“一带一路”战略的提出，为河北省物流业的发展带来了新的机遇。文章首 先分析了河北省物流业发展现状并指出所存在的问题。其次运用 DEA 的 CCR 和 BCC 模型，计算了 2003 年到 2016 年河北省物流效率，且与辽宁等七个省市 2012 年到 2016 年期间的物流效率进行了比较分析，将总技术效率分解为规模效率和纯 技术效率，分析影响河北省物流业总技术效率的原因。再次，基于 MALMQUIST 指数对河北省不同年份物流效率进行对比，动态分析河北省物流效率变化情况。 然后，运用 TOBIT 模型分析物流专业人才、物流资源利用率、中欧班列的开放、 经济发展水平、产业结构、区位因素、物流资金投入和对外开放程度对河北省物 流效率的影响。研究发现，与其他省市相比，河北省物流效率较为良好，但不是 最优，有待提高；这些影响因素按照影响力由高到低依次为，中欧班列的开放、 区位因素、经济发展水平、对外开放程度、物流专业人才、物流资金投入和物流 资源利用率，其中物流资金投入对河北省物流效率起到负向作用，产业结构影响 不显著。最后，为河北省积极融入“一带一路”建设，提升物流效率，提出了加 大相关政策支持力度、统筹整合物流运输系统等对策。 关键词，一带一路；物流效率；提升对策；DEA 模型；TOBIT 回归模型Abstract The strategy of the Belt and Road brings new opportunities for the development of logistics industry in Hebei province. Firstly, this article analyses the current situation of logistics industry in Hebei Province. Secondly, this article not only calculates the logistics efficiency of Hebei province between 2003 and 2016, but also compares the logistics efficiency between 2012 and 2016 with Liaoning and other provinces, by the CCR and BCC models in the DEA. Through decomposing the technical efficiency into scale efficiency and pure technical efficiency, the paper explores which is the main reason that influences the technical efficiency of logistics in Hebei province. Thirdly, the MALMQUIT is used to compare the logistics efficiency in different years，analyzing the change of logistics efficiency in Hebei province. Lastly, the paper uses TOBIT model to analyze the main influencing factors that affect the efficiency, which are logistics personnel, the utilization rate of logistics resources, the opening of train lines between China and Europe, the level of economic development, industrial structure, the location factors, the investment of logistics, and the level of foreign trade. The study finds that the logistics efficiency in Hebei Province is good, but is not the best, comparing with other provinces and cities. According to the influence level, these influencing factors that affect logistics efficiency are linked: the opening of train lines between China and Europe, the location factors, the level of economic development, the level of foreign trade, logistics personnel, the investment of logistics and the utilization rate of logistics resources, and the investment of logistics plays a negative role in logistics efficiency of Hebei province, the location factors don’t greatly impact the logistics efficiency of Hebei province. Lastly, the paper provides some measures for the logistics efficiency in Hebei province, such as increasing the support of relevant policy, coordinating logistics transport system and so on. Keywords: “The Belt and Road”, Logistics efficiency, Promotion strategy, DEA model, TOBIT regression modelI 目 录 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................. 1 一、研究背景及意义............................................................................................. 1 （一）研究背景................................................................................................. 1 （二）研究意义................................................................................................. 2 二、文献综述......................................................................................................... 3 （一）关于“一带一路”战略的研究............................................................. 3 （二）关于智慧物流等理论的研究................................................................. 4 （三）关于物流效率的研究............................................................................. 5 （四）文献评述................................................................................................. 7 三、研究方法与研究思路..................................................................................... 8 （一）研究方法................................................................................................. 8 （二）研究思路................................................................................................. 8 四、本文创新点................................................................................................... 10 第二章 物流相关理论分析......................................................................................11 一、物流产业及物流效率的概念界定................................................................11 （一）物流产业的内涵....................................................................................11 （二）物流效率的内涵....................................................................................11 二、物流效率评价方法及选择............................................................................11 （一）物流效率评价主要方法........................................................................11 （二）数据包络分析法................................................................................... 12 三、物流效率的影响因素................................................................................... 13 （一）内部因素............................................................................................... 13 （二）外部因素............................................................................................... 14 第三章 “一带一路”视域下河北省物流业发展现状......................................... 17 一、河北省物流业所取得的成绩....................................................................... 17 （一）发展水平提升 物流需求增加............................................................. 17 （二）物流基础设施建设不断完善............................................................... 18II （三）京津冀区域物流协同发展................................................................... 20 （四）物流与现代信息技术不断融合........................................................... 20 二、存在的问题................................................................................................... 21 （一）物流成本偏高....................................................................................... 21 （二）物流专业人才缺乏............................................................................... 22 （三）物流信息化建设水平较低................................................................... 22 第四章 河北省物流效率评价............................................................................... 24 一、评价指标体系的建立和数据的选取........................................................... 24 （一）构建评价指标体系的原则................................................................... 24 （二）本文建立的评价指标体系................................................................... 25 （三）样本数据的选取................................................................................... 26 二、河北省物流效率的实证评价....................................................................... 27 （一）评价指标的描述性统计....................................................................... 27 （二）DEA 模型的选用.................................................................................. 27 （三）实证结果分析....................................................................................... 31 （四）基于 MALMQUIST 指数的物流效率分析......................................... 36 第五章“一带一路”视域下河北省物流效率影响因素实证分析....................... 37 一、TOBIT 模型介绍 .......................................................................................... 37 二、河北省物流效率影响因素的度量............