近年来，房地产行业发展迅速，成为国民经济的重要影响因素之一。作为资 金密集型行业，其金融体系具有内在脆弱性，极易引发资产泡沫，由此也导致房 地产行业面临着一系列可预知却缺乏有效、完善管控的财务风险。另一方面，消 费金融业务规模呈井喷式增长，其中，与房地产业联系紧密的住房消费信贷业务 也逐渐被大家所关注。住房消费信贷繁荣发展的同时，我国房地产行业面临的财 务风险逐渐增大，众多企业面临生存困境。在此背景下，分析住房消费信贷发展 与我国房地产企业财务风险之间的关系具有重要的理论意义与现实意义。 本文采用文献研究、实证研究等研究方法，对住房消费信贷与房地产企业财 务风险之间的关系进行研究。根据我国住房消费信贷及房地产企业财务风险现状， 采用Z值模型，将财务风险内容分为企业资产流动性、资本运营能力、盈利能力、 财务结构、实际销售业绩五个方面，构建ECM模型分析住房消费信贷与房地产企 业财务风险之间的均衡关系，旨在探讨住房消费信贷与房地产企业财务风险的影 响机制。研究认为，住房消费信贷对我国房地产企业财务风险的资产流动性、资 本运营能力、盈利能力、财务结构、实际销售业绩五个方面具有不同程度的影响。 第一，住房消费信贷与房地产企业资产流动性之间存在负相关关系。第二，住房 消费信贷与房地产企业资本运营能力之间存在正相关关系。第三，住房消费信贷 与房地产企业盈利能力之间存在正相关关系。第四，住房消费信贷与房地产企业 财务结构之间存在负相关关系。第五，住房消费信贷与房地产企业实际销售业绩 之间存在负相关关系。根据结论，本文从政府干预、企业转型、树立正确的财务 风险观念三个角度提出政策建议。 关键词：住房消费信贷；房地产企业；财务风险 II Abstract Inrecentyears,therapiddevelopmentoftherealestateindustryhasbecomeoneof theimportantfactorsaffectingthenationaleconomy.Asacapital-intensiveindustry,its financialsystemisinherentlyfragileandcaneasilytriggerassetbubbles.Asaresult, therealestateindustryfacesaseriesoffinancialrisksthatpredictableandlackcontrol. Ontheotherhand,thescaleofconsumerfinancebusinesshasgrownswiftly.Among them,thehousingconsumptioncreditbusinesscloselylinkedwiththerealestate industryhasalsograduallyattractedattention.withtheboomingdevelopmentof housingconsumptioncredit,thefinancialrisksfacedbytherealestateindustryinChina aregraduallyincreasing,andmanycompaniesarefacingdifficultiesintheirsurvival.In thiscontext,theanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenthedevelopmentofhousing consumptioncreditandthefinancialrisksofrealestatecompaniesinChinahas importanttheoreticalandpracticalsignificance. Inthisthesis,literatureresearch,empiricalresearchandotherresearchmethodsare usedtostudytherelationshipbetweenhousingconsumptioncreditandfinancialriskof realestatecompanies.AccordingtothestatusquoofChina'shousingconsumptioncredit andrealestatecompanies'financialrisks,theZvaluemodelwasadoptedtodividethe financialriskintofiveaspects:corporateassetliquidity,capitaloperatingability, profitability,financialstructure,andactualsalesperformance.AnECMmodelwas constructedtoexploretheequilibriumrelationshipbetweenhousingconsumptioncredit andrealestatecompanies'financialrisks,aimingtoexplorethespecificand comprehensiveimpactmechanismsofhousingconsumptioncreditandrealestate companies'financialrisks.Thestudybelievesthathousingconsumerfinancehas differentdegreesofimpactoncorporateassetliquidity,capitaloperatingability, profitability,financialstructure,andactualsalesperformanceoffinancialrisk.Firstly， therearerespectivelynegativecorrelationsbetweenhousingconsumercreditandasset liquidityofrealestatecompanies.Secondly,thereisapositivecorrelationbetween III housingconsumercreditandrealestatecompanies'capitaloperatingcapabilities. Thirdly,thereisapositivecorrelationbetweenhousingconsumercreditandrealestate companies'profitability.Fourthly,thereisanegativecorrelationbetweenhousing consumercreditandthefinancialstructureofrealestatecompanies.Fifthly,thereisa negativecorrelationbetweenhousingconsumercreditandactualsalesperformanceof realestatecompanies.Accordingtotheconclusions,thisthesisproposespolicy recommendationsfromthreeperspectivesofgovernmentintervention,enterprise transformation,establishmentofcorrectfinancialriskconcepts. Keywords:housingconsumptioncredit;realestateenterprise;financialrisk IV 目录 摘要................................................................................................................................I Abstract.............................................................................................................................II 第1章绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义.....................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景..........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义..........................................................................................................1 1.2文献综述.................................................................................................................2 1.2.1关于住房消费信贷的研究..............................................................................2 1.2.2关于企业财务风险内容的研究......................................................................3 1.2.3企业财务风险评估方法研究..........................................................................4 1.2.4关于企业财务风险控制的研究......................................................................5 1.2.5关于住房消费信贷与房地产企业财务风险相关性研究..............................5 1.3研究内容与方法.....................................................................................................6 1.3.1研究内容..........................................................................................................6 1.3.2研究方法..........................................................................................................7 第2章核心概念与相关理论.........................................................................................9 2.1核心概念.................................................................................................................9 2.1.1住房消费信贷核心概念..................................................................................9 2.1.2房地产企业财务风险核心概念及理论基础................................................10 2.2财务风险识别与评估基本模型...........................................................................12 2.3相关理论...............................................................................................................13 2.3.1有效需求不足理论........................................................................................13 2.3.2危机管理理论................................................................................................14 2.3.3风险管理理论................................................................................................14 第3章住房消费信贷及房地产行业财务风险现状分析...........................................15 3.1住房消费信贷发展现状.......................................................................................15 3.2我国房地产行业财务风险现状分析...................................................................18 3.2.1资产流动性分析............................................................................................20 3.2.2资本运营能力分析........................................................................................21 3.2.3盈利能力分析................................................................................................22 3.2.4财务结构分析................................................................................................24 V 3.2.5实际销售业绩分析........................................................................................25 第4章研究设计...........................................................................................................27 4.1指标选取...............................................................................................................27 4.2研究假设...................................................................