为全面加强地方政府性债务管理，国务院印发《关于加强地方政府性债务管 理的意见》国发(2014)43 号文，文件要求划清企业和政府债务偿债责任界 限，剥离 政府城投公司政府融资职能，切实做到谁借谁还、风险自担。由于城投公司原背 负的政府性债务规模巨大且大多无项目收益，再加上禁止新借政府性债务偿还旧 债，融 资渠道被嘎然切断，城投公司政府信仰被逐渐打破，债务风险集中凸显。 在此背景下，如何识别、评价及应对城投公司债务风险，城投公司将如何持续发 展等都是值得研究探讨 的问题。 本文主要从城投公司债务风险概念、特征、识别、成因与防控等方面开展探 讨，首先阐述了有关的研究背景和思路，回顾了国内外对于债务风险理论方面的 研究，以进 一步明确研究思路和方法。 其次，本文主要从城投公司成立的背景及其性质，主要采取的融资渠道、债 务的成因及主要债务风险特征等方面对城投公司债务风险进行全面解析， 深度剖 析城投公司债务风险特征及深层次成因，以便客观地评价债务风险和有针对性的 应对债务风险。 再次，在对 A 城投公司投资、融资、经营状况客观描述的基础上，考虑 包括 偿债能力、盈利能力等各类财务指标及各级地方政府对平台公司的支持意愿和支 持能力等影响因素的基础上，从外部宏观环境、企业内部因素两个层面共选取 10 个指标来 对 A 城投公司债务风险进行度量，构建了 A 城投公司的债务风险评价体 系。 最后在已构建的债务风险评价体系的基础上，运用因子分析法、Topsis 分析法、 基于 Topsis 改 进的因子分析法和 K—均值聚类法对 A 城投公司债务风险进行实证 研究，并从政府层面和公司内部的角度提出 A 城投公司债务风险防控对策，实证 结果表明，该分析评价体系 是有效的。 本文期望通过对城投公司债务风险评价与防控的相关研究，提高城投公司债 务风险管控的有效性，降低其债务风险发生的可能性，为城投公司的市场化转型 和地方政 府的健康发展提供理论依据与决策支持。 关键词：城投公司，债务风险评价，风险防控湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II Abstract In order to comprehensively strengthen the management of local government debt, the State Council issued the Opinions on Strengthening the Management of Local Government Debt (2014) No .43, which requires that the boundaries of the debt-servicing responsibilities of enterprises and governments be clearly defined, that the government financing functions of the City Investment Corporation be stripped off, and that the risks are borne by those who borrow and who pay back debt. Because of the huge scale of the original government debt and mostly no project income, coupled with the ban on new government debt to repay old debt, financing channels were cut off, the city investment company government belief was gradually broken, debt risk concentrated. Against this background How to identify, evaluate and deal with the debt risk of CICC and how to develop continuously are worthy of study. The debt risk of the city investment company refers to the uncertainty that the city investment company with government background can not repay the principal and interest of the debt due in full under the macro policy environment of de-platform. This paper mainly from the city investment company debt risk concept, characteristics, identification, causes and prevention and control and other aspects of the discussion, first elaborated the relevant research background and ideas, reviewed the domestic and foreign research on debt risk theory, in order to further clarify the research ideas and methods. Then this paper divides the debt status of the city investment company Analysis, mainly from the city investment company set up the background and its nature, mainly adopted financing channels, debt causes and main debt risk characteristics, and so on, in-depth analysis of the city investment company debt characteristics and deep-level causes, in order to objectively evaluate the debt risk and targeted response. Based on the objective description of investment, financing and operation status of A City Investment Corporation ,10 indexes are selected from two levels: regional economic situation and internal factors, considering the influence factors of various financial indexes including solvency, profitability and the support willingness and support ability of local governments to platform companies For each city investment company debt risk measurement, constructed the A city investment company debt risk appraisal system. On the basis of the established debt risk assessment system, the Topsis improved factor analysis method and K—mean clustering method are used to empirically study the debt risk of A city investment company, and the countermeasures of debt risk prevention and control of the city investment company are put forward from the perspective of national macro, local government and internal company. This paper aims to improve the effectiveness of local government investment company's debt risk management through the research on the debt risk assessment and湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 III prevention and control. reduce the possibility of its debt risk occurrence, and provide theoretical basis and decision support for the market-oriented transformation of the city investment company and the healthy development of government. Keywords:city investment company, debt risk assessment, risk prevention and control湖 北 工 业 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 IV 目 录 摘 要...................................................................................................................................................I Abstract...............................................................................................................................................II 目 录...............................................................................................................................................IV 第 1 章 引 言.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 及研究意义...............................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现 状.......................................................................................................................2 1.3 研究思路及研究方 法...............................................................................................................9 1.4 论文结构及研究内 容...............................................................................................................9 第 2 章 城投公司债务风险概 述........................................................................................................ 11 2.1 城投公司及其债务风险诠 释.................................................................................................11 2.1.1 城投公司的界 定........................................................................................................ 11 2.1.2 城投公司的发展历 程................................................................................................ 11 2.1.3 城投公司债务风险的界 定........................................................................................13 2.2 城投公司债务风险形 成.........................................................................................................14 2.2.1 宏观环境视角风险形成过程分 析............................................................................15 2.2.2 公司内部视角风险形成过程分 析............................................................................16 2.3 城投公司债务风险特 征.........................................................................................................16 第 3 章 城投公司债务风险评价体系构 建........................................................................................ 19 3.1 城投公司债务风险评价体系构建思 路..................................................................................19 3.1.1 评价体系构建目 的.................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 评价体系指标构建方法及维 度.................................................................................19 3.2