在世界经济全球化的背景下，金融体系复杂化、多元化和自由化发展迅速推进。金 融混业经营成为大势所趋，我国金融机构的股权投资范围也在摸索中不断开放。目前， 我国金融机构股权投资仍按分业进行管理，金融业内各细分行业的股权投资范围不尽相 同，加之金融监管制度存在缺陷，金融机构为了避开现有的管理规定，往往采取间接形 式开展交叉持股。本文根据现有的文献进行分析，发现我国金融机构交叉持股存在一定 的风险，但已有的研究中鲜有涉及金融机构交叉持股的风险及其传染问题。因此，对金 融机构间的交叉持股的特点和有关风险传染进行研究，对改善其股权投资管理具有一定 的现实意义。 本文选取银行、证券、保险三大传统金融机构间的交叉持股关系为研究对象，通过 对比分析，总结归纳了我国金融机构交叉持股的主要特征和有关风险。运用复杂网络的 研究方法，以各金融机构为节点，金融机构间的交叉持股关系为边，构建了我国金融机 构交叉持股网络。在此基础上，运用医学传染领域的SIR模型对风险在金融机构交叉持 股网络上的传播进行了仿真模拟。研究发现：核心节点处的金融机构对整个网络的风险 传播和抵御能力起到关键作用；规范金融机构的交叉持股行为，并控制交叉持股的关系 数量，可以改善网络结构，延缓风险传播速度，但也会相应延长危机的持续时间；建立 事前风险预防机制、采取事后风险隔离处置措施均能够降低风险传染率，但会延长危机 的持续时间，而提高金融机构自身的风险免疫恢复率更有助于缩小风险传染范围。因此， 监管机构在重点关注核心金融机构，加强风险监控和预测的同时，更要引导金融机构强 化自身股权管理，帮助其提高金融风险抵御能力。 关键词：复杂网络；金融机构；交叉持股；SIR模型 II RESEARCH ON CROSS-SHAREHOLDING RISK OF CHINA'S FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS BASED ON COMPLEX NETWORK ABSTRACT Under the background of world economic globalization, the development of financial system complexity, diversification and liberalization is advancing rapidly. Financial mixed operation has become the general trend, and the scope of equity investment of financial institutions in China is also constantly open in the exploration. At present, the equity investment of financial institutions in our country is still managed according to different industries. The scope of equity investment in different sectors of the financial industry is different. In addition, there are defects in the financial supervision system. In order to avoid the existing management regulations, financial institutions often adopt indirect forms to carry out cross shareholding. Based on the analysis of the existing literature, this paper finds that there are some risks in cross shareholding of financial institutions in China, but the existing research rarely involves the risk of cross shareholding of financial institutions and its contagion. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the characteristics of cross shareholding and related risk contagion among financial institutions in order to improve their equity investment management. This paper selects the cross shareholding relationship among the three traditional financial institutions of banking, securities and insurance as the research object. Through comparative analysis, it summarizes the main characteristics and related risks of cross shareholding in China's financial institutions. By using the research method of complex network, taking the financial institutions as the node and the cross shareholding relationship between financial institutions as the edge, the cross shareholding network of financial institutions in China is constructed. On this basis, the SIR model of medical infectious field is used to simulate the spread of risk on the cross shareholding network of financial institutions. It is found that: the financial institutions at the core node play a key role in the risk III communication and resilience of the whole network; preventing the chaotic cross shareholding behavior of financial institutions can improve the network structure, delay the speed of risk communication, but also correspondingly extend the duration of the crisis; establishing pre risk prevention mechanism and taking post risk isolation measures can reduce the risk Infection rate, but it will prolong the duration of the crisis, and improving the risk immune recovery rate of financial institutions is more helpful to narrow the scope of risk infection. Therefore, while focusing on core financial institutions and strengthening risk monitoring and prediction, regulators should guide financial institutions to strengthen their own equity management and help them improve their financial risk resistance. KEY WORDS：Complex network；Financial institutions； Cross-shareholdings；SIR model IV 目 录 摘要 ................................................................... I ABSTRACT ............................................................... II 第一章 绪论 ............................................................. 1 1.1 选题背景及研究意义 ................................................ 1 1.1.1 选题背景 ..................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ..................................................... 1 1.2 国内外文献综述及相关研究评述 ...................................... 2 1.2.1 关于复杂网络的文献综述 ....................................... 2 1.2.2 关于企业交叉持股的文献综述 ................................... 5 1.2.3 相关研究评述 ................................................. 7 1.3 研究思路与方法 .................................................... 8 1.3.1 研究思路 ..................................................... 8 1.3.2 研究方法 .................................................... 10 1.4 论文内容与创新点 ................................................. 10 1.4.1 论文内容 .................................................... 10 1.4.2 论文创新点 .................................................. 11 第二章 相关理论基础 .................................................... 12 2.1 交叉持股的相关理论 ............................................... 12 2.1.1 交叉持股的“日德模式” ...................................... 12 2.1.2 交叉持股的界定 .............................................. 13 2.1.3 交叉持股的类型 .............................................. 13 2.2 复杂网络相关理论 ................................................. 14 2.2.1 复杂网络的概念 .............................................. 14 2.2.2 复杂网络的特征量测度指标 .................................... 14 2.2.3 复杂网络的基本特性 .......................................... 16 第三章 我国金融机构交叉持股的现状及风险 ................................. 18 3.1 金融机构交叉持股概况 ............................................. 18 V 3.2 金融机构交叉持股关系的形式 ....................................... 18 3.2.1 直接交叉持股 ................................................ 18 3.2.2 间接交叉持股 ................................................ 18 3.3 金融机构交叉持股的行为特点 ....................................... 19 3.3.1 交叉持股的偏好 .............................................. 19 3.3.2 交叉持股的比例 .............................................. 20 3.3.3 交叉持股的目的 .............................................. 21 3.4 金融机构交叉持股存在的风险 ....................................... 22 3.4.1 短期行为风险 ................................................ 22 3.4.2 内幕交易风险 ................................................ 22 3.4.3 资本泡沫风险 ................................................ 22 3.5 本章小结 ......................................................... 23 第四章 我国金融机构交叉持股网络的特征分析 ............................... 24 4.1 数据收集与预处理 ................................................. 24 4.2 金融机构交叉持股网络的构建 ....................................... 25 4.3 金融机构交叉持股网络的特征 ....................................... 27 4.3.1 社团结构特征 ................................................ 27 4.3.2 联结强度特征 ................................................ 28 4.3.3 镶嵌性特征 .................................................. 29 4.3.4 结构洞特征 .................................................. 30 4.4 金融机构交叉持股网络的测度 ....................................... 31 4.4.1 度及度分布 ......................