本文从国有大型贸易公司（J公司）2017年5月至2019年6月发生的铬合金方钢 仲裁案件的案例入手，就案件中该公司的应对决策和损失控制方案，结合实际效果分 析展开研究。本文通过对该案例在执行过程中符合德尔菲法的团队组织构建及各项决 策制定，按照时间顺序叙述各项决策的成因、制定方式及结果影响。并通过对于各决 策节点的预期损失估算，构建决策树图并观察实际执行的方案和当时最优方案的差异， 寻找并总结实际执行决策和模拟最优决策之间的差异及关联性，分析促使实际决策生 成的主、被动原因，提出可执行的优化方案。 最终通过对案例的研究，提出对于J公司乃至同类型的国企大型贸易公司的跨国 贸易业务风险控制和纠纷中的损失管理方面的问题，为实践中的业务管理优化、业务 执行期间的风险控制、发生业务纠纷后的损失管理和预案设计等问题提出理论指导和 切合实际的管理方法。探究在国际贸易业务在纠纷已经发生的情况下，从应对仲裁案 件的执行层面，分析国际贸易业务在面对仲裁索赔的损失控制问题，结合实际发生的 贸易纠纷案例，研究企业对于贸易纠纷的适合应对措施。 作者希望通过本文的研究分析，从国际贸易纠纷处理和损失控制方面，力图发掘 在我国现阶段市场透明化加剧的背景下，贸易企业必须应对且日益频繁的贸易纠纷或 仲裁的解决，为以后的国际贸易业务贸规避风险、处理纠纷及控制损失积累经验。 关键词：案例分析 涉外商事仲裁 决策树 损失控制 VI Research on decision making and loss control of J company in Hong Kong arbitration Abstract The dissertation starts with the arbitration case of chromium alloy square steel in Tianjin products and infrastructure materials Co., Ltd. from May 2017 to June 2019, and studies the company's decision-making and loss control scheme in the case, combined with the actual effect analysis. This article describes the causes, formulation methods, and results impact of each decision in chronological order through the team organization construction and various decision making in accordance with the Delphi method during the execution of the case. The purpose is to find and summarize the difference and correlation between actual execution decision and simulated optimal decision, by estimating the expected loss of each decision node, the decision tree is constructed and the difference between the actual implementation scheme and the optimal scheme at that time is observed. Through the case study, this paper puts forward the problems of risk control and loss management in disputes of J company and even large state-owned trading companies of the same type. It also puts forward theoretical guidance and practical management methods for business management optimization in practice, risk control during business execution, loss management after business disputes and plan design. In the case of international trade business disputes have occurred, from the implementation level of responding to arbitration cases, this paper analyzes the loss control problems of international trade business in the face of arbitration claims, combined with the actual cases of trade disputes, studies the appropriate measures for enterprises to deal with trade disputes. The author hopes that through the research and analysis of this paper, from the aspects of international trade dispute settlement and loss control, the author tries to find out that under the background of intensified market transparency at the present stage in China, trade enterprises must deal with and increasingly frequent trade disputes or arbitration, so as to accumulate experience for future international trade to avoid risks, handle disputes and control losses. Key words: Case analysis, foreign commercial arbitration, decision tree, loss control VII 目录 第一章 绪论 ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究目的 .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究意义 .......................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1理论意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2实践意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.3 研究内容及目标 .............................................................................................. 2 1.4 研究方法 .......................................................................................................... 3 第二章 文献综述 ........................................................................................................... 3 2.1 国外文献综述 .................................................................................................. 3 2.2 国内文献综述 .................................................................................................. 6 2.3 国内外研究现状评述 ...................................................................................... 7 第三章 J公司香港仲裁案复盘 ..................................................................................... 8 3.1国际商事仲裁概述 ........................................................................................... 8 3.1.1 国际商事仲裁的含义 ........................................................................... 8 3.1.2 国际商事仲裁的分类 ........................................................................... 8 3.1.3 国际商事仲裁的特性 ........................................................................... 9 3.2 J公司仲裁案的情况概述 ............................................................................. 11 3.2.1 仲裁案的发生背景及原因 ................................................................. 12 3.2.2 仲裁案双方企业简介及仲裁主张 ..................................................... 15 3.3 J公司就该仲裁的应对方案 ......................................................................... 16 3.3.1 J公司该仲裁案的团队架构 .............................................................. 16 3.3.2 多层级目标及抗辩方案 ..................................................................... 18 3.3.4基于德尔菲法的多级预案及决议 ...................................................... 20 3.3.5 J公司该仲裁的预算及损失预估 ...................................................... 23 3.4 J公司在仲裁案件中的方案实施情况 ......................................................... 25 3.4.1各优先层级预案的实施 ...................................................................... 26 3.4.2 预案实施过程中的措施调整 ............................................................. 26 3.4.3预案外问题的发生及处理 .................................................................. 27 3.5 仲裁案的判决及J公司损失情况 ................................................................ 28 第四章 J公司该案中方案实施及效果分析 ............................................................... 29 4.1专项团队的构建及配置分析 ......................................................................... 29 4.1.1 结果导向看团队架构合理性 ............................................................. 29 4.1.2 律师费用超出预算的原因 ................................................................. 30 4.2各层级预案在实施中的效果分析 ................................................................. 31 4.2.1 基于决策树法对各预案的赋值 ......................................................... 31 4.2.2 决策树赋值与实际的偏差比较 ......................................................... 36 4.3 J公司在该仲裁案中的决策及措施优化研究 ............................................. 37 4.3.1 优选项中的博弈选择 ......................................................................... 37 4.3.2 J公司在仲裁应对决策中的经验 ...................................................... 39 4.4 其他类同案例的比较及分析 ........................................................................ 40 4.4.1不同决策的差异分析 .......................................................................... 40 VIII 4.4.2不同决策及效果的比较分析 .............................................................. 41 第五章 经验总结及启示建议 ...................................................................