I 摘要 房地产项目具有投资额巨大、项目周期长、不确定因素多等特征，其成功的 关键取决于决策的正确与否。项目决策的依据是根据可行性研究理论对项目进行 科学的分析与预测。因此，必须加强和规范房地产项目可行性研究，采用科学的 投资决策方法，防投资隐患于未然。 LX 项目位于南岸区四公里，属于重庆市南岸区“十五”计划确定的三大住宅区 之一。本文利用可行性研究的一般理论结合自身的从业经验，通过对 LX 项目的一 宗国有拍卖地块的开发经营环境的市场调查分析，依据南岸区总体规划及目前市 场状况和对未来的预测，以及对周边主要同类竞争物业的比较后，对项目的可行 性与开发经营策划提出初步意见，并结合项目的特点优势，对项目进行了投资分 析、财务评价和风险分析，以期分析探讨该地块进行住宅开发经营的可能性。依 据本文的方案，项目总建筑面积 30 万平方米，项目总投资 49244.99 万元。经测算 项目财务净现值 10359.10 万元，项目财务内部收益率 31.11%，因此项目在经济上 具有较强的可行性。 本文通过理论结合实际的研究，说明了房地产项目可行性研究的一般流程， 它能够帮助我们在房地产开发过程中避免决策的盲目性，做到项目定位清晰、技 术安排合理、资金预算准确，加快企业资金利用。本文对于指导 LX 项目的开发具 有重要的实践意义，对其他房地产开发商开发项目时也具有一定的参考意义。 关键词：可行性研究，房地产，项目投资重庆大学硕士学位报告 英文摘要 II ABSTRACT The Real Estate projects have characteristic of huge total invest, long invest cycle, various kinds of uncertainty and so on, the key point to be successful is the legitimacy of strategy. Analysing and forecasting scientificly based on the feasibility research theory is the warrant of the decision making of a project. So, we have to reinforce and standardize the feasibility research on Real Estate projects to adopt scientific investment strategy, and keep away invest risk. The LX Item in Nan’an 4 kilometre belongs to one of the three new residential districts which confirmed by the “Fifteenth Plan”of Chongqing. This paper dispends knowledge’s from Feasibility Research, combining practical experience. After giving a market research analysis to the development and management environment of one auction area owned to Nation and comparing to the mostly similar competitive residential districts nearby. According to the present state of the market and forecast of the future, then this article gives the LX Item an analysis of investment, an appraising of finance and an analysis of risks in order to discuss the probability to develop and manage. In light of the program planed in this article, the project will be 300,000 architecture acreage square meters and the total investment will be 492.4499 million Yuan. After calculating, the project will obtain profit 103.5910 million in finance, and the internal rate of return is 31.11%. So the project is probability and adaptive to develop and manage. This paper demonstrates the normal steps of the feasibility research on Real Estate projects through theory combining practice. It can help us avoid decision-making on the Real Estate development arbitrarily, we are able to orientate the project plainly, arrange technique reasonably, and budget capital exactly to increase the use of capital. It supplies an important practical value for the development of LX Item, it also supplies some referenced value for other Real Estate developers. Keywords: feasibility research, real estate, project investment重庆大学硕士学位报告 目 录 III 目 录 中文摘要.........................................................................................................................................I 英文摘要........................................................................................................................................II 1 绪 论........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 报告研究的目的和意义........................................................................................................... 1 1.2 可行性研究的概念和作用介绍............................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 可行性研究的概念 ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2.2 可行性研究的步骤 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2.3 房地产可行性研究的内容 ................................................................................................ 3 1.3 报告的主要内容及结构安排................................................................................................... 5 2 项目概况介绍........................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 项目所在区域的基本状况....................................................................................................... 6 2.2 项目开发单位简介................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 项目所在区域的环境分析....................................................................................................... 7 2.3.1 投资地块的环境分析 ........................................................................................................ 7 2.3.2 区域开发环境分析 ............................................................................................................ 8 2.4 项目所在区域的历年房价变动情况..................................................................................... 10 2.5 项目所在区域消费者需求调查............................................................................................. 10 2.6 项目主要技术指标................................................................................................................. 12 3 投资项目的开发经营环境分析 ................................................................................ 13 3.1 国内经济及房地产市场分析................................................................................................. 13 3.1.1 国内宏观经济状况 .......................................................................................................... 13 3.1.2 房地产开发业总体景气水平与房地产市场的特点....................................................... 13 3.2 重庆市房地产市场分析......................................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 重庆市 2004 年房地产市场基本情况............................................................................. 15 3.2.2 对未来重庆房地产市场发展的趋势预测....................................................................... 17 3.3 四公里片区开发现状及态势................................................................................................. 19 3.4 项目周边物业调查分析......................................................................................................... 20 3.5 小结......................................................................................................................................... 26 4 项目 SWOT 分析和市场定位 ................................................................................... 27 4.1 项目开发经营的 SWOT 分析............................................................................................... 27 4.1.1 项目开发经营优势 .......................................................................................................... 27重庆大学硕士学位报告 目 录 IV 4.1.2 项目开发经营劣势 .......................................................................................................... 27 4.1.3 项目开发经营机会 .......................................................................................................... 28 4.1.4 项目开发经营威胁 .......................................................................................................... 28 4.2 项目市场定位......................................................................................................................... 29 4.2.1 定位背景 .......................................................