我国房地产市场开始由过去的高速增长和去库存阶段步入当前“调结构”与“稳增长” 并存时期。河源市江东新区自2014年获批建设以来，开始逐步融入深莞惠（3+2）经济 圈，打造承接产业转移集聚区，并依托于“产业融城”战略实施来推进区域经济发展与人 口集聚，为房地产市场崛起提供了基础性条件和发展空间。本文聚焦于江东新区S房地 产项目的可行性论证，首先，对项目区位情况和基本数据进行阐述，并分析项目规划设 计方案；其次，综合分析项目所在城市河源市宏观经济环境与房地产市场表现以及项目 所属区域的投资环境；再次，基于SWOT分析框架系统解析项目开发的优势、劣势、 机会与威胁，并评判项目综合定位、价格定位和客户定位；接着，通过分析项目投资成 本与销售收入进而评价项目经济效益及其不确定性；最后，在项目风险分析的基础上， 探索项目风险防控的相应政策措施。 研究结果表明：第一，S房地产项目开发面临一些劣势，具体表现在当地居民消费 能力不强、消费需求不足，楼盘周边的生活配套设施不完善，以及来自宏观政策调整和 同行业竞争的威胁。第二，本项目开发也具有突出的优势，诸如区位优势较明显，具有 “产业融城”战略支撑，属于商品房价格洼地城市，能享受大湾区经济辐射带来的发展 机遇等。除此之外，河源市新房和二手房交易迎来了一波小高峰，住房消费出现复苏的 迹象，商品房销售价格增长较稳定，均属于项目开发利好因素。第三，项目综合定位为 “江东新区标志型高性价比的微型综合体”，开发产品类型主要为住宅建筑和商业建筑 两种类型，其中，住宅建筑包括高层住宅和叠拼住宅。第四，项目投资、销售的收益率 较高，利润总额为11687万元，净利润为6803万元，销售净利润率为9.51%，投资净 利润率为14.2%，IRR为24.21%，NPV为2721万元，投资具有可行性。第五，项目开 发具有较强的市场扛风险能力，其销售价格盈亏平衡点完全低于当前东江新区各类商品 房的最低销售价格。总之，本项目开发具有充分可行性。 关键词：房地产项目；市场定位；经济效益；风险防控；可行性研究 II Abstract China's real estate market began from the past stage of high-speed growth and destocking into the current "adjustment structure" and "steady growth" coexistence period. Since its approval in 2014, the Jiangdong New Area of Heyuan City has been gradually integrated into Shengguanhui (3+2) economic circle, building to undertake industrial transfer agglomeration area, and relying on the implementation of the "industrial city" strategy to promote regional economic development and population agglomeration, for the rise of the real estate market to provide the basic conditions and development space. This paper focuses on the feasibility demonstration of the s real estate project in Jiangdong New Area. Firstly, it expounds the location and basic data of the project and analyzes the project planning and design scheme. Secondly, it analyzes the macroeconomic environment and the real estate market performance of Heyuan City and the investment environment of the region where the project belongs. Thirdly, it analyzes the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of the project development based on the SWOT analysis framework system, and judges the project comprehensive positioning, price positioning and customer positioning. Finally, on the basis of project risk analysis, explore the corresponding policy measures of project risk prevention and control. The results show that: first, the development of s real estate projects faces some disadvantages, which are manifested in the weak consumption ability of local residents, insufficient consumption demand, and imperfect living facilities around the real estate, and the threat from macro policy adjustment and competition in the same industry. Second, the development of this project also has outstanding advantages, such as obvious location advantages, with "industrial financial city" strategic support, belong to the commercial housing price depression city, can enjoy the development opportunities brought by economic radiation in Dawan area, and so on. In addition, Heyuan new housing and second-hand housing transactions ushered in a wave of small peaks, housing consumption signs of recovery, commercial housing sales price growth is more stable, all belong to the project development positive factors. Third, the comprehensive positioning of the project is "Jiangdong New District logo-type high cost-effective micro-complex ", the development of product types are mainly residential buildings and commercial buildings, among which, residential buildings include high-rise housing and stacked housing. Fourth, the return rate of project investment and sales is higher, the total profit is 116.87 million yuan, the net profit is 68.03 million yuan, the net profit margin of sales is 9.51%, and the net profit margin of III investment is 14.2%. Fifth, the project development has a strong ability to carry risks in the market, its sales price break-even point is completely lower than the current Dongjiang New District of all kinds of commercial housing sales price. In conclusion, the development of this project is fully feasible. Keywords: real estate projects; market positioning; economic benefits; risk prevention and control; feasibility study IV 目 录 摘要 ............... I Abstract ......... II 第一章 绪论 .. 1 1.1 选题背景与意义 ................ 1 1.1.1 选题背景 ..................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ..................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 ................ 2 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ............. 2 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ............. 3 1.2.4 国内外研究述评 ......... 3 1.3 研究思路、内容与方法 .... 4 1.3.1 研究思路 ..................... 4 1.3.2 研究内容 ..................... 5 1.3.3 研究方法 ..................... 6 第二章 项目及开发商概述 ......... 7 2.1 项目背景 ............................ 7 2.1.2 项目区位情况 ............. 7 2.2.2 项目基本数据 ............. 9 2.2 项目规划设计 .................. 11 2.2.1 规划设计基本原则 ... 11 2.2.2 规划技术经济指标 ... 12 2.2.3 项目规划设计方案 ... 12 2.3 开发商概况 ...................... 16 2.4 本章小结 .......................... 18 第三章 项目投资环境分析 ....... 20 3.1 河源市经济环境分析 ...... 20 3.1.1 地理区位与经济发展现状 ...................... 20 3.1.2 城乡居民收入与消费现状 ...................... 21 V 3.1.3 房地产开发与投资现状 .......................... 22 3.2 河源市房地产市场分析 .. 23 3.2.1 土地市场分析 ........... 23 3.2.2 商品房市场分析 ....... 25 3.3 项目所在区域分析 .......... 27 3.3.1 项目周边教育配置 ... 27 3.3.2 周边地产板块与竞争项目 ...................... 27 3.4 本章小结 .......................... 32 第四章 项目开发的SWOT分析及市场定位......... 33 4.1 项目开发SWOT分析 ..... 33 4.1.1 优势分析 ................... 33 4.1.2 劣势分析 ................... 34 4.1.3 机会分析 ................... 35 4.1.4 威胁分析 ................... 35 4.2 项目定位分析 .................. 36 4.2.1 项目综合定位 ........... 36 4.2.2 项目客户定位 ........... 37 4.2.3 项目价格定位 ........... 38 4.3 本章小结 .......................... 39 第五章 项目开发的经济效益评价 .......................... 40 5.1 项目投资分析 .................. 40 5.1.1 投资费用估算 ........... 40 5.1.2 开发费用估算 ........... 42 5.1.3 投资成本汇总 ........... 42 5.2 项目经济效益分析 .......... 43 5.2.1 开盘价格分析 ........... 43 5.2.1 销售收入分析 ........... 44 5.2.2 项目利润测算 ........... 46 5.2.3 投资评价分析 ........... 47 5.3 项目不确定性分析 .......... 48 VI 5.3.1 盈亏平衡点分析 ....... 48 5.3.2 敏感性分析 ............... 50 5.4 本章小结 .......................... 52 第六章 项目开发的风险分析与防控 ...................... 53 6.1 项目风险分析 .................. 53 6.1.1 政策风险分析 ........... 53 6.1.2 财务风险分析 ........... 54 6.1.3 开发风险分析 ........... 54 6.1.4 运营风险分析 ........... 55 6.2 项目风险防控 .................. 55 6.2.1 政策风险防控 ........... 55 6.1.2 财务风险防控 ........... 56 6.1.3 开发风险防控 ........... 57 6.1.4 运营风险防控 ........... 57 6.3 本章小结 .......................... 58 结 论 ............ 59