I 摘要 伴随着我国城市住房近年来的持续发展，我国房地产市场增长势头强劲，作为房 地产市场的配套服务业务之一的住房消费信贷业务也步入了高速发展的节奏。然而， 由于我国住房需求巨大，仅依靠住房消费贷款业务难以解决住房问题，为了强化银行 贷款的积极性，有效使银行的贷款风险降低，中低收入人群实现住房目标，住房置业 担保应运而生。住房置业担保作为以经营风险为主的企业，风险管理水平的高低直接 影响到公司整体的经营的情况，关系公司未来发展的方向。加之近几年国内国外经济 形式变幻莫测，住房置业担保行业面临的风险与日俱增。因此，从住房置业担保公司 的角度，建立科学的，完善的风险管理的制度，对于公司在预测风险，识别风险，控 制风险方面的意义十分重大，从而更好的支持住房市场的发展。 首先,本文对我国个人住房贷款担保体系与个人住房贷款担保风险管理理论进行 了介绍，重点介绍了国内国外融资担保理论研究的成果，国内国外风险管理的理论研 究成果。选取X住房置业担保公司为研究对象，X住房置业担保公司作为专业的以 住房担保为业务基础的担保公司，主要的业务包括个人住房公积金贷款担保，个人住 房组合贷款担保，商品房抵押贷款担保，二手房抵押贷款担保等。公司发展二十余年， 已经发展成为行业内的典型代表。 本文对X住房置业担保公司贷款业务进行了分析，运用定性与定量分析相结合 的方法对X住房置业担保公司贷款业务风险指标进行分析，发现其中存在的问题； 然后通过贷款担保业务的操作流程中担保前期，担保中期，担保后期三个阶段的风险 成因进行了逐一剖析,存在的问题有：担保项目制度调查不健全，担保前期项目准入 缺乏科学合理的依据，信息沟通制度缺失，反担保措施单一，贷后管理制度滞后；最 后根据前面分析出来的风险成因对担保前期项目准入阶段的风险进行了评判与打分， 衡量风险的大小，提出了解决风险管理中存在问题的合理化对策；针对担保中期反担 保措施落实不到位，反担保形式单一的问题提出加强反担保措施管理的建议，合理设 计多种形式相结合的反担保措施；针对担保后期存在的风险，建立风险五级分类管理 体系，根据不同种类的风险给出针对性的应对措施。于此同时，本文从风险管理的人 力保障，风险管理的技术保障，风险管理的文化保障三个方面阐述了X住房置业担 保公司风险管理的保障措施，完善公司的风险管理机制。 本文的研究不仅仅关系到担保机构本身的生存与发展，还惠及外部利益相关者。 不断提高担保公司的风险管理水平，优化风险管理的流程，能够明显降低通过合作而 完成的业务中不良贷款发生的概率。在以经营风险为主的担保公司而言，更高水平的 风险管理能力，能够提高合作银行对担保机构的信任等级，促进公司业务健康的发展。 西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文 II 在变幻莫测的市场环境中，提高公司抗风险能力，为公司持久的发展产生积极的影 响。 关键词：个人住房贷款， 风险管理， 住房担保 ABSTRACT III ABSTRACT With the continuous development of urban housing in China in recent years, China's real estate market has a strong growth momentum. As one of the supporting services of the real estate market, housing consumer credit business has also stepped into the rhythm of rapid development. However, due to the huge demand for housing in China, it is difficult to solve the housing problem only by relying on housing consumer loan business. In order to strengthen the enthusiasm of bank loans, effectively reduce the risk of bank loans, and achieve the housing target for low and middle income groups, housing property guarantee arises at the right moment. As a risk-oriented enterprise, the level of risk management has a direct impact on the overall operation of the company and the future development direction of the company. In addition, in recent years, domestic and foreign economic forms are unpredictable, housing real estate guarantee industry faces increasing risks. Therefore, from the perspective of housing real estate guarantee company, the establishment of a scientific and perfect risk management system is of great significance for the company in terms of risk prediction, risk identification and risk control, so as to better support the development of the housing market. Firstly, this paper introduces the personal housing loan guarantee system and the risk management theory of personal housing loan guarantee in China, focusing on the research results of domestic and foreign financing guarantee theories and the theoretical research results of domestic and foreign risk management. X Housing Real Estate Guarantee Company is selected as the research object. X Housing Real Estate guarantee Company is a professional guarantee company whose business is based on housing guarantee. Its main businesses include personal housing accumulation fund loan guarantee, personal housing combination loan guarantee, commercial housing mortgage loan guarantee, second-hand housing mortgage loan guarantee and so on. The company has been developing for more than 20 years and has become a typical representative in the industry. In this paper, the loan business of X Housing Real Estate Guarantee Company is analyzed, and the risk indicators of the loan business of X Housing Real Estate Guarantee Company are analyzed by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, and the existing problems are found. And then through the loan guarantee business operation process to guarantee the 西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文 IV early, in the middle of the guarantee guarantee late one by one, analysised the three stages of risk management, the existing problems are: the guarantee system of project survey, guarantee access to the early stage of the project the lack of a scientific and reasonable basis, lack of information communication system, a single counter guarantee measures, post-loan management system lags behind; In the end, according to the risk causes analyzed above, the risk in the early stage of project access is evaluated and scored, the magnitude of the risk is measured, and the reasonable countermeasures to solve the problems in risk management are put forward. In view of the problems of inadequate implementation of medium-term counter-guarantee measures and single form of counter-guarantee, Suggestions are put forward to strengthen the management of counter-guarantee measures and rationally design counter-guarantee measures combining various forms. Aiming at the risks existing in the later period of guarantee, a five-level risk classification management system is established, and corresponding countermeasures are given according to different kinds of risks. At the same time, this paper expounds the guarantee measures of risk management of X Housing Real Estate Guarantee Company from three aspects: manpower guarantee of risk management, technical guarantee of risk management, and cultural guarantee of risk management, so as to improve the company's risk management mechanism. The research of this paper not only concerns the survival and development of guarantee institutions themselves, but also benefits external stakeholders. Continuously improving the risk management level of guarantee companies and optimizing the risk management process can significantly reduce the probability of non-performing loans in the business completed through cooperation. For guarantee companies that mainly deal with operational risks, a higher level of risk management ability can improve the trust level of cooperative Banks on guarantee institutions and promote the healthy development of the company's business. In the unpredictable market environment, improve the company's anti-risk ability, for the lasting development of the company has a positive impact. Keywords: personal home loan, risk management, housing guarantee 插图索引 V 插图索引 图1. 1 技术路线图 .................. 8 图2. 1 风险管理过程图 ........ 16 图3. 1 X住房置业担保公司组织架构图 ............ 22 图3. 2 2015-2019年X住房置业担保在保金额 24 图3. 3 2015-2019年X住房置业担保在保金额与公积金贷款担保金额 ...................... 24 图3. 4 2015-2019年担保代偿率 ......................... 27 图3. 5 2015-2019年代偿回收率 ......................... 28 图3. 6 2015-2019担保不良率 ............................. 29 表格索引 VII 表格索引 表3. 1 2015-2019年X住房置业担保在保金额与公积金贷款担保金额占比 .............. 25 表3. 2 2015-2019年个人住房贷款中心放款金额与公司担保金额占比 ....................... 25 表5. 1 宏观政策因素评分表 40 表5. 2 行业风险因素评分表 40 表5. 3 信用状况因素评分表 41 表5. 4