2空间回归研究现状............................................................................................-11- 2.4本章小结...................................................................................................................-12- 第三章基于优化的Rook权重矩阵改进半对数模型................................................-13- 3.1空间权重矩阵的优化...............................................................................................-13- 3.1.1空间权重矩阵的选择........................................................................................-13- 3.1.2Rook权重矩阵的局限性....................................................................................-13- 3.1.3Rook权重矩阵的优化........................................................................................-13- 3.2基于优化的Rook权重矩阵的半对数模型.............................................................-14- 3.2.1模型框架............................................................................................................-14- VI 3.2.2阈值确定及模型选择........................................................................................-14- 3.3模型实现流程...........................................................................................................-15- 3.4本章小结...................................................................................................................-17- 第四章研究区域的确定及因素选取..........................................................................-19- 4.1研究区域的确定.......................................................................................................-19- 4.1.1研究区域概况....................................................................................................-19- 4.1.2研究区域的初步选取........................................................................................-19- 4.1.3研究区域的最终确定........................................................................................-20- 4.2选取影响因素...........................................................................................................-22- 4.2.1指标选取............................................................................................................-22- 4.2.2指标说明............................................................................................................-23- 4.3本章小结..............