论文从Kahneman和Tversky的前景理论出发，结合实际中个体的决策现象， 主要关注以下问题，当决策者对未来决策结果有所预期时，决策者的参照点是否 基于其对结果的期望，以及基于期望的参照点将如何影响决策者的偏好和意愿。 已有的一些相关心理学和经济学研究的观点，对参照点是基于个体期望的这一观 点做出了浅尝辄止的表述，论文从观点提出到理论和实验支持，再到结论的实际 应用，对基于期望的参照点对个体决策的影响机制进行论述，对这一课题进行了 系统性的研究。 本研究中对参照点的界定是，个体对效用得失价值的判断所相对的某一基准 即参照点。根据心理学以及决策理论已有的研究结论，论文提出了个体决策时会 以期望为参照点，并且该参照点包括发生概率期望以及消费效用期望两个维度。 同时，在K?szegi和Rabin提出的参考依赖的效用函数的基础上，将以上两个维 度体现在了“损益效用”中的参照点因子中，给出基于期望参考点的损益效用函 数。之后，论文通过行为实验的方法对这一观点进行验证，依据损失厌恶心理设 计了三个实验对依据论文观点提出的三个假设进行了验证，并得出结论。当决策 者对决策结果进行预期时，在消费效用已知一定时，决策者的参照点基于概率期 望，并非基于其现实情况，决策者在基于概率期望的参照点附近表现出损失厌恶； 在发生概率已知一定时，决策者的参照点基于消费效用期望，并非基于其现实情 况，决策者在基于消费效用期望的参照点附近表现出损失厌恶；决策者的支付意 愿受基于期望的参照点影响，期望越高，决策者的支付意愿值越大，反之亦然。 论文的研究结论的应用主要可以表现在三个方面，对沉没成本效应进行解释，对 于制定销售策略有理论指导意义，对提升主观幸福感和达成个人目标具有指导作 用。 关键词：参照点，个体决策，期望，损失厌恶，行为实验 III ABSTRACT Based on the Prospect Theory of Kahneman and Tversky and the actual decision- making phenomenon, this thesis focuses on the following issues. If the decision-makers have expected the future decision-making outcomes, wether the decision-makers' reference points are based on their expectations of the outcomes, and how does the expectation-based reference point influence the decision maker's preferences and willingness. This topic was systematically studied by proposing the point, theoretical and experimental analyisis, as well as the practical application of the conclusion. The reference point in this study is defined as judging criteria used in judgment on the value of the gain or loss. Found on the existing research conclusions, we proposed that the individual decision maker take the expectation as the reference point, and the reference point includes the two dimensions of occurrence probability expectation and consumption utility expectation. Besides, based on the reference-dependent utility function proposed by K?szegi and Rabin, the above two dimensions were embodied in the reference point factor in the gain-loss utility, and the gain-loss utility function of expectation-based reference point was given. After that, we designed three experiments based on loss aversion to verify the three hypotheses based on this point of view and draw conclusions. When the decision makers anticipate the outcome of the decision, if the consumption utility is known to be certain, the reference point is based on the occurrence probability expectation, instead of its status quo, and the decision maker shows a loss aversion around it; If the occurrence probability is known to be certain, the reference point is based on the consumption utility expectation, instead of its status quo, and decision maker shows loss aversion around it; the decision maker's willingness to pay is affected by the expectation-based reference point. The higher the expectation, the greater the WTP value and vice versa. The application of the conclusions of this thesis can be mainly manifested in three aspects. Explaining the effect of sunk cost, theoretical guidance for formulating sales strategy, and theoretical guidance for improving subjective well-being and achieving personal goals. V KEY WORDS: Reference Point, Individual decision, Expectation, Loss Aversion, Behavioral Experiment VII 目 录 第1章 绪论 ..................................................................................................................1 1.1 问题提出 ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究内容 ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3 论文的创新点 ............................................................................................. 4 1.4 研究意义 ..................................................................................................... 5 1.4.1 理论意义 ......................................................................................... 5 1.4.2 实践意义 ......................................................................................... 5 第2章 理论研究综述 ..................................................................................................7 2.1 决策理论发展脉络 ..................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 传统的“理性人”假设下的决策理论 ............................................. 7 2.1.2 “有限理性”假设下的决策理论 ...................................................... 8 2.2 参照点理论 ................................................................................................. 9 第3章 基于期望的参照点理论 ................................................................................13 3.1 本研究参照点理论界定 ........................................................................... 13 3.2 损失厌恶与禀赋效应 ............................................................................... 13 3.2.1 损失厌恶 ....................................................................................... 13 3.2.2 禀赋效应 ....................................................................................... 15 3.3 基于期望的参照点 ................................................................................... 16 3.3.1 期望影响主观价值评价的心理学依据 ....................................... 16 3.3.2 基于期望的维度构成 ................................................................... 18 3.3.2 基于期望参照点损失厌恶的损益效用函数 ............................... 19 第4章 实验方法及实验实施 ....................................................................................23 4.1 实验方法 ................................................................................................... 23 4.1.1 实验方法在经济研究中的应用 ................................................... 23 4.1.2 实验研究的逻辑 ........................................................................... 23 4.1.3 实验研究的优势 ........................................................................... 24 4.1.4 本论文的研究方法及统计分析方法 ........................................... 25 VIII 4.2 实验一 ....................................................................................................... 26 4.2.1 实验一研究假设 ........................................................................... 26 4.2.2 实验一实验设计 ........................................................................... 26 4.2.3 操纵检验 ....................................................................................... 28 4.2.4 实验一理论结果预测 ................................................................... 29 4.2.5 实验结果与讨论 ........................................................................... 29 4.3实验二 ........................................................................................................ 30 4.3.1 实验二研究假设 ........................................................................... 31 4.3.2 实验二实验设计 ........................................................................... 31 4.3.3 操纵检验 ....................................................................................... 33 4.3.4 实验二理论结果预测 ................................................................... 34 4.3.5 实验二结果与讨论 ....................................................................... 35 4.4实验三 .........................