摘要
从2005年7月我国进行汇率机制改革以来,人民币汇率一直保持升值趋势。
随着美国经济低迷,启动QE3的可能性不断加大,相应的人民币进一步升值的
可能性也在不断增加。根据一般的国际贸易理论,一国货币汇率变动对其进口
贸易有很大的影响。随着近几年我国铜消费量不断增加,铜冶炼企业的产能也
在不断扩张,铜精矿进口数量也在相应的逐年递增。因此,人民币汇率升值必
将更大程度的影响我国铜冶炼企业的原料进口。
本研究通过对人民币升值历史演进的介绍及升值原因的认真分析,推测出
人民币汇率变动的发展趋势,并在此基础上,结合我国铜冶炼企业产业链现状
及发展趋势,获取对研究问题的全面认识。同时运用现实推测、理论分析及实
证分析等研究手段,对人民币升值对我国铜冶炼企业原料进口影响进行全面分
析,得出如下研究结论:(1)人民币升值对铜冶炼企业原料进口数量有显著影响,
同时也存在很显著的滞后效应;(2)我国铜冶炼行业有可能已经脱离经济基本
面,盲目扩张产能;并根据所得研究结论,针对我国铜冶炼企业在原料进口的
实际操作中所存在的问题,提出富有针对性的政策建议,如(1)慎重制定合同
条款,灵活选择贸易合同;(2)合理选择融资渠道,保障铜精矿进口资金充裕;
(3)做好铜精矿存货保值设计;(4)通过联盟手段加强在铜产业链中的地位
关键词:人民币升值铜冶炼企业铜精矿进口人民币实际有效汇率指数

ff岛科技人学研究生学位论文

INFLUENCE RESEARCH ON IMPORTING COPPER

IN CHINA DUE TO RMB APPRECIATION

ABSTRACT

Since July 2005 the Chinese Government started the reform of the

exchange rate mechanism,RMB exchange rate appreciation trend has remained for a

long time. As the U.S. economy remains in the doldrums,the risk of implementing

QE3 to the U.S. government is increased. That has also increased the possibility of

further appreciation of the RMB. According to the general theory of international

business, Changes in a country's currency exchange rate have a great impact on the

country's import trade. As China's copper consumption is increasing in recent years,

the capacity of the copper smelting enterprises are constantly expanding and the

import quantity of Copper concentrate is also increasing year by year. So the RMB

exchange rate appreciation must play a more important role in the imports of raw

materials for Chinese copper smelting enterprises.

Through the careful introduction to the RMB appreciation history and the

analysis to the reasons of the RMB appreciation, this paper can speculate the

development trend of the RMB exchange rate changes. And on this basis, this paper

can have a comprehensive understanding of the research questions by studying the

industry chain status quo and development trend of the copper smelting enterprises

in China. At the same time by using the means of reality speculate, theoretical

analysis and empirical analysis, we can conduct a comprehensive analysis of the

impact of RMB appreciation on the imports of raw materials for China's copper

smelting enterprises. The paper draws the following conclusions : (1) RMB

appreciation has significant effects on the quantity of raw materials imported for

copper smelting enterprises and also has significant lag effects on it. (2) As the blind

expansion of production capacity, the Chinese copper smelting industry may have

been out of the economic fundamentals. Based on the conclusions obtained, this

paper can put forward corresponding policies for the problems in the actual

operation of the import raw materials imports for China's copper smelting enterprises.

For example, (1) be careful about the terms of the contract and has the flexibility to

choose trade contract. (2) The Chinese copper smelting enterprises should select

reasonable financing channels to make sure that they have enough money to import

copper concentrate. (3)The Chinese copper smelting industry should do a good

copper concentrate inventory hedge design against inflation. (4) The Chinese copper

smelting industry should adopt the Union means to strengthen its position in the

copper industry chain.

Keywords: RMB appreciation, Copper smelting enterprises, Imports of copper

concentrate, RMB real effective exchange rate index.