基于熵度量法的再生水项目融资租赁风险评价研究 摘要 随着我国城市化率的不断提升，我国水资源环境正饱受着污染之痛，许多区 域直接面临着水资源不足的严峻形势，水资源的不足现象已成为掣肘我国经济 全面发展的因素之一，解决水资源重复利用问题已显得刻不容缓。再生水回用作 为城市污水重复利用最有效的方式之一，正越来越受到重视。然而，再生水项目 的建设具有投入资金量大、建设周期长以及投资回报期长等特点，长期以来缺乏 有效的社会资本进入，而只是单纯地依靠政府投资建设，从而造成我国再生水行 业的发展全面落后于国际水平。所以，扩大再生水行业的融资渠道已成为当务之 急。融资租赁模式既具有“融资”的功能，又具备 “融物”的特性，在各类基 础设施建设中已得到充分应用。 本文将融资租赁模式引入到再生水项目融资中，通过分析和归纳其风险要 素，构建出适合于再生水项目融资租赁的风险评价指标体系和评价模型，为融资 租赁模式应用到再生水行业的风险评价提供了一个可以参考的理论框架；同时 也为租赁公司在实际操作再生水项目时进行风险识别和评价提供借鉴与帮助。 本文在研究方法上，分别使用了文献综述法、熵度量法和案例分析法。本文 对国内外专家关于融资租赁、水务设施融资以及项目风险评价等方面进行了文 献的梳理和总结，为本文接下来融资租赁模式参与再生水项目建设中的风险评 估和模型应用等方面奠定了理论基础；在评价指标体系构建的基础上，通过熵度 量法构建了融资租赁参与再生水项目中的风险评价模型，并通过对T公司再生 水项目的实践应用分析，为融资租赁公司提供决策参考。 本文首先对国内外学者关于融资租赁、水务设施融资以及项目融资租赁的 风险评价相关理论的研究现状进行回顾；接着分别从再生水项目和融资租赁行 业两个维度进行概述，分析出融资租赁模式在再生水项目建设中的应用优势和 应用场景，并提出融资租赁模式在再生水项目应用中存在的风险问题。之后，基 于风险评价的理论依据详细分析了再生水项目融资租赁的风险特征、风险类型 以及风险来源；然后在此基础上结合再生水项目建设的特点，统筹兼顾多方风险 摘要 要素，对再生水项目融资租赁进行风险因素识别汇总和筛选，并构建评价指标体 系和评价模型；接着站在租赁公司角度，通过实际案例，详细介绍熵度量法在某 再生水项目融资租赁中的实际应用，为该再生水项目的融资风险进行评价，检验 评价模型的合理性和实践性，并提出相应风险防范措施；最后，对本文结论进行 了概括性的总结，并指出文中研究的不足，以及对未来的研究方向做出了展望。 本文取得的主要结论和成果为： （1）介绍了融资租赁模式在再生水项目中的应用优势和应用场景，为融资 租赁模式参与水处理行业的实践应用提供了非常强的指导意义。 （2）本文通过再生水项目融资租赁过程中的梳理分析，最终构建了8个一 级评价指标和24个二级评价指标体系，通过熵度量法能有效了解再生水项目融 资租赁过程中的各风险指标的影响程度，为租赁公司选择合适的再生水项目提 供决策指导。 （3）本文通过实际案例检验熵度量法在具体项目中的应用情况，可为不同 风险偏好的租赁公司提供一定的灵感和启示，租赁公司可根据自己的风险偏好 动态调整评价指标参数。 （4）文中立足于租赁公司的角度，并结合T公司案例，分别从租前、租中 和租后提出了再生水项目融资租赁的风险应对策略，具有很强的针对性，为租赁 公司的风险防范提供实际操作支撑。 关键词： 再生水项目 融资租赁 熵度量法 风险评价 ABSTRACT Research on Risk Assessment of Financial Lease for Reclaimed Water Project Based on Entropy Measurement ABSTRACT With the continuous improvement of urbanization rate in China, China's water resources environment is suffering from the pain of pollution, many regions are directly facing the severe situation of water resources shortage, which it has become one of the factors restricting the overall development of China’s economy and needs to be addressed immediately. As one of the most effective ways of municipal sewage recycling, the reuse of reclaimed water is receiving more and more attention. However, reclaimed water projects involve large investments with long construction period but even longer investment return period. Therefore, for a long time, it has been a lack of effective social capital support but merely dependent on government investment, which the development of China's recycled water industry has lagged behind the international level. As a result, the expansion of financing channels for reclaimed water projects has become a top priority for the development of reclaimed water industry. Financial leasing mode has the dual characteristics of “financing capital” and “financing goods” and has been widely applied into various infrastructure constructions. In this paper, the financial leasing model is introduced to the reclaimed water projects. And by analyzing those risk factors, a specified risk evaluation index system and assessment model are generated and can work as a theoretical framework for reference during risk assessment of this kind of projects. Meanwhile, this system and model are meaningful to leasing companies to assess and identify risks when dealing with reclaimed water projects. The literature review method, entropy measurement method and case analysis ABSTRACT method are used respectively in this paper. Theory researches of the experts at home and abroad experts on financial leasing, financing of water utilities and project risk evaluation are reviewed and summarized, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following aspects of financial leasing model's participation in the construction of recycled water projects, such as risk assessment and model application; On the basis of the construction of the evaluation index system, the risk evaluation model of financial leasing participating in the recycled water project is established by entropy measurement method, which assesses the risk in the reclaimed water financing project of company T, providing a reference for financial leasing companies to make decisions. In the beginning, this paper reviews the current situation of risk assessment theories of finance lease, water facility financing and project finance lease at home and abroad. Then, it is summarized from the two dimensions of recycled water project and finance lease industry respectively, which analyzes the application advantages and scenarios of finance lease model in the construction of reclaimed water project, and puts forward the risks of finance lease in the application of reclaimed water project. Meanwhile, the theoretical basis of risk evaluation of finance lease project and the general method of risk evaluation are expounded to lay a theoretical foundation for the following analysis. After that, based on the theoretical basis of risk assessment, the risk characteristics, types of risks as well as sources of risks of financial leasing for reclaimed water projects are analyzed in detail. Then combining the characteristics of the construction of reclaimed water projects and taking comprehensive risk factors into account, the risk factors of the finance lease of reclaimed water projects are identified, summarized and screened, so that the risk evaluation index system and the risk evaluation model are built up. From the perspective of the leasing company, the actual application of the entropy measurement method in the financial leasing of a reclaimed water project is introduced in detail through a practical case, to evaluate the financing risk of the reclaimed water project, test the rationality and practicality of the risk evaluation model, and put forward corresponding risk countermeasures. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is summarized, and the shortcomings of this paper are put forward. At the same time, the future research direction of this paper is prospected. Key findings and conclusions are as follows: ABSTRACT (1) This paper introduces the application advantages and scenarios of financial leasing in reclaimed water projects, which provides a strong guiding significance for the practical application of financial leasing in the sewage treatment industry. (2) In this paper, 8 primary risk evaluation index and 24 secondary risk evaluation indexes are finally constructed through sorting and analysis in the process of financing and leasing of reclaimed water projects. The entropy measure method can effectively understand the influence degree of each risk index in the process of financing and leasing of reclaimed water projects, and provide decision-making guidance for leasing companies to choose appropriate re