I 苏州小型汽车限牌政策可行性研究——以姑苏区为例 中文摘要 近年来，随着苏州市经济上的持续发展，私家车保有量不断攀升，道路交通 拥堵状况不断加剧。为了解决人民群众对交通方面日益增长的实际需求和交通实 际发展状况不平衡不充分之间的矛盾。本文力求探索出解决这一矛盾的具体实施 方案。文章中列出了苏州目前主要采取的交通治理措施，具体包括政府总体的规 划、智能交通、绿色出行、单行道、限行意见稿、交警纠违及停车场资源的开发 利用等等。我们通过民意调查，发现即使采取了上述交通治理措施，苏州市姑苏 区交通出行情况仍不能让人十分满意，在此基础上我们探讨了对小型汽车限牌的 可能性。同时我们也利用交通模型的搭建，对姑苏区交通整体状况进行了量化评 价，另外也对姑苏区交通发展前景作出了预测。 在大胆提出了“限牌令”想法后，我们对国内相关城市限牌政策进行了分析， 主要涉及到产生的背景、过程、实施方式以及相关经验及教训。在此基础上，我 们对苏州市姑苏区小型汽车限牌政策的出台提出了自己的分析，包括在公民权利 的保护、争议化解、地域特征、人员构成、交通模型、停车场规划等方面进行了 深入的探讨。最后，笔者提出了自己的看法及相关结论。 本文通过理论分析和调查问卷方式，探讨了对苏州市姑苏区小型汽车进行限 牌的可行性。这在某种程度上为苏州交通拥堵状况的缓解打开了思路，探讨了方 法，提供了解决路径。 关键词：矛盾 限牌令 民意 交通模型 作 者：季 骥 指导老师：叶战备英文摘要 苏州小型汽车限牌政策可行性研究——以姑苏区为例 II Feasibility study on the policy of small car licence restrictions in Suzhou district ——Take the gusu district for example Abstract In recent years, with the sustainable development of Suzhou city economic, people's demand for traffic on growing, and it also highlighted the urban traffic in the conflict between supply and demand. In order to solve the people to transport the actual demand of the growing traffic actual development condition are not balance the contradiction between the inadequate. This article tries to explore the concrete implementation plan of the solution of the contradiction. Article lists the Suzhou mainly traffic management measures, including the government overall planning, intelligent transportation, green travel, one-way street, limit line of paper and a car park, the traffic police struggle spare resources development and utilization, and so on. We through the poll, found that even the traffic management measures, Suzhou gusu area transportation is still can't let people very satisfied, on this basis, we discussed the possibility of card limit on small cars. At the same time, we also use the construction of the traffic model, gusu area traffic overall situation for the quantitative evaluation, and also to gusu area traffic development prospects are also predicted. In bold card limit idea, we analyses the related domestic city brand policy limited, mainly involves the background, process, implementation methods and related experience and lessons. On this basis, we limit on Suzhou gusu area small car brand policy put forward its own analysis, including in the protection of civil rights, dispute resolving, regional characteristic, artificial, parking lot planning structure, traffic model and so on has carried on the thorough discussion.苏州小型汽车限牌政策可行性研究——以姑苏区为例 英文摘要 III Finally, the author puts forward his own views and the related conclusion. Through theoretical analysis and the way of questionnaire, this paper discusses on the Suzhou gusu area small cars to the limit of the feasibility of the card. This to some extent for Suzhou to alleviate traffic congestion opened the train of thought, this paper discusses the method, provides a way to solve. Key words: Contradiction,Limit order,Public opinion,Traffic model Written by:Jiji Supervised by:Yezhanbei目 录 一、前 言...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究意义 ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 理论意义 ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 现实意义 ..................................................................................................... 2 1.2 研究方法 ............................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 文献研究法 ................................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 问卷调查法 ................................................................................................. 2 1.2.3 经验总结法 ................................................................................................. 3 1.3 研究内容 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.4 文献综述 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.4.1 国内研究 ..................................................................................................... 3 1.4.2 国外研究 ..................................................................................................... 5 1.5 创新之处与不足 ................................................................................................ 6 二、苏州姑苏区小型汽车限牌政策的必要性.............................................................. 8 2.1 苏州姑苏区公共交通现行体系建设 ................................................................ 8 2.1.1 苏州姑苏区轨道交通建设现状 ................................................................. 8 2.1.2 苏州姑苏区智慧交通设计状况 ................................................................. 8 2.1.3 苏州姑苏区绿色出行程度 ....................................................................... 10 2.2 苏州姑苏区车辆出行的主要问题 .................................................................. 11 2.2.1 道路拥堵引发的时间成本 ....................................................................... 11 2.2.2 交通事故多发带来的经济成本 ............................................................... 11 2.2.3 尾气排放带来的环境成本 ....................................................................... 11 2.3 姑苏区是苏州采取小型汽车限牌政策的首选区域 ...................................... 12 三、苏州姑苏区小型汽车限牌政策实行的现有条件................................................ 14 3.1 民意调查 .......................................................................................................... 14 3.1.1 人员构成背景 ........................................................................................... 143.1.2 交通出行的相关调查 ............................................................................... 16 3.1.3 调查数据分析 ........................................................................................... 18 3.2 苏州姑苏区小型汽车限牌政策实施的可行性 .............................................. 21 3.2.1 实施原则 ................................................................................................... 21 3.2.2 实施主体 ................................................................................................... 21 3.2.3 实施客体 ................................................................................................... 22 3.2.4 实施内容 ................................................................................................... 22 四、苏州姑苏区小型汽车限牌政策面临的风险与困境............................................ 24 4.1 法律依据存在争议 .......................................................................................... 24 4.2 民意基础并不牢固 .......................................................................................... 25 4.3 对经济的不利影响 .......................................................................................... 26 4.4 存在替代的治堵方案 ...................................................................................... 26 4.5 实施过程的不确定性 ...................................................................................... 31