-I- 摘要 我国各种能源类资源总量位居世界前列，但大量集中分布在北部和西北部地区， 而相较于东部和西南沿海地区，我国北部和西北地区轻重工业较少，人口密集程度 也小，所以东部和西南沿海地区对煤炭的需求更大。所以如何将煤炭从北到南输送、 从西到东输送，为切实解决这一问题，北煤南运成为我国煤炭运输发展的总体战略 规划。曹妃甸港在环渤海经济圈正对出海口的位置上，地处唐山市最南端沿海地区， 在煤炭运输港口中有这举足轻重的地位。本文引入风险评价理论，对曹妃甸煤炭码 头项目的风险进行了模糊分析评价。 首先，介绍项目的条件背景，建设现状。港口建设项目具有较长的建设周期、 巨大的投资规模和很高的投资风险等特点。因此在对港口项目投资风险评价上便从 市场风险、政策与环境风险、融资风险、运营风险、管理风险这五个方面进行综合 识别。 其次，根据曹妃甸港口的实际情况与风险因素分析识别的结果，对曹妃甸L煤 码头项目的风险进行层次划分，设置两级指标，配合建立风评体系。 再次，更深一步对项目风险程度进行评估，综合项目的基本情况给出合理研究 方案，进行专家评分，采用模糊综合评估方法，分析项目建设中存有的各项风险指 数，最终根据分析的指数标准得到结果。 最后，根据项目的具体内容以及各个影响风险因素产生的原因进行分析，再通 过从上述中的五个角度进行深层次风险分析，阐述对各风险的控制。对本次论文中 进行的所有研究工作做最终汇总可以取到一个结论，根据不同的风险因素给出风险 防范的具体方法和建议。 关键词：港口项目投资；风险识别；风险评价；风险控制 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -II- Abstract Chinaisrichincoalresourceswithunevenregionaldistribution.Thecoaliswidely distributedinthenorthandnorthwest,andtheeastandsouthwestarethemaincoal demandareas.Therefore,thetransportationofcoalfromnorthtosouthandfromwestto easthasbecomethemainstrategicpatternofcoalinChina.Caofeidianportislocatedin thenortheastofHebeiprovince,thesouthofTangshancity,isChina'scoaltransportan importantport.Basedontheriskcontroltheory,thispaperadoptsfuzzyanalysismethod toevaluatetheprojectriskandappliesittoCaofeidianLcoalterminalproject. Firstofall,itintroducestheconditionbackgroundandconstructionstatusofthe project.Theportconstructionprojecthasthecharacteristicsoflongconstructionperiod, largeinvestmentamountandhighinvestmentrisk.Identifyportprojectinvestmentrisk assessmentfromfiveaspectsofmarketrisk,policyandfinancingrisk,financingrisk, operationriskandmanagementrisk. Secondly,accordingtotheactualsituationofCaofeidianportandtheresultofrisk factoranalysisandidentification,theriskofCaofeidianLcoalterminalprojectisdivided atdifferentlevels,first-levelindexandsecond-levelindexaresetup,andtherisk evaluationindexsystemisestablished. Then,inordertofurtherevaluatethedegreeofriskoftheprojectanddesignthe researchscheme,thispapercombinestheactualbackgroundoftheprojectandanalyzes theoverallriskoftheprojectthroughthecombinationofexpertscoringandfuzzy comprehensiveevaluation,andconcludesthatsomerisksexist. Finally,accordingtothemaincontentofvariousprojectrisksandtheircauses, throughtheriskanalysisfromthemarketrisk,policyandfinancingrisk,financingrisk, operationrisk,managementrisk,thecontrolofeachrisk.Thispapersummarizesthe researchwork,drawsaconclusion,andputsforwardthespecificmeasuresandmethodsof riskprevention. Keywords:Portprojectinvestment;Riskidentification;Riskassessment;Riskcontrol 目录 -III- 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................II 目录.................................................................................................................................III 第1章绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景和意义.......................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景.............................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义.............................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究现状.......................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状.....................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状.....................................................................................................3 1.2.3研究现状评述.....................................................................................................6 1.3研究内容和方法.......................................................................................................6 1.3.1研究内容.............................................................................................................6 1.3.2研究方法.............................................................................................................6 第2章港口项目投资风险评价理论概述.........................................................................8 2.1风险的概念及特点...................................................................................................8 2.1.1风险的概念.........................................................................................................8 2.1.2风险的特点.........................................................................................................8 2.2港口项目投资特点及投资风险特征.......................................................................9 2.2.1港口项目投资特点.............................................................................................9 2.2.2港口项目投资风险特征....................................................................................10 2.3风险评价理论概述..................................................................................................10 2.3.1风险评价............................................................................................................10 2.3.2风险评价的原则................................................................................................11 2.3.3风险评价方法....................................................................................................12 2.4本章小结..................................................................................................................12 第3章曹妃甸港L煤码头项目概况及投资风险评价体系构建...................................13 3.1曹妃甸港L煤码头项目简介.................................................................................13 3.2港口项目投资风险识别..........................................................................................14 3.2.1市场风险............................................................................................................14 3.2.2政策与环境风险................................................................................................15 3.2.3融资风险............................................................................................................16 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -IV- 3.2.4运营风险............................................................................................................16 3.2.5管理风险............................................................................................................17 3.3建立风险因素评价指标体系..................................................................................17 3.4本章小结..................................................................................................................18 第4章曹妃甸港L煤码头项目投资风险评价...............................................................19 4.1投资风险评价指标体系权重确定..........................................................................19 4.1.1投资风险评价指标体系权重确定方法的选择................................................19 4.1.2投资风险评价指标体系权重的确定................................................................21 4.2投资风险评价方法的选择................................................