随着全民创业浪潮兴起，室内儿童游乐园项目成为热门的创业项目之一，尤其对于没有 创业经验的初创业者来说，风险相对较小。但在我对室内儿童游乐园项目进行考察的过程中 发现，不少投资人因为认识不到项目建设前期可行性分析论证的重要性，他们依靠良好的愿 望、想当然、凭感觉做决定，导致许多项目的投资资金如泥牛入海，项目投资失败。本报告 站在投资者的角度，在借助国内外投资经济可行性理论的基础上，结合国内儿童室内游乐园 项目发展现状，分析了儿童室内游乐园项目投资决策面临的主要问题，并通过一定的技术手 段解决这些问题。 本报告在参考一般工业项目与主题公园项目可行性研究成果的基础上，并运用项目可行 性研究理论和手段，对该项目的投资环境、财务经济状况、建设方案比选、项目风险进行了 详细的分析和论证，达到对项目遇到的投资问题进行科学的决策和抉择的目标。文章从宏观 环境和微观环境两个方面对项目投资环境进行了分析论证，并运用市场预测理论对客源规模 进行预测，通过调查和类似项目比较的方法对项目市场进行了定位，并为项目的营销阶段制 定了价格策略；文章又运用了可行性研究相关理论知识确定了项目的建设规模、建设地址， 并进行建设方案比选；文章应用财务分析相关理论知识从财务的角度论证项目的可行性；最 后运用项目风险管理的理论和技术措施分析和评估项目的风险。运用专家评分法、预先分析 法（PHA）、层次分析法（AHP）构建项目风险体系，并按照项目风险的权重对项目风险因 素进行内部风险排序，然后，根据风险分析评价结果制定风范防范措施。 根据本报告的研究结果综合评价，某室内儿童游乐园项目具有一定的市场前景和客源规 模，项目的抗通胀能力较好，整体偿债能力较好，能够达到预期投资收益率，综合各项指标 分析，本文得出某室内儿童游乐园项目可行的结论。 关键词，儿童室内游乐园；可行性研究；风险分析；层次分析法（AHP）北京理工大学工程硕士学位报告 II Abstract Under the background of Entrepreneurial innovation，indoor kids’ amusement project has become one of the popular entrepreneurial projects. Especially for entrepreneurs who dont have the entrepreneurial experience, the risk is relatively small. But I found many people do not understand the importance of feasibility study on the project in the early stage when I study indoorkids’ amusement project. Many people thought that the reality was as good as they thought, so they made a hasty investment decisions with no feasibility study. And then the result of investment decision was always so bad, economic loss was unavoidable. This paper do something for investors, by using the economic feasibility of domestic and foreign investment, considering the development status of the domestic indoorkids’amusementproject,themainproblemsoftheinvestmentdecisiononthechildren'sindoor amusement park are analyzed, and the problems are solved by some technical means. At last, this paper applied project risk management theory and technical measure. This paper reference some feasibility study results on the general industrial projects and the theme park project , and used some project feasibility study theory and method, analyzed the investment environment, financial and economic conditions, alternative option and project rick of the project. This paper achieved the goal of scientific decision-making and choice of the investment problems encountered in the project. This paper analyzes the investment environment of the project from two aspects: the macro environment and the micro environment, forecasted the tourist source scale by using the market survey theory. The project market positioning was found by using the method of investigation and similar projects comparison. And this paper made a price strategy for the marketing stage of the project. In this paper, the theory of feasibility study is used to determine the scale, construction address and construction scheme of the project. This paper discusses the feasibility of the project by using the theory of financial analysis. This paper analyzes and evaluates the project risk by using project risk management theory and technical measures. This paper applied the expert scoring method, the pre analysis method（PHA）and the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） to construct the project risk system, and made an internal risk ranking according to the importance of project risk factors. Finally, this paper formulate preventive measures according to the risk analysis and evaluation results of the model. According to the research results of this paper, the indoor kids’ amusement project has a certain market prospects and a big scale of the passenger source, the project has better anti-inflation ability, better overall solvency, be able to achieve the expected return on investment. By analyzing all北京理工大学工程硕士学位报告 III indicators of the project, this paper concluded that the indoorkids’amusementproject is feasible. KeyWords:indoorkids’amusementproject;feasibilitystudy;riskanalysis;APH.北京理工大学工程硕士学位报告 IV 目录 第 1 章 绪论 ..................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景和目的 ..........................................................1 1.2 已有研究成果简述 ..........................................................2 1.3 报告主要研究内容 ..........................................................3 第 2 章 某室内游乐园项目概述及进行可行性研究的必要性...................5 2.1 某室内儿童游乐园项目概述...................................................5 2.2 某室内儿童游乐园项目可行性研究的必要性.....................................9 第 3 章 某室内儿童游乐园项目的市场分析...................................11 3.1 宏观环境分析 .............................................................11 3.1.1 政治环境............................................................11 3.1.2 人口政策............................................................16 3.1.3 消费水平............................................................12 3.1.4 国内外行业现状分析..................................................12 3.2 项目市场调查分析 .........................................................16 3.2.1 市场调查............................................................18 3.2.2 项目建设目标........................................................19 3.2.3 客源市场定位........................................................24 3.2.4 项目客源预测........................................................24 3.2.5 价格策略............................................................25 3.3 本章小结 .................................................................26 第 4 章 某室内儿童游乐园项目的建设条件分析..............................27 4.1 项目建设地址比选 .........................................................27北京理工大学工程硕士学位报告 V 4.2 建设方案比选 .............................................................28 4.3 建设面积测算 .............................................................30 4.4 本章小结 .................................................................32 第 5 章 某室内儿童内游乐园项目的财务分析 ................................33 5.1 某室内儿童游乐园项目建设成本组成 .........................................34 5.2 建设投资估算 .............................................................35 5.3 财务评价编制分析 .........................................................36 5.3.1 贷款利息估算........................................................36 5.3.2 营业收入、营业税金及附加和增值税估算................................37 5.3.3 固定资产折旧费估算表................................................38 5.3.4 工资及福利费估算表..................................................39 5.3.5 项目总成本费用以及经营成本估算......................................40 5.3.6 项目投资现金流量表..................................................40 5.3.7 利润及利润分配表....................................................40 5.3.8 资产负债表..........................................................41 5.3.9 财务盈利能力分析....................................................42 5.3.10 偿债能力分析.......................................................43 5.4 本章小结 .................................................................44 第 6 章 某室内儿童游乐园项目的风险分析...................................46 6.1 某室内儿童游乐园项目风险分析的思路 .......