经营期望落差与企业投融资期限错配——基于企业生命周期视角
摘要
企业的投融资期限错配问题，即将短期债务用于长期投资，近年来越来越受
到关注。依据期限匹配理论，投资与融资决策应该符合期限相匹配的原则。期限
错配导致的经济后果是十分严重的，一旦企业内外部关于融资或者投资的某一环
节出现问题，就会使得企业资金链断裂，轻则企业陷入经营困顿，重则直接导致
企业资不抵债进入破产程序，甚至会引发连锁效应，让整个市场都有可能面临巨
大的流动性风险，故企业在日常经营中应注重投融资期限的匹配问题。此外，越
来越多的实际数据及实证研究显示，不止中小企业，许多大型企业都偏好于投融
资期限错配行为，使得这个问题更为复杂化。不单单从企业融资限制视角，更应
从企业战略决策视角即企业的主动意愿行为去深入考察这一问题。企业的绩效反
馈作为对企业战略调整有重大影响的因素之一，尤其是当实际绩效与期望绩效存
在落差时，会影响到企业的投融资期限错配程度。
本文在对当前我国企业经营应期望落差和投融资期限错配问题的背景以及
研究现状进行了分析以后，以 2006-2019年度我国 A股非金融上市公司数据为研
究样本，进行了以下研究。（1）检验了我国企业投融资期限错配问题的存在性，
并深入检验了企业处于各个生命周期时，期限错配问题存在程度。研究结果发现
我国企业在生命周期各个阶段普遍存在较为严重的期限错配问题，并且成熟期企
业投融资的期限错配问题最为严重。（2）重点研究了经营期望落差对企业投融
资期限错配的影响。本文的研究结果表明企业存在经营期望落差时会加剧期限错
配问题，并且在成长期企业中最为显著，成熟期企业次之，但在衰退期企业中无
明显作用。（3）本文从外部环境视角，检验了货币政策以及银行业竞争对二者
关系的调节作用。研究结果发现，货币政策只在成熟期企业中对期望落差与期限
错配的关系起到显著的负向调节作用；银行业竞争只在成长期企业中对期望落差
与期限错配的关系起到显著的负向调节作用。（4）本文开展了进一步研究。首
先是对代理成本作用机制的检验，基于企业生命周期的研究结果得出，其只在成
熟期企业中发挥了作用。其次，对经营期望顺差与企业投融资期限错配展开了研
究，发现期望顺差不会加剧成长期和成熟期企业的期限错配程度，对成熟期企业
有缓解作用，但在衰退期企业中，经营期望顺差能够加剧期限错配程度。
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经营期望落差与企业投融资期限错配——基于企业生命周期视角
对从企业主动意愿视角下，关于投融资期限错配的影响因素研究进行了拓展，
并加入了企业生命周期的考察。此外，纳入了外部环境的调节作用，代理成本在
其中发挥的作用机制以及业绩期望顺差的补充性研究。
关键词：经营期望落差；期限错配；企业生命周期
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经营期望落差与企业投融资期限错配——基于企业生命周期视角
Abstract
The problem of maturity mismatch which means the short-term debt to long-term
investment, is received more and more attention in recent years. The economic
consequences of maturity mismatch are very serious. The capital chain of the
company will be broken once the internal and external problems of financing or
investment occur in a certain link. The company will fall into business distress at the
best times. If the worst happens, it will lead to insolvency directly and even trigger a
chain effect so that the whole market may face huge liquidity risks. Therefore,
companies should attach importance to the problem of maturity mismatch in daily
operation. In addition, the problem is more complicated because of the growing
number of actual data and the empirical research show that many large companies
prefer the decision of maturity mismatch besides small and medium-sized companies.
Not only from the perspective of company financing constraints, but also from the
perspective of corporate strategic, the active behavior of company, to think about this
problem. Performance feedback, as one of the factors that have a significant impact on
corporate strategy decision adjustment, will affect the degree of investment and
financing term mismatch when there is an aspiration gap between actual performance
and expected performance especially.
After analyzing the background and research status of the aspiration gap and
investment and financing maturity mismatch in China, this paper selects the data of
China's A-share non-financial listed companies from 2006 to 2019, the following
research is conducted. (1) The paper examines the existence of corporate maturity
mismatch of investment and financing in China, and examines the extent of the
maturity mismatch in each life cycle of companies deeply. The results show that the
maturity mismatch is the most serious in the mature stage of companies. (2) The
research focuses on the impact of an aspiration gap on corporate maturity mismatch.
The empirical analysis result of this study proves that the maturity mismatch will be
exacerbated when there is an aspiration gap, and it is most significant in the growing
companies, followed by the mature companies, but has no significant effect on the
recession companies. (3) From the perspective of external environment, this paper
tests the moderating effect of monetary policies and banking competition. The result
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