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…得益于稳健的基本面和现金流的改善
我们认为上述三个行业的基本面均已改善，原因在于：1) 基建/房地产建设加速/
平稳推进，而且去产能进程推动大宗商品相关制造/采掘企业的利润率上升，以及
2)制造业资本支出的意愿或将触底回升，因为此番需求回暖与2012年之后的产
能扩建投资放缓相叠加，而且部分行业的产能利用率已回升至2012年之前的水
平
此外，近年来越发成为三大领域违约诱因的现金流问题应能继续改善，因为企业
的资产周转率加快，使之能够更好地及时偿债
在主要采矿业/制造业中，源于相互担保的风险蔓延问题依然稳定。随着企业盈利
能力/现金流改善以及外部担保的减少，整体相互担保风险敞口看起来依然有限并
且能够得到控制
我们看到各地表现分化，长三角引领复苏
虽然我们预计整体资产质量回升，但我们看到各地发展趋势有别。长三角地区的
改善速度应该最快，因其业务侧重高利润率行业、持续性的去杠杆而且资产周转
速度一直较快。如同意料之中，我们已经看到银行业在长三角地区的不良率降低
且企业贷款需求率先回升。而另一方面，虽然中国东北和西部地区的不良贷款存
量依然庞大且不良率仍在攀升，但增量情况已开始逐步复苏。随着当地杠杆率趋
于稳定、工业企业利润率回升且资产周转速度小幅提高，我们预计这些地区的新
增不良率应该会开始回落
*全文翻译随后提供
相关研究
中国：银行：
2017
年一季度前瞻：净息差如期扩张；资产负债表
结构是关键；上调重庆农商行评级至买入；
2017
年月日
中国：银行：深呼吸，整装再发：短期内运营状况的改善应能为
中国银行业摆脱困境创造空间；
2017
年月日
中国：银行：新增社会融资规模几乎翻倍，信贷需求保持强劲；
2017
年月日
杨硕, Ph.D （研究助理）+86(10)6627-3463 shuo.yang@ghsl 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企
业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当
考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视
本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要
信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系
唐伟城, CFA （分析师）执业证书编号: S1420517010001 +86(10)6627-3487 weicheng.tang@ghsl 北京高华证券有限责任公司
北京高华证券有限责任公司投资研究
2017年4月20日中国：银行
全球投资研究 2
Table of contents
We expect China bank outperformance on inflecting asset quality 3
Tracking the source of NPLs 5
Fundamentals: Construction/manufacturing FAI on recovery track 7
Cash flow: Quickening asset turnover improves debt serviceability 15
Contagion risk: Total risk exposure limited and manageable 17
Regional performance to diverge; YRD leading the recovery 18
Disclosure Appendix 21
Prices in this report are as of the April 18, market close unless indicated otherwise.
Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Tian Lu, CFA, Frank Shi, Lucy Li, Wendy Chen and
Katherine Liu of Goldman Sachs in the preparation of this product.
Exhibit 1: Valuation comparison
Note: *denotes stock is on our Conviction List. Currency for A/H shares in Rmb/HK$. Target prices are on a 12-month basis.
Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
2017E2018E2017E2018E2017E2018E2017E2018E2017E2018E2017E2018E
ICBC (H)1398.HK4.9334%BuyHK$6.6226,0345.4X5.2X0.7X0.7X3.1X2.7X5%5%15%14%1.2%1.1%BOC (H)3988.HK3.6523%NeutralHK$4.5138,2274.7X4.4X0.7X0.6X2.8X2.5X10%8%15%14%1.1%1.1%
CCB (H)0939.HK6.1429%NeutralHK$7.9197,4735.7X5.3X0.8X0.7X3.0X2.7X3%9%14%14%1.1%1.1%ABC (H)1288.HK3.5037%Buy*HK$4.8146,2374.7X4.2X0.7X0.6X2.7X2.3X18%12%16%16%1.1%1.1%
BoCom (H)3328.HK5.8318%SellHK$6.955,6965.5X5.4X0.6X0.6X3.1X2.8X4%2%12%11%0.8%0.8%CMB (H)3968.HK20.2530%NeutralHK$26.465,6986.3X5.8X1.0X0.9X2.7X2.4X16%8%16%16%1.2%1.1%
CNCB (H)0998.HK5.0128%NeutralHK$6.430,1544.7X4.4X0.6X0.5X1.7X1.6X11%7%12%12%0.7%0.7%CQRCB3618.HK5.3337%BuyHK$7.36,3774.7X4.1X0.8X0.7X2.6X2.2X18%14%17%17%1.1%1.1%
PSBC1658.HK4.8536%BuyHK$6.650,5568.2X7.2X0.9X0.8X5.0X4.1X-6%15%12%12%0.5%0.5%
ICBC (A)601398.SS4.7923%BuyRmb5.9247,9515.9X5.7X0.8X0.7X3.4X3.0X5%5%15%14%1.2%1.1%BOC (A)601988.SS3.5732%BuyRmb4.7152,6415.2X4.8X0.7X0.7X3.1X2.8X10%8%15%14%1.1%1.1%
CCB (A)601939.SS5.8323%BuyRmb7.2211,6956.1X5.6X0.8X0.8X3.2X2.9X3%9%14%14%1.1%1.1%ABC (A)601288.SS3.2731%BuyRmb4.3154,2554.9X4.4X0.8X0.7X2.8X2.4X18%12%16%16%1.1%1.1%
BoCom (A)601328.SS6.0110%NeutralRmb6.664,8236.4X6.2X0.7X0.7X3.6X3.3X4%2%12%11%0.8%0.8%CMB (A)600036.SS18.6019%NeutralRmb22.168,1306.5X6.0X1.0X0.9X2.8X2.5X16%8%16%16%1.2%1.1%
CNCB (A)601998.SS6.2526%BuyRmb7.942,4716.6X6.2X0.8X0.7X2.5X2.2X11%7%12%12%0.7%0.7%
SPDB600000.SS15.304%SellRmb15.945,5965.6X5.0X0.8X0.7X2.5X2.2X5%12%16%15%0.9%0.9%Industrial601166.SS15.563%SellRmb1643,0564.9X4.2X0.8X0.7X2.4X2.1X10%16%17%17%1.0%1.0%
PAB000001.SZ9.0516%NeutralRmb10.522,5706.7X6.4X0.8X0.7X2.0X1.9X3%6%12%12%0.7%0.7%Hua Xia600015.SS10.7024%NeutralRmb13.316,6074.8X4.6X0.7X0.7X2.5X2.3X14%6%16%15%0.9%0.8%
BONB002142.SZ16.7020%NeutralRmb20.19,4596.8X5.5X1.1X0.9X3.7X3.1X20%24%17%18%1.0%1.1%BONJ601009.SS10.9719%NeutralRmb13.19,6536.4X5.1X1.0X0.8X2.5X2.1X24%25%16%18%0.9%0.9%
Median (H)5.4X5.2X0.7X0.7X2.8X2.5X10%8%15%14%1%1%Median (A)6.1X5.5X0.8X0.7X
2.8X2.4X10%8%16%15%1%1%
P/BP/ETickerClosing
Price
Upside/
(Downside)Rating
Target
price
Market cap
(US$ mn)CompanyEPS growthROAEP/PPOPROAA
2017年4月20日中国：银行
全球投资研究 3
We expect China bank outperformance on inflecting asset quality
Selective credit events, such as those touched off by press reports about Shandong Qixing
Group’s potential default and SPDB’s Chengdu branch lending to shell companies of existing
clients, have caught recent headlines and pressured China bank stock price performance despite
an in-line result season with upbeat guidance.
In this report, we look into the details of banks’ loan asset quality in three dimensions…
…and conclude that while issues remain, asset quality has bottomed out, particularly in the
three sectors explaining c.70% of banks’ NPL: manufacturing, mining and wholesale & retail.
Historically China bank sector price performance has showed a strong correlation with
asset quality change, and we expect further asset quality recovery, reflected in a continued
NPL formation rate decline over the coming result seasons, to drive our coverage’s continued
outperformance. Specifically, we see that:
starts, combined with curtailed upstream capacity, should support mining and
commodity-related manufacturing companies’ profitability.
capital goods sector margin stabilization, resulting in and also evidenced by increasing
corp loan demand.
the ability to pay but happen to lack the cash, and help wholesale & retail profitability
given its high sensitivity to working capital requirements.
total inter-guarantee contagion risk exposure as still limited and manageable.
Region-wise, we expect fastest asset quality repair in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD)
given its already-low leverage and solid improvement in asset turnover. While NPL stock remains
large in other regions, particularly Northeast and West China, continued improvement in margin,
asset turnover and leverage should reduce incremental NPLs and help repair these regions’ asset
quality, though likely at a slower pace.
Exhibit 2: We see EBIT/finance cost coverage improving
across all major contributors of bank NPLs, as a result of
recovering fundamentals…
Exhibit 3: …and these sectors have
