随着网络技术的深入发展，互联网不仅对人们的衣食住行等生活方式和习惯产生了 重大的影响，同时也影响了人们参与休闲娱乐活动的方式和习惯。在2015年国务院在 工作报告中提出制定“互联网+”行动计划之后，互联网与传统行业的结合愈发快速和 紧密，而“互联网+旅游”在这样的大环境中也得到了进一步的发展。 本文以消费者在飞猪旅行网站上发表的评论内容和商家的回复内容作为研究对象， 立足于认知负荷理论和客户关怀理论，通过文献研究法和实证回归分析法的结合，建立 用户在线评论和商家回复对旅游产品在线销量的影响模型，并加入旅游目的地作为调节 变量进行研究。通过网络爬虫技术爬取飞猪旅行网151190条有效用户评论数据，使用 分词技术、深度学习技术对样本数据进行挖掘，利用SPSS进行独立样本T检验、逐步 回归分析方法，验证用户在线评论、商家回复对旅游产品在线销量的关系，发现：（1） 评论图片数量、商家回复数量和商家回复长度对旅游产品在线销量有显著正向作用；评 论长度和商家回复相似度对旅游产品在线销量有显著负向作用；评论情感得分对旅游产 品在线销量无显著影响。（2）旅游目的地对用户评论及商家回复分别与旅游产品在线 销量之间的关系具有显著调节作用。在选择境内旅游产品时，消费者在线购买境外旅游 产品时，潜在消费者的认知负荷会因为认知需求不高而有所降低；会因为对境内旅游目 的地的熟悉度高，而对体现商家关怀数量和互动性的回复数量和回复长度较为敏感；在 选择境内旅游产品时，由于潜在消费者对境外旅游目的的不熟悉，旅游信息认知需求较 高，所以其认知负荷相对“宽容”，对有一定信息量的评论长度的忍耐性会更高，对评 论图片数量的敏感度也更高，而相对于客户关怀的数量和互动性，选择境外旅游产品的 潜在消费者更需要客户关怀的质量，也就是较低的回复相似度。 关键词：在线评论；商家回复；旅游产品在线销量；旅游目的地；回复相 似度 II RESEARCHONTHEINFLUENCEOFONLINEREVIEWSANDBUSINESS RESPONSESONONLINESALESOFTOURISMPRODUCTS ——TAKINGTHETOURISMDESTINATIONASTHEADJUSTINGVARIABLE ANDFLYING-PIGTRAVELNETWORKASANEXAMPLE ABSTRACT Withthein-depthdevelopmentofnetworktechnology,theInternetnotonlyhasa significantimpactonpeople’slifestyleandhabits,suchasclothing,food,housingand transportation,butalsoaffectspeople’swaysandhabitsofparticipatinginleisureand entertainmentactivities.In2015,theStateCouncilputforwardtheplanof“Internetplus” aftertheworkreportwasmade,thecombinationofInternetandtraditionalindustrieswas moreandmorefastandclose,andInternetplustourismhasbeenfurtherdevelopedinsucha bigenvironment. Inthispaper,consumers'commentsandmerchants'repliesontheflypigtravelwebsite aretakenastheresearchobjects,basedonthecognitiveloadtheoryandcustomercaretheory, thispaperestablishesamodeloftheimpactofonlinereviewsandresponsesofbusinesseson onlinesalesoftourismproductsthroughthecombinationofliteratureresearchandempirical regressionanalysis,andthetourismdestinationisaddedasamoderatingvariable.Wecrawled 151190piecesofeffectiveusercommentdatathroughthewebcrawlertechnology,usedword segmentationtechnologyanddeeplearningtechnologytominethesampledata,andused SPSStoconductindependentsamplet-testandstepwiseregressionanalysistoverifythe relationshipbetweenuseronlinecommentsandbusinessresponsesononlinesalesoftourism products,finethat:(1)Thenumberofcommentpictures,thenumberofrepliesfrombusinesses andthelengthofrepliesfrombusinesseshavesignificantpositiveeffectsononlinesalesof tourismproducts;thelengthofcommentsandthesimilarityofrepliesfrombusinesseshave significantnegativeeffectsononlinesalesoftourismproducts;theemotionalscoreof III commentshasnosignificanteffectononlinesalesoftourismproducts.Tourismdestination hasasignificantmoderatingeffectontherelationshipbetweenusercommentsandbusiness responsesandonlinesalesoftourismproducts,respectively.Whenchoosingdomestictourism products,whenconsumerspurchaseoverseastourismproductsonline,thecognitiveloadof potentialconsumerswillbereducedbecauseofthelowcognitivedemand;theywillbemore sensitivetothenumberandlengthofrepliesreflectingthenumberofbusinessconcernsand interactivitybecauseoftheirhighfamiliaritywithdomestictourismdestinations;when choosingdomestictourismproducts,potentialconsumerswillbemoresensitivetoDuetothe unfamiliarpurposeofoverseastourismandthehighcognitivedemandfortourism information,thecognitiveloadisrelatively“tolerant”,andthepatienceforthelengthof commentswithacertainamountofinformationishigher,aswellasthesensitivitytothe numberofcommentpicturesparedwiththenumberandinteractivityofcustomercare, potentialconsumerswhochooseoverseastourismproductsneedthequalityofcustomercare more,thatistosay,thequalityofcustomercareishigherLowresponsesimilarity. KEYWORD：Onlinereview；businessresponse；onlinesalesvolumeoftourism products；tourismdestination；responsesimilarity IV 目录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................Ⅰ Abstract...................................................................................................................................Ⅱ 第一章绪论.............................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景..............................................................................................................................1 1.1.1中国互联网发展背景......................................................................................................1 1.1.2中国旅游业发展背景......................................................................................................2 1.2研究意义..............................................................................................................................2 1.2.1理论意义..........................................................................................................................2 1.2.2实践意义..........................................................................................................................3 1.3研究目的和研究内容..........................................................................................................4 1.3.1研究目的..........................................................................................................................4 1.3.2研究内容..........................................................................................................................4 1.4研究方法和研究框架..........................................................................................................5 1.4.1研究方法..........................................................................................................................5 1.4.2研究框架..........................................................................................................................6 第二章文献回顾与理论基础...................................................................................................8 2.1国内外研究现状..................................................................................................................8 2.1.1关于在线评论和商家回复的研究现状..........................................................................8 2.1.2关于在线评论和旅游产品的研究现状..........................................................................9 2.1.3关于在线评论、商家回复与旅游目的地的研究........................................................10 2.2相关理论基础....................................................................................................................10 2.2.1认知负荷理论................................................................................................................10 2.2.2客户关怀理论................................................................................................................11 第三章研究假设和研究模型.................................................................................................14 3.1研究假设............................................................................................................................14 3.1.1用户在线评论维度与旅游产品在线销量....................................................................14 3.1.2商家回复维度与旅游产品在线销量............................................................................15 3.1.