随着经济全球化的飞速发展，企业面临着复杂严峻的经营形势。市场需求的不 确定性，以及制造商和供应商之间肤浅的合作关系，导致企业面临着高库存和缺货 情况并存的问题。为了实现整条供应链系统的整合协同和高效运行，协同规划、预 测与补货（CPFR）开始慢慢吸引越来越多企业使用。但是由于烟草行业的垄断特点， 在一定程度上禁锢了烟草管理者的思想观念，普遍对供应链管理的重要性认识不足， 这在一定程度上阻碍了烟草公司整体竞争力的提升。 首先，本文对传统库存管理和供应链下的库存管理理论进行了简单的说明。其 次运用文献研究法、案例分析法、实地调查法和定量分析法等方法，直接接触调查 对象获取第一手资料，系统地了解A市烟草公司卷烟供应链管理现状和存在的问题， 包括消费需求变化无法准确预估、在途时间的不确定性、供应链缺乏协调且效率较 低、品牌规格数量较多等。然后，结合发展形势，针对性地提出供应链管理优化的 具体措施：及时准确研判卷烟消费需求、找准采购数量和时间节点、搭建工商双方 CPFR机制、科学规划卷烟品类布局等方法。此外，为保障供应链优化策略的实施， 提出了财务一体化、对标管理、营销队伍转型、构建批零业务共同体等措施。最后， 在总结本文研究结论的基础上，对烟草商业企业未来的研究方向进行了畅想和展望。 研究结果表明，通过CPFR把一条供应链各个节点上的企业集成起来，不但能为 企业降低库存成本、提高经营业绩，还能够改善合作伙伴间的关系，维持了企业间 相对均衡的地位，最终促进供应链利益最大化。CPFR是未来一段时期内供应链上下 游企业间在供应链管理上的更优解决方案。本文的研究成果，能够为卷烟商业企业 实施CPFR协同补货以及解决相关的库存管理问题提供一定程度的参考和借鉴。 关键词：库存管理；采购管理；供应链管理 III Abstract Withtheincreasinglyrapideconomicglobalization,enterprisesarefacingatotally complexcompetitionandbusinesssituation.Becauseoftheuncertaintyofthedemand andthesuperficialcooperationbetweenManufacturersandsuppliers,highinventoryand goodsshortageoccuratthesametime,whichleadsenterprisestocontrolcostsforprofits maximizing.Inordertorealizetheintegration,coordinationandefficientoperationofthe wholesupplychainsystem,moreandmoreenterpriseshavestartedtouseanew inventorymanagementtechnique,whichiscalledCPFR.Itfocusonthesharingof informationthroughtheestablishmentofstrategicalliance. Firstly,thetraditionalinventorymanagementandsupplychaininventory managementmethodsandtheoriesaresimplyexplainedinthispaper.Secondly,thepaper analyzesthecurrentproblemsofthesupplychainmanagementoftobaccocompaniesina city,includingtheunpredictablemarketdemand,theuncontrollabletimeintransit,the largenumberofbrandspecifications,andthelowefficiencyofthesupplychain.Thirdly, thepaperbringsforththemeasuresofsupplierrelationshipmanagement,including accurateanalyzingthemarket,capturingtherightquantityandtime,buildingCPFR mechanism,keepingreasonablebrandlayout.Fourthly,thispaperputsforwardsome measures,suchasfinancialintegration,benchmarkingmanagement,marketingteam transformation,andtheconstructionofwholesaleandretailcommunity.Finally,we discusstheshortcomingandproposethefutureresearchdirection. ThestudyshowedCPFRcouldreduceinventorylevelcost,increasesalesand improverelationshipbetweenpartners,whichisabettersolution.Thestudyresultofthis paperhasacertainreferencevalueforBusinessenterprisetosolverelatedinventory managementproblems. Keywords:inventorymanagement;procurementmanagement;supplychain management IV 目录 第1章引言..................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景和意义.........................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景..............................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义..............................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究综述..........................................................................................................3 1.2.1国外研究现状......................................................................................................3 1.2.2国内研究现状......................................................................................................5 1.2.3研究评述..............................................................................................................6 1.3研究内容和方法.........................................................................................................6 1.3.1研究内容..............................................................................................................6 1.3.2研究方法..............................................................................................................7 1.3.3技术路线..............................................................................................................7 第2章相关管理理论与方法..........................................................................................9 2.1传统库存管理理论......................................................................................................9 2.1.1ABC分类法..........................................................................................................9 2.1.2经济订货批量....................................................................................................10 2.2供应链下的库存管理理论........................................................................................10 2.2.1供应链管理（SCM）..........................................................................................10 2.2.2协同式供应链库存管理（CPFR）....................................................................12 第3章A市烟草公司供应链管理现状与问题分析.....................................................14 3.1公司概述....................................................................................................................14 3.2供应链管理现状........................................................................................................14 3.2.1采购管理过程....................................................................................................14 3.2.2产品供应情况....................................................................................................15 3.3供应链管理存在的问题............................................................................................17 V 3.3.1商业库存占用资金较大....................................................................................17 3.3.2库存周转天数相对偏高....................................................................................17 3.4供应链管理问题的原因分析....................................................................................19 3.4.1消费需求变化无法准确预估............................................................................20 3.4.2物流在途时间不稳定影响采购提前期............................................................21 3.4.3供应链间缺乏协调且响应速率较慢................................................................22 3.4.4在销品牌规格数量相对较多............................................................................23 第4章A市烟草公司供应链管理优化策略.................................................................26 4.1及时准确研判卷烟消费需求....................................................................................26 4.1.1构建终端信息采集网络....................................................................................26 4.1.2构建市场状态实时监控体系............................................................................30 4.2找准采购数量和时间节点........................................................................................33 4.2.1准确掌握物流在途时间....................................................................................33 4.2.2明确卷烟分类补货策略....................................................................................35 4.3搭建工商双方CPFR机制..........................................................................................38 4.3.1完善自下而上预测机制....................................................................................38 4.3.2探索工商协同预测补货...........................