在我国经济进入增速放缓、动力换档的大背景下，政府财政增长乏力， 单靠传统财政资金已难以满足基础设建设和运营等公共服务需求。PPP模 式成为破解公共服务领域建设运营难题的可行方案之一。从2013年起， 财政部开始大力推行PPP模式，2014年-2020年7月，财政部综合信息平 台管理库累计入库9668个，资金规模达15万亿。但近两年来，为规范政 府债务管理，国家加强了PPP项目风险管控，进一步规范PPP项目入库监 管，“PPP热”已呈现逐渐降温趋势。从项目入库数量上看，2016年新增 入库3449个，2017新增入库4485个。2018年，随着财政部“54号文”“92 号文”等一系列从严监管新规的出台，这种瓶颈效应愈加明显。2018年PPP 项目新增入库847个，2019年新增入库705个。相比于2016-2017年， 2018-2019年PPP项目入库数量已大幅下降，PPP模式的推广运用进入了瓶 颈期。导致这种结果的很大一部分原因是PPP项目评价方法还不够科学。 目前，PPP项目评价方法是财政部推荐的物有所值（VFM）评价法。 基于提升实践应用效果的目的，结合多年的工作实践和思考，本文在PPP 项目物有所值（VFM）评价法的研究上进一步延伸，针对物有所值（VFM） 评价法专家权重大、评价维度窄、计算方法不够实用等不足之处提出新的 项目评价方法——基于AHP-密切值的项目综合效益评价法。该方法从政府 视角出发，以项目综合效益作为切入点，不仅仅考察项目的成本和收益， 而是从项目对社会产生的综合效益这个评价维度来评估项目的价值。 基于PPP项目的特性，本文以城市轨道交通PPP项目为实例。首先， 采用因素分解法，深入研究项目综合效益的评价指标体系；然后，综合运 用层次分析法（AHP）-密切值法对PPP项目各项评价指标进行赋值分析； 其次，通过在城市轨道交通PPP项目影响因素和综合效益评分之间建立多 元线性回归模型，并以6个样本项目数据对模型的参数进行估值；最后， 运用模型预测项目的综合效益，获得可量化且符合经验判断的预测成果， II 佐证该方法的可行性和适用性。 研究结果显示，相比于传统的物有所值（VFM）评价法，本文所提出 的评价方法更加客观、全面、实用。希望此法可以成为物有所值（VFM） 评价法的有力补充，能够为政府判断PPP项目综合效益价值提供另一个判 断维度。 关键词：PPP物有所值城市轨道交通 III STUDYONTHECOMPREHENSIVEBENEFIT OFPPPPROJECTOFURBANRAILTRANSIT THATBASEDONAHP-CLOSEVALUE METHOD ABSTRACT InthecontextofChina'seconomicslowdown,thegovernment'sfiscal growthisweak,anditisdifficulttomeetthedemandforpublicservicessuchas infrastructureconstructionandoperationwithtraditionalfiscalfundsalone.PPP modelhasbecomeoneofthefeasiblesolutionstosolvetheconstructionand operationproblemsinthepublicservicefield.From2013,theMinistryof FinancebegantovigorouslypromotethePPPmodel.From2014toJuly2020, 9,668managementwarehousesoftheComprehensiveInformationplatformof theMinistryofFinanceweredeposited,withacapitalscaleof15trillion yuan.However,inthepasttwoyears,inordertostandardizethemanagementof governmentdebt,thestatehasstrengthenedtheriskcontrolofPPPprojectsand furtherstandardizedthewarehousingsupervisionofPPPprojects,andthe"PPP fever"hasgraduallycooleddown.Intermsofthenumberofprojects,3,449new projectswereputintostoragein2016and4,485projectswereputintostorage in2017.In2018,withtheintroductionofaseriesofstrictnewregulationssuch astheMinistryofFinance's"54Document"and"92Document",thisbottleneck effecthasbecomemoreobvious.In2018,847PPPprojectswereputinto storage,and705projectswereputintostoragein2019paredwith 2016-2017,thenumberofPPPprojectsenteringthewarehousein2018-2019 hasdroppedsignificantly,andthepromotionandapplicationofPPPmodehas enteredabottleneckperiod.Alargepartofthereasonforthisresultisthatthe PPPprojectevaluationmethodisnotscientificenough. Atpresent,thePPPprojectevaluationmethodisthevalueformoney(VFM) evaluationmethodrecommendedbytheMinistryofFinance.Basedonthe purposeofimprovingthepracticalapplicationeffect,combinedwithyearsof workingpracticeandthinking,thispaperfurtherextendstheresearchonthePPP projectvalueformoney(VFM)evaluationmethod.Aimingatthedisadvantages ofVFM,suchasheavyexpertweight,narrowevaluationdimensionand IV unpracticalcalculationmethod,anewprojectevaluationmethod,the comprehensivebenefitevaluationmethodbasedonAHP-closevalue,was proposed.Thismethodstartsfromtheperspectiveofthegovernmentandtakes thecomprehensivebenefitoftheprojectastheentrypoint.Itnotonlyexamines thecostandbenefitoftheproject,butalsoevaluatesthevalueoftheproject fromtheevaluationdimensionofthecomprehensivebenefitoftheprojecttothe society. BasedonthecharacteristicsofPPPproject,thispapertakesurbanrail transitPPPprojectasanexample.Firstly,thefactordecompositionmethodis usedtostudytheevaluationindexsystemoftheproject'scomprehensivebenefit. Then,theevaluationindexofPPPprojectisevaluatedbyAHP-closevalue method.Secondly,amultiplelinearregressionmodelwasestablishedbetween theinfluencingfactorsandcomprehensivebenefitscoreofURBANrailtransit PPPproject,andthemodelparameterswereevaluatedwith6sampleproject data.Finally,themodelisusedtopredictthecomprehensivebenefitsofthe project,andthequantifiablepredictionresultsthatconformtotheempirical judgmentareobtained,whichprovesthefeasibilityandapplicabilityofthe method. Theresultsshowthatcomparedwiththetraditionalvalueformoney(VFM) evaluationmethod,theevaluationmethodproposedinthispaperismore objective,comprehensiveandpractical.Itishopedthatthismethodcanbea powerfulsupplementtovalueformoney(VFM)evaluationmethod,andcan provideanotherjudgmentdimensionforthegovernmenttojudgethe comprehensivebenefitvalueofPPPprojects. KEYWORDS：PPP；VFM；valueformoney；urbanrailtransi V 目录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................III 第一章绪论.........................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景和意义............................................................................................................1 1.2国内外研究综述........................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究综述..................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内外研究综述..................................................................................................3 1.2.3国内外研究述评..................................................................................................4 1.3研究内容和方法............................................................................................................4 1.3.1研究内容..........................................................................................................4 1.3.2研究方法..............................................................................................................5 1.4研究的创新点................................................................................................................6 第二章城市轨道交通PPP项目及其物有所值（VFM）评价............................................7 2.1城市轨道交通PPP项目概述..................................................................................7 2.1.1PPP的概念和优势..............................................................................................7 2.1.2城市轨道交通项目的特点.................................................................................8 2.1.3城市轨道交通PPP项目的发展情况.................................................................8 2.2城市轨道交通PPP项目的物有所值（VFM）评价.................................................9 2.2.1物有所值（VFM）概念介绍.............................................................................9 2.2.2物有所值（VFM）评价法的发展历程...........................................................10 2.2.3物有所值（VFM）评价法的实践...................................................................10 2.2.4PPP项目的物有所值（VFM）评价的不足之处及其影响...........................15 2.3本章小结......................................................................................................................17 第三章基于AHP-密切值的项目综合效益评价法构建............................................