I 摘要 受电力宏观发展战略规划工具缺失的影响，政府的电力宏观发展战略计划和 可再生能源激励政策常常难以起到预期的指导性作用。如何将电力技术发展规划、 电力可持续转型战略及相关激励政策等因素进行综合考量，使其发挥对电力结构 低碳可持续转型发展的推动作用，并验证相应的合理性、可行性，是当前电力发展 战略研究要解决的主要问题之一。以可持续转型理论为基础，本文总结了电力技术 进步、结构运行特征和可持续转型激励政策因素影响下的电力生产结构发展过程， 构建了由电力技术进步、电力结构运行特征和可持续转型过程动态三部分组成的 电力结构低碳可持续转型研究框架，以对电力结构可持续转型过程进行研究。 首先，通过技术学习曲线从经济性变化的角度解释了电力技术进步过程，将学 习曲线、传递函数和平准化成本模型结合，建立了考虑学习曲线的平准化发电成本 模型，并利用模型预测了主要电力技术的经济性变化，分析了可持续转型激励政策 对电力技术经济性及其替代关系的影响，为电力技术发展及可持续转型激励政策 效果的量化分析研究提供了新的工具。 基于电力供需平衡和成本最小化的双协调优化机制，建立基于多主体互动的 电力时序生产模拟模型，利用模型计算得到了给定电力生产结构的运行特征指标， 计算了系统在灵活性、可靠性、经济性、环保性方面的评价指标，实现了系统特定 结构下关键运行特征指标的计算，为电力生产结构评价机制提供了依据。 在动态电力源-网综合规划模型基础上，将电力技术进步作为状态转移矩阵， 生产结构运行特征指标作为评价机制，构建了电力系统动态电力源-网综合规划模 型，通过情景设置，研究了我国电力结构中长期发展趋势，得出了实施严格低碳可 持续转型激励政策才能实现政府电力可持续转型目标，以及随着可再生能源电力 大规模发展，系统可靠性和经济性将明显下降的主要结论，丰富了电力系统规划理 论的功能，拓展了其应用范围。 针对电力低碳可持续转型过程中的战略制定及政策影响量化分析工具的问题， 本文构建的由电力技术进步趋势、电力结构运行特征及电力生产结构转型过程动 态三部分构成的电力技术进步下电力结构低碳可持续转型分析模型，完善和丰富 了电力结构宏观发展战略和相关激励政策效果研究的方法，将在电力宏观政策指 导电力系统发展实际方面起到桥梁作用。 关键词：可持续发展，电力技术进步，电力技术经济，电力结构转型 哈尔滨工业大学管理学博士学位论文 II Abstract From the perspective of cope with climate change, reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants, safeguard national energy security, control the total amount of energy consumption, de-carbonization and diversification of energy supply in an all- round way have become the main trend of China's and international energy development direction. The government of China has introduced a series of energy-saving and emission reduction policies and energy industry development plans to promote the low-carbon development of the power sector. However, due to the lack of effective macro- development strategy planning tools, the national macro-development strategy plans of electric power and the incentive development policy of renewable energy cannot play the expected guiding role. Under relatively clear and specific low-carbon development goals, the ongoing power transition pathway has recently been studied intensively in the frame of global sustainable transition. Based on the theory of sustainable transition, this dissertation describes the sustainable transition pathway of China's electric power system qualitatively and quantitatively, and research content is summarized as follows. Underpinned by the sustainable transition theory, in the dissertation, a research framework of sustainable transition of electric power production structure, which composed by techon-economic detail, explicit actor heterogeneity and transition pathway dynamics, is constructed to describe the process and stage characteristics of sustainable transition of power production structure driven by power technology progress. By combination of the learning curve, transfer function model and levelized power cost, a power technology progress trend analysis model was established. From the perspective of power cost evolution, this model can explain the medium and long term development trend of power technology progress and analyze the effect of sustainable transition policy of power production structure. Meanwhile, based on the balancing mechanism of power supply and demand balance with the dual objective function of minimum loss of load and operational cost, a time-series power production simulation model based on multi-agent interaction was established to describe the operating characteristics of the power structure and calculate the operating economy, reliability and environmental indexes, which provided a basis for the rationality evaluation mechanism of power production structure. Abstract III At last, a dynamic integrated power generation-transmission planning model is constructed by taking the power technology levelized cost model as the state transition matrix and the multi-agent interactive production simulation as the evaluation mechanism, so as to realize the trend analysis of power production structure development and its sustainable transition process under specific development and policy scenarios. From the above, with the goal of low-carbon power development, the framework of sustainable transition of electric power production structure, which implemented by the dynamic integrated power generation-transmission planning model can serve as a bridge between the power transition goal and the power system reality and help to solve the problem of ‘why and how to carry out’ the process of power transition. Keyword：Sustainable Development, Technology Prograss, Power Technological Economy, Power Structure Transition 哈尔滨工业大学管理学博士学位论文 IV 目 录 摘 要 . I Abstract ............................. II 第1章 绪论 ....................... 1 1.1 研究背景 .............. 1 1.1.1 历史背景 ... 1 1.1.2 实践背景 ... 2 1.1.3 问题的提出 .............................. 3 1.2 研究意义 .............. 4 1.2.1 理论意义 ... 4 1.2.2 实践意义 ... 5 1.3 相关研究动态及综述 ......................... 5 1.3.1 技术系统可持续转型理论研究 ............................. 5 1.3.2 电力低碳可持续转型相关研究 ............................. 8 1.3.3 电力技术的成本进步研究 ...... 9 1.3.4 电力系统规划优化研究 ......... 11 1.3.5 文献评述 . 13 1.4 研究内容与方法 14 1.4.1 研究框架 . 14 1.4.2 研究内容 . 15 1.4.3 研究方法和工具 .................... 16 1.4.4 技术路线图 ............................ 19 第2章 技术进步下电力结构可持续转型理论及分析框架 ....... 20 2.1 技术系统可持续转型理论 ............... 20 2.1.1 技术系统结构及特征 ............ 20 2.1.2技术系统转型过程及阶段 ..... 23 2.1.3 技术系统可持续转型 ............ 26 2.2 电力结构的可持续转型 ................... 27 2.2.1 电力系统组成及电力结构定义 ........................... 27 2.2.2 电力技术进步的发展及现状 33 目录 V 2.2.3 我国电力结构低碳可持续转型预期 ................... 36 2.2.4 技术进步下的电力结构可持续转型过程 ........... 38 2.3 技术进步下的电力结构可持续转型研究框架 .............. 40 2.3.1 技术系统可持续转型的量化分析模型 ............... 40 2.3.2 技术经济范式下的电力技术发展及进步趋势 ... 41 2.3.3 社会技术范式下电力多主体互动演化特征 ....... 42 2.3.4 电力结构可持续转型过程动态 ........................... 43 2.4 本章小结 ............ 44 第3章 平准化成本视角下电力技术进步及替代研究 ............... 46 3.1成本视角下的电力技术进步及技术替代 ....................... 46 3.1.1电力技术的成本 ..................... 46 3.1.2成本视角下的电力技术进步 . 49 3.1.3成本变化下的电力技术替代过程 ........................ 50 3.2基于学习曲线平准化成本的电力技术进步模型 ........... 51 3.2.1电力技术进步的阶段 ............. 51 3.2.2 基于学习曲线的电力技术成本演进方程 ........... 52 3.2.3平准化成本下的电力技术进步模型 .................... 53 3.2.4 学习曲线平准化成本模型的求解 ....................... 55 3.3成本视角下的电力技术进步及替代趋势研究 ............... 57 3.3.1 我国电力技术发展及成本现状 ........................... 57 3.3.2 电力技术进步参数及情景设置 ........................... 60 3.3.3电力技术学习曲线模型的构建 ............................ 62 3.3.4 电力技术进步的趋势分析 .... 62 3.3.5 电力技术进步下的电力技术替代情景分析 ....... 64 3.4 本章小结 ............ 66 第4章 基于多主体互动的电力结构运行特征研究 .................