¡£Table of Contents2019 Surprise Packages 2Overview 3Summary Tables 4Company PagesCompany Analyst contactAB InBevsanjeet.aujla@credit-suisse 6AP Moller Maersk neil.glynn@credit-suisse 8AXA farooq.hanif@credit-suisse 10Danone alan.erskine@credit-suisse 12Deutsche Bank jon.peace@credit-suisse 14EDP stefano.bezzato@credit-suisse 16Electrolux andre.kukhnin@credit-suisse 18JD Sports szilvia.bor@credit-suisse 20Nokia & Ericsson achal.sultania@credit-suisse 22Recordati jo.walton@credit-suisse 24Rentokil andy.grobler@credit-suisse 26SSE mark.freshney@credit-suisse 28Telecom Italia jakob.bluestone@credit-suisse 30Porsche & Volkswagen daniel.schwarz.2@credit-suisse 32Weir Group max.yates@credit-suisse 34Credit Suisse HOLT Perspective darshana.ramji@credit-suisse 372019 Surprise Packages 3Stocks to watch in 2019. The focus of this stock picking report for 2019 is on identifying drivers of potential¡°corporate change¡±and effectivelyreprising the successful theme of our report ¡°Stocks for 2018: Surprise Packages¡±, from last year. With our strategists adopting a cautious approachto 2019 with limited upside projected for global markets from current levels, amidst a tougher background for profit growth (see Global EquityStrategy - 2019 Outlook: Equities, Regions and Macro), what companies can do to drive profitability and shareholder value through their own meansbecomes a more distinguishing feature.¡°Agents of change¡±. In selecting potential ¡°corporate change¡± candidates for 2019, our analysts consider potential M&A, a business portfolio shift,new management/business model or a structural change in the dynamics for a given company. However, the accent is on looking for potentialsurprises around our teams¡¯ prevailing core views ¨C whether the ¡°Blue Sky¡± scenarios for Outperform ratings or how a shift in management strategycould confront an existing Neutral rating. We have articulated the case in both words and pictures in this slide deck, with four key charts to portraythe investment story.Our surprise packages. The Outperforms in our 2019 stock list are AB InBev, AP Moller Maersk, AXA, Danone, Electrolux, JD Sports,Nokia, Rentokil, SSE, Porsche/VW and Weir Group and Neutral rated are Deutsche Bank, EDP, Ericsson, Recordati and Telecom Italia.They all reflect a wide range of drivers akin to those defined as ¡°corporate change¡± set out above with upside scenarios in some cases reaching up toc80%. Clearly, the Outperform-rated names remain our strongest calls with the base case sufficient to justify their rating rather than a reliance on a¡°what if¡± outturn. Credit Suisse HOLT ¡°sense check¡±. We provide Credit Suisse HOLT market implied scenarios for each of the stocks covered in this report tojudge the embedded consensus expectations for profitability from a valuation perspective. VW, JD Sports, Electrolux, EDP, and Weir reflect theleast demanding expectations. More generally, two-thirds of the stocks would fall into the ¡°value¡± category from a HOLT scorecard perspective withthe group generally reflecting ¡°restructuring¡± or ¡°contrarian¡± characteristics style-wise. However, we would stress in terms of the company ¡°tearsheets¡± shown, and therelated output, HOLT is assessing the stocks in steady-state terms rather than using our analyst scenarios.Stocks for 2019: Surprise PackagesSource: Credit Suisse estimates, Pricing throughout this report is as of 17 January 2019except for JD Sports and AXA (as of 18 January 2019)Company Sector M.Cap US$ bn CS Rating Price Target Price What could change in 2019Anheuser-BuschInBev Beverages 143.2 O € 62.63€ 82.00 Brazil may deliver volume growth due to improving macro backdrop and competitive pressures could ease as Heineken exitsthe Coke bottling distribution agreement. This implies a potential fair value of up to €100 and c37% upside.AP MollerMaersk Industrials 26.8 ODkr8734.00Dkr9629.00Potential benefits of changing the business model towards providing global logistics solution for its customers (including non- ocean services). We estimate a potential ¡®Blue Sky¡¯ fair value of DKK14,231 with upside potential of c63%.AXA Financials 53.2 O € 20.56 € 25.00We expect AXA to reduce its holding of its US life insurance subsidiary,take measures to reduce the volatility of its lossesand start extracting synergies from its acquisitions. A Blue Sky case for this stock trading at c€28 suggests c36% potentialupside.Danone Consumer Staples 48.3 O € 61.90€ 74.00Vulnerable to activist investors calling for a demerger; a sale of all or part of its Water business at an attractive take-outmultiple given peer transactions. Our price target of €74 indicates upside potential of 20%, and assumes managementmonetizes the Water business. Deutsche Bank Financials 18.4 N € 7.82€ 8.50 Synergy potential from an in-market consolidation as weakness in DBK equity and debt instruments has prompted discussions for a potential solution. We estimate 20% EPS and stock price accretion if DB paid 0.6x TBV for CBK.EDP Utilities 12.7 N € 3.06€3.20In CTG¡¯s bid for EDP and EDPR, the authorization phase could lead to 1) CTG having to sell part of EDP¡¯s assets; 2) arevised offer; or 3) new potential bidders emerging. Adding a 15% control premium to our blended valuation would lead toc25% upside potential on the current share price. Electrolux Consumer Discretionary 6.4 O Skr 203.20Skr 220.00 Raw materials switching from a headwinds to a tailwind in H1 19, and increase in net cash could allow for capital return via share buyback or special dividends. Potential upside to the current share price could be c15%.JD Sports Consumer Discretionary 5.6 O 446.00 p500.00 pThe Group will start demonstrating that the acquisition to enter the US market will succeed where many have failed before asmajor brands shift their product allocations to FINL. Our Blue Sky scenario fair value for JD Sports of 615p is based on a PErerating to 17x (~2015-18 median) and EV/Sales of 1.04x. Potential upside to the share price could be 38%.Nokia/Ericsson Information Technology 33.5/ 27.5 O/N € 5.22/ Skr 75.90€ 6.25/Skr 82.00Security concerns around use of Huawei/ZTE in telco networks could cause share loss in developed markets which shouldbenefit Nokia and Ericsson. We estimate up to 30% upside potential to Nokia¡¯s TP and up to 40% for Ericsson in thisscenario.Recordati Health Care 7.3 N € 30.75 €30.00Potential changes could happen due to new ownership. Assuming a willingness to take on more debt, a steady supply ofdeals, and no loss of historic financialdiscipline on pricing assuming a doubling of M&A could drive EPS at 11%.This wouldsuggest a ¡®super blue sky¡® value of €45, based on 15x incremental EPS, indicating upside potential of c46%. Rentokil Industrials 8.2 O 344.10 p400.00 pPotential for outsourcing of Brazilian vector control programme and for larger scale consolidation in the American market,supporting operational synergies. We note that ServiceMaster and Rollins trade at 25.4 and 47x P/E respectively for 2019Ecompared to Rentokil at 22.64x.SSE Utilities 15.0 O 1126.00 p1225.00 p The company is likely to raise c. 1.5bn through disposals and spin-offs to restore the balance sheet. If we include the spin-off of the supply business, we could potentially get to a share price of 1430p, indicating potential upside of c27%.Telecom Italia Communication Services 9.4 N € 0.53€ 0.55 A separate netco has the potential to re-rate shares significantly given 1) a combination of TI netco with Open Fibre (OF); and 2) better wholesale regulation. We estimate that TI shares could go to €1.0 indicating c87% upside. Porsche/VolkswagenConsumerDiscretionary19.3/82.4 O/O€ 56.02 / € 142.90 € 93.00 / € 203.00We see the focus shifting away from volume growth and ¡®over engineering¡¯ to profitability and value creation, with the FY18special dividend surprising to the upside. In our Blue Sky scenario, we derive a fair value of €195 for Porsche using the BlueSky price from VW (€401) and we assume