iii 摘要 在“大众创业，万众创新”的号召下，国家和地方均在积极营造创业环境，出 台积极的鼓励政策，期望通过提高创业的活跃度，来解决严峻的就业形势，激发出 社会各阶层的创业热情。虽然创业活动的数量不断增加，但创业的质量却不尽如人 意，失败率居高不下，约七成新创企业寿命不足一年。降低创业风险，提高创业成 功率，是创业研究的重大课题。 水射流行业利用普通自来水加压做功，产品应用广泛，涉及采油、炼化、市政、 船舶修理、道桥施工、基础建设等工业领域。从上游的零件制造商到下游的最终用 户，形成一个相对狭窄集中的产业链。本行业中有众多小微企业，它们的创业者在 资金匮乏、教育程度不高、没有专业团队等客观条件的约束下生存，并不断发展壮 大，其生存之道值得探索和分析。本文首先介绍了水射流行业的应用、创业企业的 概况和水射流行业的创业特征，对水射流行业的主要风险进行多维度介绍，并针对 同一风险，将不同创业者的观点进行了举例对比。 本文通过深度访谈的研究方法，采访了七位在水射流行业中的创业者，这些受 访者是企业的所有者、实际经营人、股东或合伙人，均位于创业企业的最高决策层。 访谈问题经过提前设计，以简单的问题切入，进而获得创业者对各种创业风险的分 享，然后转录成文字。借用构建主义理论，进行三次编码分析，从开放式编码，到 选择性编码，最后理论编码，构建了水射流行业的创业风险评价体系的理论模型。 再利用层次分析法，让几位受访者对汇总后的风险进行打分，然后利用模糊评价法 获得水射流行业创业风险综合评价分值。通过选取单个创业者的风险评估值与综 合评估分值的对比分析，发现创业者对创业风险的认知不够准确，有的风险高估， 有的风险低估，也有认识不全面的情况。构建水射流行业的创业风险评价体系有利 于全面地认识行业的创业风险，做出理性的创业决策。最后，针对行业特点，提出 了以创新为导向的风险管控建议，从紧贴国家政策、提高安全性和提高使用便捷性 的方面进行创新，建立创业企业的核心竞争力。 关键词：创业风险、风险评价、水射流行业。 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 ABSTRACT iv ABSTRACT As the development of industry transformation and social employment problem, central and local government claim abundant policies to cultivate circumstance and activate entrepreneurship, with expectation to solve several economic problems. Private small µ business take up the majority of new ventures, however, start-up companies are still in high percentage of failure. How to reduce entrepreneurial risk and increase successful entrepreneurial cases become critical topics for entrepreneurship research. Water jetting is a kind of industry which generate high pressure water from ordinary water in order to do cleaning and cutting jobs, widely used in oilfield, petrochemical refineries, municipal projects, ship repairing yards and etc. It composes a complete and concentrated supply chain, from part supplying to end users. There are a large number of micro startup companies in this industry, whose entrepreneurs survive successfully under abundant objective restraints, including low education background, no professional management team, insufficient cash flow. It is a valuable study why and how they survive. In this essay, first of all, it introduces the application, layout of venturing companies, as well as the features of entrepreneurship in this industry, and analyze the risks in different aspcts. There are perception citations from different entrepreneurs against same risk. seven entrepreneurs were interviewed and shared their true venture stories and opinions. The interviewees are owners, senior managers, share holders, or co-partners, all of them are located in final decision making team. The interview topics are designed in advance, starting with simple questions and get the first-hand data, then convert into paper work. These data are coded in three times by the way of constructive principle, and finally come out with a risk assessment system model in water jetting industry. Based on the assessment of all these interviewees, it is concluded into an overall assessment value for each coded risk. By score comparison between certain respective assessment with the overall assessment, it is found entrepreneurs may overestimate and underestimate certain risk. It is necessary to perceive comprehensively all kinds of risk in this industry, in order to make reasonable decisions. Finally the author issues a risk control proposal based on innovation from three aspects according to the features of this industry. KEYWORDS： Entrepreneurial Risk, Risk Assessment, Water Jetting Industry. 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 目录 v 目录 摘要 ........................................................... iii ABSTRACT ........................................................ iv 1 概述 ......................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景、目标及意义 ......................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ...................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究目标 ...................................................................................... 2 1.1.3 研究意义 ...................................................................................... 2 1.2 论文研究的思路、方法及创新之处 ....................................................... 2 1.2.1 研究思路 ...................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 研究方法 ...................................................................................... 5 1.2.3 本文创新点 .................................................................................. 6 2 相关理论和文献综述 ........................................... 7 2.1 相关概念 ................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 创业的概念 .................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 风险的概念 .................................................................................... 8 2.1.3 创业风险的概念 ............................................................................ 9 2.2 相关理论 ................................................................................................... 9 2.3 国内外研究现状 ..................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 国外研究成果 .............................................................................. 10 2.3.2 国内研究成果 .............................................................................. 10 3 水射流行业的创业风险分析 .................................... 12 3.1 水射流行业的分析 ................................................................................. 12 3.1.1 水射流行业的应用概况 .............................................................. 12 3.1.2 水射流行业的创业企业概况 ...................................................... 13 3.1.3 水射流行业的创业特征 .............................................................. 14 3.2 水射流行业创业风险的多维度分析 ..................................................... 16 3.2.1 从渠道角度分析 .......................................................................... 16 3.2.2 从财务角度分析 .......................................................................... 17 3.2.3 从管理角度分析 .......................................................................... 18 3.2.4 从技术角度分析 .......................................................................... 19 4 水射流行业创业风险评价指标体系的构建 ........................ 21 4.1 水射流行业创业风险评价指标体系的构建思路 ................................. 21 北京交通大学硕士专业学位论文 目录 vi 4.1.1风险评价指标体系构建的目的 ................................................... 21 4.1.2风险评价指标体系构建的流程 ................................................... 21 4.2 水射流行业创业风险评价指标体系的构建过程 ................................. 22 4.2.1 风险评价指标体系的原则 .......................................................... 22 4.2.2风险评价指标体系的编码 ........................................................... 23 4.2.3风险评价体系指标的确定 ........................................................... 26 5 水射流行业创业风险评价体系的应用 .............................. 27 5.1 创业风险评价体系的实施 .........