随着经济、科技和社会的发展和进步，电力安全、清洁供应与人类生产、生活及需 求的关系越来越密不可分，电力紧急突发事件对社会安全、企业损失、家庭困扰、个人 不便等诸多影响日益增大，特别是自然灾害下的电力突发事件，对供电企业防灾减灾应 急管理提出了持久的挑战。快速、安全、有效处置电力突发事件，尽可能地减少、减轻 和避免电力突发事件造成的负面影响和经济损失，是人民群众、党和政府对安全、绿色、 智慧电力能源的要求，也是供电企业践行“人民电业为人民”、健康可持续发展的迫切需 求。建立科学、实用、规范的应急能力评估标准，提升供电企业各层级应急工作组织、 指挥、协同、保障等专业化水平就显得十分必要。 本文分析了国内外应急能力评价现状，按照国家电网“三型两网”战略驱动，“互联 网+”、泛在电力物联网、双重预防管理（安全风险预防和隐患排查治理）等新事物、标 准、体系、架构、概念等进行融合，结合供电企业防灾减灾应急能力建设的实际情况和 现行诸多影响要素，设置评价指标及构建评估模型，通过数学算法明确各指标的权重， 并基于模糊综合评价法对其指标进行公平、客观、科学的效果评估分析，并对评估结果 进行综合研判。本文最后以国网宝鸡供电公司防灾减灾应急的真实案例进行分析、梳理， 来验证评估体系模型的有效性、真实性和合理性，通过判别国网宝鸡供电公司在应急管 理工作中的亮点、特色之处，以及今后尚待改进、完善的薄弱环节。研究成果对供电企 业防灾减灾应急能力评估梳理了新思路，提供了切实可行的理论依据及方法，有效提升 供电企业的防灾减灾应急能力，对提高供电企业的应急准备标准化、预防化，应急响应 的实战化、协同化具有重要的可参考价值。 关键词：供电企业；防灾减灾；应急能力；评估 研究类型：专题研究 Subject：ResearchonPre-projectCostManagementEvaluationSystemof Power Specialty：MasterOfBusinessAdministration Name：Fengtao(Signature）) Instructor：Zhanghongli(Signature)1 ABSTRACT Withthedevelopmentandprogressofeconomy,technologyandsociety,the relationshipofpowersecurityandcleanlinesssupplyandhumanproductivity,andlifeand requirementbecomecloserandcloserandcan’tbedivided..ThePowerEmergencyIncident, suchassocietysecurity,lossofenterprise,puzzledfamily,theinconvenienceofindividuals andforthandsoon,isgrowingobviously,especiallypoweremergenciesundernatural disasters,bywhichpowersupplyenterprises’emergencymanagementofdisasterprevision andreductionischallengedpermanently.Therequirementofgreenandintelligencepower energiesfromthemasses,partyandgovernmentisthedispositionofpoweremergency incidentwithspeed,securityandefficiencybypowersupplyenterprises,andalso,apressing requirementofpractising“powerforpeople”andhealthyandsustainabledevelopment.Itisof greatimportancetoestablishascientific,practicalandnormativeassessmentstandardof emergencyhandlingcapabilityandimprovetheprofessionalleveltoorganize,conduct, cooperate,andguaranteetheemergencyoperationofalllevelsofthepowersupplyenterprise. Thispaperanalyzesthecurrentsituationofemergencycapabilityevaluationathomeand abroad,accordingto“ThreePatternsTwoNets”strategydrivesofStateGridCorporationof China,including“Internet+”,ubiquitouselectricitypowerInternetofthings,dualprecaution management(securityriskprecautionandhiddentroubleshootgoverning)withtheemerging ofnewthings,standard,system,frameworkandconception,combiningwithactualsituation ofconstructionofdisasterpreventionandreductioncapabilityandmanyprevailing influencingfactors,settingassessmentIndicatorS,bythemathematicalmethodstoensurethe weightofeachindicator,basedonFuzzyComprehensiveEvaluationtohaveeffective assessmentanalysisoftheindexwithfair,objectivenessandscience,andsyntheticallystudy andjudgetheassessmentresult.Finally,thepaperanalyzesandcombstherealcaseof preventingdisastersandreducingdamagesemergencycapacityofpowersupplycompanyof Baoji,toverifythevalidity,realityandrationalityoftheAssessmentSystemModel,by distinguishingthelightspot,prominentplaceoftheemergencymanagementinBaojiPower SupplyCompanyofChinaGridCorporationandtheweaknessestobeimprovedand perfected.Theresearchresultprovidesanewthoughttoassessandcombtheemergency capabilityofpowersupplyenterprisetopreventdisastersandreducedamages,andpractical andpracticabletheoreticalbasisandmethodsthateffectivelyimprovespreventingdisasters andreducingdamagesemergencycapacityofpowersupplycompanies,andsignificant referencevalueofstandardizationandprecautionofemergencypreparednessinpowersupply enterprisesandactualcombatandcoordinationofemergencyresponse. Keywords:Powersupplycompany;Preventingdisastersandreducingdamages;Emergency capacity;Assessment ResearchType:Monographicresearch 目录 I 目录 1绪论.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景和意义..............................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景.....................................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义.....................................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究现状...............................................................................................................3 1.2.1应急文献计量分析.....................................................................................................3 1.2.2应急管理研究现状.....................................................................................................7 1.2.3应急能力评估研究现状...........................................................................................11 1.2.4文献评述...................................................................................................................13 1.3研究内容及思路............................................................................................................14 1.3.1研究内容...................................................................................................................14 1.3.2研究框架...................................................................................................................14 1.3.3研究方法...................................................................................................................15 2供电企业防灾减灾应急能力综述.......................................................................................17 2.1防灾减灾概念内涵........................................................................................................17 2.1.1防灾减灾类型..........................................................................................................17 2.1.2供电企业防灾减灾主要类型..................................................................................18 2.2应急能力概述................................................................................................................21 2.3应急能力评估................................................................................................................27 3供电企业防灾减灾应急能力关键因素分析.......................................................................29 3.1应急能力影响因素辨识................................................................................................29 3.1.1供电企业应急现状..................................................................................................29 3.1.2应急能力影响因素..................................................................................................29 3.2应急能力关键因素确定................................................................................................32 4供电企业防灾减灾应急能力评估指标体系构建...............................................................37 4.1指标体系构建原则........................................................................................................37 4.2指标体系构建................................................................................................................38 5供电企业防灾减灾应急能力评估模型建立.......................................................................41 5.1指标权重确定方法的选择............................................................................................41 5.2层次分析法......................